United States: Portfolio Strategy - US Equity Views: The Multiple Mystery: At what P/E should the market trade? (英文)
GLOBAL INVESTMENT RESEARCH - October 2009
Investor focus has shifted from earnings to valuation. We are now most often asked at what P/E should the market trade. We offer four approaches: (1) history of multiple expansions from bear market lows suggests 14.1x; (2) our top-down P/E model suggests 13.7x; (3) our DDM-derived 2009 price-target of 1060 implies 13.1x; and (4) the Fed Model implies 16.4x.
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