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Commodity Prices and Volatility:Old Answers to New Questions

GLOBAL INVESTMENT RESEARCH - March 2010

Clients often ask what drives volatility in commodity markets and, similarly, why changes in commodity price forecasts can be large and abrupt, particularly in light of the extreme gyrations in commodity prices and forecasts over the last several years. To answer these questions, this paper lays out the commodity pricing framework that we have developed over the past ten-plus years, governed by the unique physical attributes of commodities—which must be produced and stored before they can be consumed to fuel economic growth.

>> Commodity Prices and Volatility:Old Answers to New Questions,  March 2010 [PDF, 2 MB]