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Outlook 2016


Published by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

December 2, 2015

Top Market Themes for 2016

Steady-as-she-goes global growth. Divergent monetary policy in developed markets. Higher-than-expected inflation. These are just some of the market themes our economists say will define the year ahead. Below you’ll find the top 10 themes from across their 2016 economic outlook reports, as well as Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research forecasts for GDP growth in emerging and advanced economies.

1. Global growth: More stable than it looks

 

2. US inflation: Less downside risk than is priced

 

3. Monetary policy: Divergence in developed markets

 

4. Oil prices: Near-term downside risk, year-end upside

 

5. Relative value in commodities: OpEx over CapEx

 

6. Global saving glut: In reverse

 

7. US equity upside: Limited by the `Yellen call’

 

8. EM risk: Slowdown, not meltdown

 

9. Market liquidity: The ‘new normal’ is less

 

10. Corporate earnings: Only a temporary loss of mojo