A temporary pause
Before lockdown, 40% of daily music consumption happened at work or in the car
Less commuter
listening
More are listening to music that they already know and makes them feel positive
Genre shift
Music video streaming in the US increased during lockdown, compared with the 8 weeks before
Music video streaming rising
US streams for artists such as The Beatles and Fleetwood Mac increased in March, suggesting a shift towards catalog listening
Back to catalog
tuning into new habits
during lockdown
WE SEE SALES ALMOST DOUBLING BY 2030
$142bn
Global music revenue forecast
$77bn
2030E
2019
We believe the disruptions will…
Accelerate the offline to online music shift
82%
of 16-24 year olds in the UK consumed music on Facebook or Instagram in April 2020
Increase the importance of social media for music discovery and promotion
45%
of concert fans said they would continue to watch live streaming events even after physical events resume
Close the gap between the artist and fans
74%
Music streaming on TV and game consoles doubled during lockdown
More in-home, shared consumption
We believe global music industry revenue will slump in 2020, largely due to the disruption of live events
A surge in streaming subscriptionS
We believe that 21% of smartphone users will be streaming music by 2030.
Paid subscribers
2030E
341mn
1.2BN
Key drivers of growth
New markets
Potential uptake
New players
Spotify only operates in 79 markets, compared with Netflix at 194
Only 8% of the global smartphone population paid for music streaming in 2019
New streaming platforms, such as Amazon Music and ByteDance, are entering the market
More streaming
devices
An increase in the number of streaming devices available, such as smart speakers, smartphones and tablets, is enabling easier music consumption
Prices may rise
The average price of a standard music streaming subscription has remained unchanged at $9.99 for the past decade, while Netflix prices have risen around 5-8% every year over 2014-2019.
As the streaming market strengthens, we expect music streaming prices to rise.
And here's where the money you spend on streaming goes...
Developed Markets
Emerging Markets
Japan
USA
UK
China
Germany
18%
42%
3%
17%
6%
28%
21%
49%
22%
51%
3%
23%
14%
37%
Consumer
$10.00
Platform
$3.30
Labels
$3.80
Publishers
$0.60
Artists
$1.70
Songwriters
$0.60
Read the latest Music in the Air report for more on the future of the music industry
Access the report
Paid subscribers
2019
Compare the uptake in streaming across regions:
...followed by a strong rebound as the crisis drives the offline to online shift.
The global music industry has been hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, but the slump is likely to be short-lived, according to Goldman Sachs Research. The habits we’ve formed during lockdown, such as relying on social media and rediscovering old tracks, are set to accelerate the online shift and propel global music revenues to new highs.
The Show Must Go On
Music in the Air
of 16-34 year olds in the US reported using music streaming services in 2019
2018
Sources +
A TEMPORARY PAUSE: IFPI Global Music Report 2020, Music & Copyright, OMDIA, PWC, Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
TUNING INTO NEW HABITS: Spotify, Nielsen, Media Research, Alpha Data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
OUR LONG TERM GROWTH OUTLOOK: Nielsen, BPI, IFPI Music Consumer Study 2019, Bandsintown
A SURGE IN STREAMING: IFPI Global Music Report 2020, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
KEY DRIVERS: IFPI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
PRICES MAY RISE: Company data, data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
WHO RECEIVES THE $10 YOU SPEND ON STREAMING?: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Sources -
2030E
Less commuter
listening
More in-home, shared consumption
Back to catalog
Music video streaming rising
More are listening to music
that they already know and makes them feel positive
Genre shift