In 2024, the ■ recorded music and ■ live music segments grew slower than expected. But both segments—and live music in particular—are expected to pick up pace in 2025. Goldman Sachs Research projects global music revenues to grow by 7.7% year-on-year in 2025.
Source: Music and Copyright, company data, Goldman Sachs Research, IFPI Global Music Report 2025
The forecast for the music market in 2025
Global Music market revenues ($bn) and % growth
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“Last year, you had the Olympics and the Euro soccer tournament—which meant there were fewer stadiums that were able to host live concerts.”
Stephen Laszczyk
Goldman Sachs Research
This year, we expect more stadium capacity driving higher ticket sales.”
Stephen Laszczyk
Goldman Sachs Research
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The momentum of streaming services slowed last year, in terms of revenues—in part because of the maturation of paid streaming penetration in developed markets, as well as subscribers’ shift towards discounted plans. Goldman Sachs Research has lowered its forecasts for the growth of paid streaming revenues slightly, to 9% and 9.4% in 2025 and 2026 respectively (versus 10.9% and 9.9% earlier). In the longer term, though, our analysts continue to expect the future of streaming to be robust.
Source: Goldman Sachs Research, IFPI Global Music Report 2025
One in five internet users could be a paid streaming subscriber by 2035
STREAMING PENETRATION BY MARKET (AS PERCENTAGE OF INTERNET USERS)
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“From 752 million paid streaming subscribers in 2024, we estimate the industry to grow to 1.5 billion subscribers by 2035.”
Eric Sheridan
Goldman Sachs Research
Through the 2010s, developed markets drove global subscriber growth, as penetration rose rapidly from 3% in 2014 to 38% in 2024, on our analysts’ estimates. However, this growth began to decelerate to high single digits in 2023-24 as the streaming market matured. Goldman Sachs Research forecasts mid-single digit growth for developed markets such as the US and the UK over the next five years. Most developed markets will reach peak penetration at around 75% by 2035, our analysts expect.
Source: IFPI Global Music Report 2025, Goldman Sachs Research
Subscriptions continue to slow in developed markets
PAID SUBSCRIBER YEAR-ON-YEAR GROWTH
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“In developed markets, we find that music streaming penetration is still lagging other forms of entertainment such as video or gaming.”
Eric Sheridan
Goldman Sachs Research
In 2024, streaming penetration in emerging markets was just 8%, and our analysts expect that to rise to 14% in a decade—which still leaves an untapped audience of billions. These markets are often more price sensitive, so music streamers may have to work harder to turn listeners into paying subscribers. But the process is under way. Last year, our analysts say, emerging markets contributed 60% of new subscribers.
Source: Goldman Sachs Research, IFPI Global Music Report 2024
The real subscription growth is in emerging markets
PERCENTAGE OF NET PAID SUBSCRIBER ADDITIONS FROM DEVELOPED MARKETS AND EMERGING MARKETS
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“In emerging markets, the priority will likely remain volume growth over monetization, although we’re already beginning to see improving monetization across several large emerging markets in Asia and Latin America.”
Eric Sheridan
Goldman Sachs Research
The average spend in the US on paid music streaming is around $14 per month, compared with $69 for streaming video users.
Even as a major round of price increases on streaming platforms is under way, our analysts believe there will be more regular increases in the future. Thus far, music streaming has lagged on-demand video streaming in terms of price; in the US, the monthly subscription price for streaming video has been rising by 15% nearly every two years for the past decade, whereas music streaming prices have been largely stagnant.
Source: Deloitte's 2025 Digital Media Trends consumer survey
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Music streaming
Streaming video on demand
AVERAGE MONTHLY SPEND FOR A US PAID ACCOUNT
$14
$69
Music streamers are keen to make more money off their platforms
“We see increased confidence among industry participants that price increases will happen every 12-24 months going forward.”
Eric Sheridan
Goldman Sachs Research
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In the US, one out of every five music listeners is considered a superfan of at least one artist.
Goldman Sachs Research
The music business could find further opportunity in segmenting its audiences and targeting the “superfan”—the heaviest listeners of streaming music, who may pay more for premium audio quality, early access to merchandise and events, and exclusive content. Our analysts estimate that monetizing these superfans better could add $6.6 billion to the industry’s revenues by 2035—a 21% uplift to paid streaming revenues.
In the US, one out of every five music listeners is considered a superfan of at least one artist, and consumer data suggests that 30% of listeners in the UK fall into that category.
Source: Luminate
Monetizing the superfan
AVERAGE SPENDING PER MONTH, 3Q24
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“Right now, everyone pays the same flat fee for a music streaming subscription—but back in the CD world, it was not that way. A heavy listener bought more CDs. So the industry could monetize these superfans better."
Eric Sheridan
Goldman Sachs Research
Our analysts expect live music to grow at a 7.2% compounded annual growth rate between 2024 and 2030. This is underpinned by demand from millennials and Gen Z. The live music industry shows resilience in times of economic uncertainty. Spending on live music in the US has, in fact, grown during recent recessionary periods. For this reason, the industry has seen a 76% rise in ticket revenue between 2019 and 2024. Tickets have gotten more expensive, seemingly without affecting the growth of live music. The average ticket price for a concert in one of the top 100 worldwide tours was $136 in 2024—50% higher than the $91 price in 2019.
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
The demand for live music is still strong
LIVE MUSIC SPENDING GROWTH (INDEXED TO 1990) VS CPE AND OTHER FORMS OF ENTERTAINMENT
“During Covid, consumers used social media more frequently to connect with artists and musicians. Artists have also learned how to leverage social media to drive fans into their concerts.”
Stephen Laszczyk
Goldman Sachs Research
