2023 Outlooks

Shape your perspective on the year ahead with insights from economists and strategists across Goldman Sachs. Over the coming weeks, we’ll be pulling together outlooks that cover expectations for economic growth, unemployment, interest rates and more, giving you insight into the trends likely to shape global economies and markets in 2023.

Featured Insights

Key analysis from this year’s Outlooks.

ARTICLES

US Stocks are Forecast to Have Less Pain but No Gain in 2023

“Put simply, zero earnings growth will drive zero appreciation in the stock market,” David Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist, wrote in the team’s 2023 Outlook.

ARTICLES

The Bear Market in Global Stocks is Forecast to Get Deeper in 2023

The bear market in stock markets is forecast to intensify before giving way to more hopeful signals later in 2023, according to Goldman Sachs Research.

ARTICLES

Why the US is Expected to Escape Recession in 2023

The U.S. will probably stick a soft landing next year: the world’s largest economy is forecast to narrowly avoid a recession as inflation fades and unemployment nudges up slightly, according to Goldman Sachs Research.

Latest Outlooks

The latest year-ahead reports published from around the firm.

GOLDMAN SACHS RESEARCH

Macro Outlook 2023: This Cycle Is Different

Global growth slowed through 2022 on a diminishing reopening boost, fiscal and monetary tightening, China’s Covid restrictions and property slump, and the Russia-Ukraine war. Goldman Sachs Research analysts expect global growth of just 1.8% in 2023, as US resilience contrasts with a European recession and a bumpy reopening in China.

GOLDMAN SACHS RESEARCH

2023 US Economic Outlook: Approaching a Soft Land

The key macroeconomic question of the year has been whether inflationary overheating can be reversed without a recession. Analysis from Goldman Sachs Research economists suggests that the answer is yes—an extended period of below-potential growth can gradually reverse labor market overheating and bring down wage growth and ultimately inflation, providing a feasible if challenging path to a soft landing.

GOLDMAN SACHS RESEARCH

2023 Europe Outlook: Milder Recession, Higher Terminal Rate

Goldmans Sachs Research economists maintain their long-held view that the energy crisis will push the European economy into recession this winter, as surveys and production data point to a sizeable slowing in energy-intensive industries, and high inflation will reduce real household incomes. But they now see a shallower recession as the hard data have remained surprisingly resilient, the rebalancing of the gas market has reduced the risk of energy rationing and governments have provided significant fiscal support.

GOLDMAN SACHS RESEARCH

Asia Views: 2023 Outlook: Inflation Peaks and Growth Troughs

Economic growth is likely to start 2023 on the weak side across most of the Asia-Pacific, according to Goldman Sachs Research economists, as a fading reopening boost, slowing global manufacturing cycle, and past monetary tightening weigh on activity. As these headwinds fade and China’s reopening gets underway, they expect growth to reaccelerate. While most of our economists’ GDP forecasts are a little below consensus for 2023 as a whole, they are more positive on second-half growth, particularly in China.

GOLDMAN SACHS RESEARCH

China 2023 Outlook: After Winter Comes Spring

After a very challenging 2022, Goldman Sachs Research economists expect China GDP growth to accelerate from 3.0% this year to 4.5% next year on the back of China’s potential exit from its zero-Covid policy, which they assume will start shortly after the “Two Sessions” in March. China’s reopening would imply a strong consumption rebound, firming core inflation, and gradually normalizing cyclical policies in 2023.

GOLDMAN SACHS RESEARCH

Japan Economics 2023 Outlook: Focus on Wage Growth and BOJ Leadership Change

While our Goldman Sachs Research economists expect Japan’s real GDP growth to slow to 1.3% in 2023, from 1.5% in 2022, they look for growth to continue to outpace its potential. Consumption is likely to directly benefit from economic reopening, and they also expect capex to remain firm on the back of pent-up demand, labor shortages due both to demographics and reopening, and supply chain rebuilding.

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