Learning from a Century of US Recessions

04 FEB 2019
TOPIC: Economic Outlooks

A review of the last 100 years of US recessions suggests that they can be boiled down to five major causes: industrial shocks, oil supply shocks, inflationary overheating followed by aggressive Fed tightening, private sector financial imbalances, and fiscal tightening. In this report, Goldman Sachs Research’s economists argue that several of these “usual suspects” have become structurally less threatening over the last 30 years, and the financial risks that are still important triggers today are not flashing red as they did before the 2007 crisis.      

Goldman Sachs Research

Learning from a Century of US Recessions

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