The potential geopolitical, economic, and asset implications of the conflict unfolding between Russia and the West over Ukraine are Top of Mind.
Goldman Sachs Research speaks to three Russia experts for context and views on the unfolding crisis in Ukraine: former US senior intelligence officer Andrea Kendall-Taylor; Director of the Moscow Center of the Carnegie Endowment, Dmitri Trenin; and Professor at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, Michael Mandelbaum. The three guests have divergent views as to what led to this crisis, but, now that the outcome is clear, Kendall-Taylor believes Russia may not relent until it has secured a large swath of Ukrainian territory, and Trenin envisions a more permanent rupture between Russia and the West. In addition, Eddie Fishman of the Center for New American Security as well as Goldman Sachs analysts Alec Phillips and Clemens Grafe look at how sanctions and their economic and market impacts will differ from the 2014 conflict in Crimea. Last, Jeff Currie argues that a tighter backdrop for commodities leaves them more vulnerable to even small disruptions, and the de-globalization trend these geopolitical risks reflect could reinforce the other major global concern today—inflation.