India Macro Outlook 2021: Vaccine to Extend Rebound in 2022
Published on27 NOV 2020
Goldman Sachs Research expects that the broad-based availability of an effective vaccine in India could allow containment policies and mobility to normalize by mid-2022. This should allow a meaningful activity rebound in 2021, while the actual pace of the rebound will be restrained by some economic scarring and a number of factors including a weak labor market, tighter credit supply conditions and a limited impetus from fiscal policy. Overall, we expect real GDP growth to rebound to 13% in FY22 (above consensus expectations of 10.9%), after an expected -10.3% contraction in FY21.
