The Unsteady Undertow Commands the Seas (Temporarily)
Investment Strategy Group
Goldman Sachs Private Wealth Management
October 14, 2018
The recent market downdraft has rekindled fears that the longest bull market in history is coming to an end. But the steady factors that have underpinned this expansion—solid US economic growth, robust corporate earnings, record buybacks and relatively low inflation and interest rates—remain in place and will likely continue to prevail over the unsteady undertow of risks, according to a new report released by the Goldman Sachs’ Investment Strategy Group. “As we review the geopolitical developments of 2018, it is clear that some of the risks have abated while others have increased,” noted the authors, who continue to maintain a low 10 percent probability of recession. “With the exception of a significant spike in oil prices…we believe that the net impact of these shifts is not material enough to derail the US economic expansion or bull market.”
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The Investment Strategy Group is a part of the Investment Management Division of Goldman Sachs and is not a part of the Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research (GIR) Department. The views and opinions expressed by the Investment Strategy Group may differ from the views and opinions expressed by GIR or other departments or divisions of Goldman Sachs.