World Cup Prediction Model Update

June 26, 2014

Economists from our Global Investment Research Division (GIR) have updated their statistical model of the World Cup now that the Knockout Round is set. Brazil remains the predicted winner, expected to defeat the Netherlands, which had been predicted to fall to Brazil in the round of 16 originally.

Here is how GIR's model has the rest of the Cup playing out:

Three of the predicted semi-finalists remain the same from the model's original prediction: Brazil, Germany and Argentina. Brazil, while given a 48.5% chance of winning the Cup in the original model, has been taken down a notch slightly, with a 42.6% chance of winning it all. The Netherlands, on the other hand, has seen its probability of taking the trophy climb to 17.7% from 5.6% and is now seen as the most likely team to play Brazil for the title. Spain, of course, went from a strong 21.8% chance of playing in the final to being ousted from the Cup in the group stage. Meanwhile the United States has defied the odds and advanced to the Knockout Round, but maintains a relatively low probability of winning the championship at 0.4%.

The chart below highlights the latest probabilities for each team to reach different stages of the tournament: