Bear Repair: The Bumpy Road to Recovery

Goldman Sachs Research analysts expect the next bull market to be ‘Fatter & Flatter’ than the last. Goldman Sachs Research’s proprietary indicators, the Bull/Bear Market indicator (GSBLBR) and the Risk Appetite indicator (GSRAII), attempt to capture the fundamental and sentiment factors that are important around inflection points. Current levels of these indicators would suggest that we are not yet at the market trough. Our analysts argue that something has to give: either returns stay low and volatile for a long time or the market is likely to re-test its lows before a genuine trough is established.