India 2024 Outlook: Port of calm in a “Higher for Longer” world

Goldman Sachs Research economists expect real GDP growth in India to remain stable at 6.3% yoy, from our estimate of 6.4% growth in 2023, but it is likely to be a tale of two halves. Subsidies and transfer payments as we head into the general elections in Q2 2024 will likely be the growth driver in the first half. Post-elections, they expect investment growth to re-accelerate, especially from the private side. Our economists expect the government to continue its focus on capital spending, given the medium-term fiscal consolidation path, the rate of growth in capex will likely decrease from next fiscal year. Risks around the growth outlook are evenly balanced in their view with the main domestic risk emanating from political uncertainty with elections approaching in Q2 2024.