Short-form video-rization: Assessing the Potential Ceiling and Lessons from China

Immersive short-form video (SFV) has become the largest single time spent format in the China internet space. Goldman Sachs Research introduces its bear/base/bull case at 21%/25%/30% by 2025E, after assessing penetration potential from the lens of categories/users/merchants/facilitators. Other swings to China’s eCommerce landscape over the next few years will depend on SFV players’ success expanding into shelf-based shopping. Goldman Sachs Research analysts assess their different contribution scenarios, estimating SFV players could in aggregate command 16%/22/33% of eCommerce GMV share by 2025E, vs 12% in 2021, resulting in incremental share loss from traditional eCommerce players.