Amid the dual crises of Covid and the war in Ukraine, globalization is arguably facing its biggest test of the post-Cold War era. Where globalization is heading, and what that means for the economy, markets, and society, is Top of Mind.
For answers, Goldman Sachs Research speaks with the Peterson Institute’s Adam Posen, Harvard’s Dani Rodrik, former GSAM Chairman Jim O’Neill, and Goldman Sachs analysts, who disagree on the future of globalization and its economic implications, including whether it will reinforce current red-hot inflation or instead lead to the return of secular stagnation. They then dig into what this all means for assets. Posen and O’Neill argue that the shifts in globalization they expect, as well as the weaponization of finance in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, will have only limited implications for the Dollar, while Goldman Sachs’ Zach Pandl argues that the Dollar’s dominance will likely further erode over the coming years, reinforcing his view that the Dollar will weaken over the medium term. Finally, Goldman Sachs' Jeff Currie argues that the shifts in globalization he expects only strengthen the bull case for commodities.