Allison Nathan of Goldman Sachs Research dives into macro developments that are top of mind for investors, executives and policymakers.
Central banks’ aggressive policy tightening has raised concerns about what could break in a global financial system accustomed to low rates. Which financial stability risks are worth watching, whether policymakers have the tools to manage those risks, and if they could prompt central banks to slow or even pause tightening, is Top of Mind.
The 20th Party Congress of the Chinese Communist Party promises to be one of the most significant events in China’s modern history, not only because President Xi is widely expected to secure a rare third term, but also as it comes amid the country’s slowest pace of growth in decades. Whether the Congress marks an inflection point for economic policy, and what that means for growth and markets, is Top of Mind.
In the fight to combat high inflation, US and European central banks have embarked on aggressive tightening paths that seem all but guaranteed to continue in the near term. But how much damage to economic growth will they ultimately have to inflict to win this fight? In the US, a heated debate has emerged about whether the Fed can rebalance an overheated labor market—a key requirement to tame inflation—without a sharp rise in unemployment. And in the Euro area, the ECB is stuck between a rock and a hard place as the region remains in the throes of an energy crisis that is both weighing on growth and contributing to high inflation.