Goldman Sachs’ research analysts and executives from across the technology, media, and telecoms landscape gathered this week for the firm’s inaugural Communacopia + Technology conference, a four-day event in San Francisco.
We polled 127 of the companies and investors represented at the event to understand everything from their recession expectations to where they see innovation across their industries, and even which mobile apps they’d struggle to give up. Here’s what they had to say:
Streaming remains strong (mostly): 49% of respondents said they weren’t planning to change their subscriptions this year, and a further 10% of respondents plan to add services. That said, some streaming overload may be out there: 31% of respondents plan to prune one of their subscriptions.
A split on streaming’s profitability: Compared with traditional cable and broadcast networks, 47% of respondents thought streaming would be just as profitable, if not more so – while exactly half of respondents anticipate streaming will be less profitable than linear TV over the long term.
The box office loses some mojo: In 2019, the North American box office took in $11 billion. 43% of respondents said that number will never be reached again. Only 11% of replies expected the box office to reach that figure in 2023.
The metaverse is for fun and games: 52% of poll takers think the most promising market for the metaverse in the next three years is gaming. An additional 21% think it’s other entertainment (ie. concerts and sports).
Can’t let YouTube go: More than a third (36%) of those polled said YouTube would be the hardest app to do without. And while Meta has the second-most popular app, Instagram, with 31% of respondents selecting it as their most essential app, only 5% picked Facebook.
Fintech’s quieter side: Fintech and crypto are often spoken of at the same time, but a deep distinction is made among those who took our poll. Only 11% saw crypto as the most promising area for investors within fintech over the next three years. The big opportunity? Payments processing, which got 36% of the vote.
IT spend on the rise: The majority (52%) of respondents expect enterprise IT spending to grow by more than 5% in 2023. That may be why poll takers are optimistic stocks in cloud-computing companies will outperform the S&P 500 over the next year: Almost half (49%) expect those companies to exceed S&P gains by 1 – 10%; 22% expect those gains to be greater than 10%.
Motoring becomes electric: 38% of respondents anticipate their next car would be a fully electric vehicle and 34% expect theirs would at least be hybrid (including plug-in hybrid). Expectations around self-driving vehicles were more long term: Almost half of those polled expect fully autonomous cars will be available for personal use in the next 10 years, versus only 7% who expect the same technology to arrive in the next one to three years.
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