Regularly updated insights and analysis on market shifts, how new technologies are transforming industries, and the outlook for the global economy, from across Goldman Sachs.
As the race for the 2024 US presidential election heats up, history suggests economic metrics can help predict the most likely outcome, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
The price of a barrel of oil is likely to trade between $70 and $100 for most of 2024, according to Asset & Wealth Management Investment Strategy Group (ISG) at Goldman Sachs.
The Japanese equity market is forecast by Goldman Sachs Research to rally again in 2024, boosted by solid global economic growth and stock market reform.
As changes in everything from technology and interest rates to sustainability concerns ripple through the corporate world, private equity will have advantages compared to public market investing when it comes to large-scale company transformation for the modern economy. However private equity’s playbook will likely be quite different than the past, according to Goldman Sachs Asset Management.
In their 2024 US Equity Outlook, Goldman Sachs Research expects US stocks to have a modest return next year, as above-consensus economic growth is partly offset by high equity valuations.
In their 2024 Outlook, Goldman Sachs Asset Management expects the shift for AI from the excitement phase into the deployment phase to continue.
At a time when some are calling for a pause on the development of generative artificial intelligence, Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of NVIDIA, has an argument for accelerating the work: AI advances are going to provide tools to better understand the technology and to make it safer, Huang said in a discussion with Goldman Sachs Asset Management.
In their 2024 US Economic Outlook, Goldman Sachs Research forecasts the US economy to easily beat consensus expectations again in 2024.
In their 2024 UK Outlook, Goldman Sachs Research predicts GDP growth in the UK to improve modestly in the year ahead.
In their 2024 Macro Outlook, Goldman Sachs Research explains why they expect the global economy to outperform expectations in 2024 — just as it did in 2023.
US mortgage rates are forecast to be higher than expected in the coming year, according to Goldman Sachs Research. Home prices are also projected to increase, even as borrowing costs remain elevated.
Generative artificial intelligence has the potential to automate many work tasks and eventually boost global economic growth: Goldman Sachs Research forecasts AI will start having a measurable impact on US GDP in 2027 and begin affecting growth in other economies around the world in the years that follow.
It wasn’t long ago rising demand and component shortages sparked concern that “greenflation” would drive up prices for the batteries used in electric vehicles. That’s subsiding as prices cool for battery metals, which could help make EVs more competitive with traditional cars more quickly.
Earlier this year, the global market for anti-obesity medications (AOMs) reached $6 billion on an annualized basis. By 2030, it could grow by more than 16 times to $100 billion, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
As sustainable investing matures and gains more prominence, efforts to provide the quantitative information to support investors’ goals are becoming more complex. Increasingly sophisticated data capabilities are needed to answer questions related to environmental impact, inclusivity and more, according to Sebastiaan Reinders, head of innovation and research at Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s Sustainable Investing and Innovation Platform.
Today’s geopolitical shocks are connected by a great-power credibility crisis. It is increasingly apparent that neither the United States nor China is both willing and able to singlehandedly uphold the international order. This crisis of credibility is compounding geopolitical instability and uncertainty.
The changes that generative artificial intelligence promises to bring to many industries will likely drive a supercycle of mergers and acquisitions, according a report from Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets. But a number of things may need to be in place before M&A takes off.
After 300 years of hydrocarbons driving the global economy, this century is witnessing the rise of green electric power as a primary source of energy. The shift is being helped along by rising social acceptance of green power, growing policy support, and increasingly attractive economics — most capital expenditures for electrification in Europe are deflationary compared with hydrocarbon alternatives, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
Americans who are less familiar with basic financial concepts may, counterintuitively, be more likely to manage their own retirement savings. Our survey also found that savers who are more financially literate tend to have less stress when it comes to managing money and the financial priorities that come with retirement.
Saudi Arabia’s focus on diversifying its economy beyond oil is showing results, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
Companies in the US with lower credit ratings are starting to accept that interest rates may not drift lower anytime soon. That means a growing number of them are beginning to refinance debt and tap the bond market, rather than holding out and hoping the Federal Reserve will cut rate rates, says Christina Minnis, head of Global Credit Finance and head of Global Acquisition Finance in Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets.
More than half of the investors surveyed in Goldman Sachs’ Bi-Annual Equity Capital Markets Survey said that they are more bullish than they were a year ago. While 46% of investors believe the recession outlook for this year and the first quarter of 2024 is still uncertain, a growing number of investors (41%) are planning for a soft landing — and sentiment is shifting accordingly.
As China’s economy sputters, investors are asking whether the country could repeat Japan’s experience in the 1990s. Goldman Sachs Research finds that even though there are some key similarities between the two situations, China’s “Japanification” is far from certain.
Issuance of US convertible bonds — debt securities with an option to be converted into stock — has jumped this year as companies refinance their existing convertible notes and take advantage of the securities to lower borrowing costs, according to Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets.
Government debt of the world’s developed economies has soared since the financial crisis and continues to grow. As central banks drive up interest rates to contend with a spike in inflation, those debt burdens are an increasing source of concern that could ripple through the bond market, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
The US consumer has been a source of strength for the economy in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. But cracks may be starting to show in consumer finances, according to PayPal CEO Dan Schulman. While the economy is “not out of the woods yet,” he adds, “inflation is starting to come down” and we’re “moving in the right direction.”
The generative artificial intelligence (AI) tools that have captured the public imagination this year have also created significant advances for systematic investing, says Dennis Walsh, global co-head, Quantitative Investment Strategies (QIS), Goldman Sachs Asset Management.
Regardless of whether the US economy succumbs to a recession this year or next, “digital is going to be a tailwind,” says Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen. And while the way customers and large businesses are talking about content and marketing may have shifted somewhat, “we still see a lot of interest in digital,” he says.
The yield curve — the difference between yields of 10- and two-year US Treasuries — has long been seen as a predictor of recession: When investors are fearful, they tend to buy up 10-year Treasuries, causing the yield to fall below the interest rate of shorter-term securities.
Critical minerals make the modern digital economy work, but increased geopolitical competition means nations and companies will need to adopt new approaches to build more diverse and resilient supply chains of these vital materials.
The explosion of interest in artificial intelligence this year has fueled a major rally in technology stocks, with a concentrated group of large US companies leading the market higher. This slate of “early winners,” including makers of semiconductors needed to build AI technology and cloud service providers with the computing infrastructure to commercialize it, returned roughly 60% through the first eight months of 2023, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
As discussions in Washington over federal spending continue, the potential for a government shutdown is growing. A shutdown would probably have a modest effect on the economy, which may also make a sustained impasse over spending more likely, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
The U.S. money supply is shrinking for the first time since 1949, as savings deposits decline and the Federal Reserve shrinks its $8 trillion balance sheet. The drop stems mostly from changes in Fed policy and rising interest rates, but it says little about the prospects for inflation or the likelihood of recession, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
There are signs investors are increasingly bullish, as the U.S. economy appears headed for a soft landing and inflation cools. However markets are already priced for an improving outlook for growth, suggesting some investors could be in for disappointment in the coming months, says Christian Mueller-Glissmann, head of asset allocation research within portfolio strategy at Goldman Sachs Research.
The contraction of the German economy, which has made it a laggard among developed nations this year, has many causes. Growth has been hurt by the uneven post-pandemic recovery in China, by energy shortages, by inflationary pressures and more. Now, Europe’s largest economy faces multiple transitions necessary to address these challenges, according to Wolfgang Fink, CEO of Goldman Sachs for Germany and Austria.
As investors look to understand how the boom in generative artificial intelligence may play out, lessons from the adoption of electricity and the internet may offer insight into how AI innovation will filter through financial markets, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
Innovations in electricity and personal computers unleashed investment booms of as much as 2% of U.S. GDP as the technologies were adopted into the broader economy. Now, investment in artificial intelligence is ramping up quickly and could eventually have an even bigger impact on GDP, according to Goldman Sachs Economics Research.
The music industry is on the cusp of another major structural change, according to Goldman Sachs Research. While the industry is yet to fully monetize its content, with music streaming services seeing less revenue for every song streamed, our analysts expect the sector to grow and capture new business opportunities.
The surge in global investment into clean technologies is bolstering demand for the commodities needed to build electric vehicles, renewable power tech and energy storage. Green metals – aluminum, copper, nickel, lithium and cobalt – are poised to benefit from the trend throughout the decade and likely beyond, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
U.K. economic growth is projected to be flat for the rest of the year as tighter monetary policy slows expansion, according to the Asset & Wealth Management Investment Strategy Group (ISG) at Goldman Sachs.
China’s renminbi has gained market share in international payments, particularly in the country’s own cross-border transactions, as policymakers push for the currency to be used more widely. But the renminbi’s use remains limited globally, especially relative to the size of China’s GDP and its influence in trade, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
The EU has become a major player in international debt markets as a steady issuer of safe assets — an advent that’s been seen as a watershed moment for the euro area, according to Goldman Sachs Research. But while the bloc has successfully scaled up as an issuer, EU bonds trail those of France and Germany’s bund in some respects despite the EU’s top AAA credit rating.
The probability of a U.S. recession in the coming year has declined, as recent economic data signal that bringing inflation down to an acceptable level will not require a downturn, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
A year ago, with the outbreak of war in Ukraine and the disruption of energy supplies, Goldman Sachs Research predicted that the oil and gas industry would emerge from a prolonged period of underinvestment and embrace significant new projects. Now, the investment boom has arrived. The industry has 70 major projects under development worldwide, a 25% increase from 2020, according to Top Projects, GS Research’s 20th annual analysis of the energy sector. We spoke with Michele Della Vigna, head of Goldman Sachs natural resources research in EMEA, about rising investment, and what that means for OPEC and energy prices.
As interest rates climb and inflation shows signs of cooling — where are stocks in the market cycle? Equities markets usually have four phases, and right now stocks are in the “optimism” stage, according to our Chief Global Equity Market Strategist Peter Oppenheimer. He expects relatively low returns from here as stocks trade in a wide range.
Advances in extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV) — a technology some experts did not think would work in production just a few years ago—are transforming computer chip making. These technological gains are poised to help push today’s $600 billion global semiconductor industry to $1 trillion by the end of the decade, powering artificial intelligence (AI), high-end computing, and autonomous driving, among other advances, according to Alexander Duval, lead analyst for Europe tech hardware and semiconductors for Goldman Sachs Research.
As India’s population of 1.4 billion people becomes the world’s largest, its GDP is forecast to expand dramatically. Goldman Sachs Research projects India will have the world’s second-largest economy by 2075.
The global pharmaceutical sector has around $700 billion at its disposal to acquire other companies and invest in research and development, according to Goldman Sachs Research. That war chest will be important as patents expire for some of the industry’s blockbuster drugs.
At the start of the year, Asset & Wealth Management Investment Strategy Group (ISG) at Goldman Sachs laid out a base case for the S&P 500 to finish 2023 with a total return in low double digits at the midpoint of its 4,200 to 4,300 target range. Having reached that mark with more than half the year left to go, ISG believes the rally may have more room to run.
Artificial intelligence is evolving so quickly that established companies are rushing to jump on board and stake their futures on it. But doing so could also pose a risk to their reputations if they are not thoughtful, says Ginni Rometty, former chairman, president, and chief executive officer of IBM.
Fifteen years after producing a key report on women in the global workforce, Goldman Sachs Research finds there’s been progress since then in women’s education and participation in the job market. But even so, gender gaps in pay and employment are still persistent, and these inequities threaten to hold back many economies that are beset by a shrinking working-age population.
As the U.K. contends with one of the highest inflation rates among advanced economies, there are signs that a drop in immigration from the Continent has contributed to an overheated job market as well as higher inflation, according to Goldman Sachs Research. And while overall immigration has increased since Britons voted to leave the EU, more people are coming to the U.K. from outside of Europe, and many are migrating for humanitarian reasons and to study.
“We’re on the eve of a clean energy revolution in Europe,” says Alberto Gandolfi, head of the European Utilities Research team. While the region has long had an agenda for green energy, he says the energy crisis and policy in the U.S. have helped galvanize those efforts.
Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs) have played an important role in the education and equality of Black Americans for more than 185 years. But even as racial disparities in American education persist, HBCUs are systemically underfunded, receive fewer private donations, and have smaller endowments. For these institutions to thrive, they need broad, intentional, and sustainable financial commitments, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
The macroeconomic backdrop for IPOs in the U.S. is improving as stock market prices stabilize and confidence increases among corporate executives, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
The stock market capitalization of emerging markets is forecast to eclipse that of the U.S. and other developed markets in the coming years, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
Lithium is a key ingredient in batteries for electric cars and renewable power storage, making it a critical commodity for the energy transition to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. Most of the world’s lithium supply is currently produced in Australia and processed in China, but that could change during the next decade as new technology such as direct lithium extraction, or DLE, helps ramp up production of this key resource from brine, according to Hugo Nicolaci, an analyst in Goldman Sachs Research.
The probability of a U.S. recession in the coming year has declined, as the risk of a disruptive debt-ceiling fight has disappeared and stress in the banking sector appears to be only a modest drag on the economy, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
Even as some European stocks give U.S. equities a run for their money this year, investors still give the region’s companies a lower valuation than their counterparts across the Atlantic. There are signs, however, that could change, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
Even as China’s economy has surged following the dismantling of zero-Covid restrictions, youth unemployment has stayed stubbornly high. Part of the reason is probably because of a mismatch between the jobs young people are studying for and the roles that are available, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
Commercial real estate – and office buildings in particular – are going through a challenging transition: Climbing interest rates are rippling through the sector at the same time occupants are seeking out newer, more sustainable architecture in new parts of the country.
Bill Gates doesn’t think any one company will dominate AI, but he does see at least one big opportunity that’s ripe for the taking.
As politicians in Washington negotiate over a deal on the debt limit, Treasury officials may soon have to clear another hurdle: issuing around $1 trillion of debt in about six months, according to estimates from the Short-Term Interest Rates Trading desk at Goldman Sachs.
The global housing market seems to be stabilizing faster than expected despite months of rising mortgage rates, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
For OpenAI co-founder and president Greg Brockman it’s not only time to start thinking about artificial intelligence and products like his own company’s ChatGPT text-based AI, but also the move toward even more potent systems and technology.
The case for encouraging, empowering, and enabling women entrepreneurs is straightforward: around the world, female entrepreneurs drive both economic growth and help to reduce poverty. According to the World Bank, there are now about 8 million to 10 million formal small and medium enterprises (SMEs) with at least one female owner in developing countries.
There are growing signs that overheated job markets in the U.S. and other developed economies are cooling, according to Goldman Sachs Research. The surprise is that labor markets are rebalancing, at least so far, without a spike in unemployment or setting off a recession.
Greece is on the cusp of regaining investment grade status more than 12 years after losing that important credit rating, marking a sharp reversal for an economy that was roiled during the euro area’s sovereign debt crisis.
More than three-quarters of small business owners say they are concerned about their ability to access capital as banking stress prompts smaller institutions to tighten credit, according to our 10,000 Small Businesses Voices initiative, which conducts regular surveys of small enterprises in the U.S.
As the U.S. and China coexist, compete, and confront each other to determine who will set the geopolitical rules, they will either court or thwart an emerging group of countries to gain an edge. This new class of influential nations are the geopolitical swing states of the 21st century.
The opportunities for private credit may be expanding even as financial markets grow more turbulent and uncertain, according to Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM).
Basic math tells us that the whole is equal to the sum of its parts. But companies leading a wave of corporate separations clearly feel their parts add up to more than that – and a new paper authored by EY and our M&A structuring team at Goldman Sachs suggests that they’re on to something.
Shareholder activism is on the rise, driven in part by economic uncertainty and a changing regulatory landscape. U.S. companies targeted by activist investors typically outperform their sectors initially — but the results tend to be mixed, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
Even as traders grapple with a slowing economy, banking turmoil and geopolitical worries, stock market volatility in the U.S. is hovering around its lowest level in more than 20 months. With so much uncertainty and turbulence, why have price swings in the equity market been so subdued?
Healthcare — one of the largest sectors of the U.S. economy — is among the many industries with significant opportunities for the use of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), says Salveen Richter, lead analyst for the U.S. biotechnology sector at Goldman Sachs Research.
Big office buildings in large U.S. cities are the most at risk from turmoil in commercial real estate, according to Goldman Sachs Research. There are signs that smaller offices in suburbs, as well as newer buildings in central businesses districts, could be more insulated from the stress.
Goldman Sachs' 2022 Sustainability Report focuses on the how – demonstrating how Goldman Sachs is working with clients to help them achieve their sustainability objectives. The role we take in aiming to meet the increasing demand for sustainable finance advice, tools, and solutions, helps us inform the market and develop new solutions to better support our clients. Specifically, the report captures notable progress around six key themes.
The so-called “creator economy” has mushroomed and is expected to grow even more in the coming years, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
The impact of advances in generative artificial intelligence on society could be comparable to the printing press, according to our Chief Information Officer Marco Argenti.
The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) will spur about $3 trillion investment in renewable energy technology that could double the amount of energy produced by the shale revolution 15 years ago, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
Stress in U.S. banking, which has been concentrated among small and midsize lenders, is likely to hit smaller American businesses the hardest, according to Goldman Sachs Research. The financial jitters that started with Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse may also have a bigger impact outside of large cities.
OPEC’s surprise announcement of a cut in oil production this month shows the group is taking advantage of its ability to raise oil prices without significantly denting demand, according to our economists.
Breakthroughs in generative artificial intelligence have the potential to bring about sweeping changes to the global economy, according to Goldman Sachs Research. As tools using advances in natural language processing work their way into businesses and society, they could drive a 7% (or almost $7 trillion) increase in global GDP and lift productivity growth by 1.5 percentage points over a 10-year period.
"We figured out how to make humans scale," Emad Mostaque, founder and CEO of Stability AI, told an audience at Goldman Sachs 2023 Disruptive Technology Symposium in London.
As funding pours into quantum computing, investors are focused on the potential for this technology to address scientific, business and security problems beyond the reach of today’s conventional computers. There are signs that dramatic impacts could come in the not-too-distant future, according to industry executives who spoke at the Goldman Sachs 2023 Disruptive Technology Symposium.
The flow of money in the U.S. into bond and money-market funds accelerated over the last two weeks amid jitters about the banking sector. The surge added to the shift in flows this year from stocks to lower-risk assets that offer more yield, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
The turbulence among smaller banks in the U.S. is set to slow the economy, raising the likelihood of a recession. But stock and bond markets were offering different signals about whether the U.S. is headed for a hard landing earlier this week, according to Brett Nelson, head of tactical asset allocation for the Asset & Wealth Management Investment Strategy Group (ISG) at Goldman Sachs.
China’s online gaming market is the biggest in the world, but the most compelling opportunity for its native game developers and publishers might be capturing more users outside its borders, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
Higher mortgage rates are taking their toll on housing markets around the world, and sales and prices will likely remain under pressure this year in most G10 economies, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
Recent stress on the global banking system has led to only a slight deterioration in the outlook for economic growth in the euro area and the U.K.
As stress ripples through smaller banks in the U.S., the tightening in lending standards among those institutions is expected to reduce economic growth this year, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
A new report from GS Research looks at oil prices and how OPEC may respond to emerging market conditions
After 10 consecutive interest rate hikes, the Bank of England is balancing the need to control inflation with the risk of increasing rates too far. The policy tightening is likely to weigh heavily on growth via the U.K. housing market, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
The reopening of China and an economic recovery in Korea could shift the center of gravity in Asian stock markets to the north, away from India and ASEAN countries, according to a Goldman Sachs Research report.
The US yield curve inversion widened last week to a level not seen since 1981. In a newly published report, Goldman Sachs Research’s economists question the predictive power of this longtime recession indicator and argue why this time might be different.
A puzzling contrast has emerged in the US labor market in recent months: Announced job cuts keep mounting but official employment data from the government continue to point to resilient demand for workers. Collectively, corporations announced more than 100,000 layoffs in January alone. A new report from Goldman Sachs Research tackles the question of whether the spate of job cuts means the labor market has already entered a downturn.
EV sales will soar to about 73 million units in 2040, up from around 2 million in 2020, according to forecasts by Goldman Sachs Research. The percentage of EVs in worldwide car sales, meanwhile, is expected to rise to 61% from 2% during that span. The share of EV sales is anticipated to be well over 80% in many developed countries.
A wide range of investors think activity in equity capital markets will double in 2023 from the year before, when markets were beset by volatility, according to Goldman Sachs’ Annual Equity Capital Markets Investor Survey.
China’s reopening from Covid-19 restrictions will not only accelerate the country’s economic recovery, but it will also boost global economic growth, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
The political standoff over raising the U.S. federal debt limit will likely be resolved—but it’s still likely to create uncertainty for financial markets if history is repeated.
The French economy was able to keep growing for a large part of 2022 despite a number of challenges. A report from Goldman Sachs Research predicts the country will experience a period of weakness but narrowly avert a recession.
A core pillar of Japan’s ultra-easy monetary policy – known as yield curve control (YCC) – has come under increasing market skepticism in recent months, raising the possibility that the country could eventually abolish it altogether, according to strategists within Goldman Sachs’ Global Banking & Markets.
Passage late last year of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) will impact several sectors, including clean technology, hydrogen, and electric vehicles (EVs). But the effects of the U.S. legislation will extend well beyond those industries, according to a new Goldman Sachs Research report.
The threat of a U.S. recession remains alive in 2023. The consensus estimate on the probability of a meaningful downturn in the American economy in the next 12 months is at 65%, according to Goldman Sachs Research. But our own economic analysis rates that probability much lower, at 35%. David Mericle, our chief U.S. economist, and Alec Phillips, our chief U.S. political economist, elaborate on that lower risk and answer some of the big questions facing the U.S. economy in 2023.
As the transition to a low-carbon future makes batteries critically important, countries are making significant headway in reducing China’s dominance over the supply chain, according to a new Goldman Sachs Research report.
Managing through uncertainty is a business imperative. In recent years, small business owners in the UK have faced the ripple effects of multiple crises, from the Covid-19 pandemic to the war in Ukraine. As the UK faces a potentially long and deep recession, small business owners must, again, plan to withstand a volatile economic climate while seeking, and hoping, to emerge stronger.
The sweeping climate, healthcare and tax bill is estimated to provide more than $390 billion of energy and climate spending over a 10-year period, according to the US Congressional Budget Office, with about $270 billion of that coming in the form of incremental tax incentives for businesses and individuals to pursue and invest in cleaner and more efficient energy sources.
It’s been a challenging year for emerging markets, which faced tighter financial conditions and growth headwinds from the war in Ukraine and China’s property sector. Bond markets in lower-quality developing countries have been hit especially hard amid rising interest rates. We spoke with Kay Haigh, head of emerging market debt in Goldman Sachs Asset Management, and Nick Saunders, head of emerging market corporate debt, about challenges and opportunities posed by a new era for financial markets — one in which easy policy is no longer around to lift all assets.
China relaxed some of its Covid rules this week as the country edges closer to an exit from its zero-Covid policy. But don’t expect a speedy and smooth transition to a full reopening of China’s economy.
The world’s fastest years of economic growth are likely already behind it — expansion is slowing as population growth weakens, according to Goldman Sachs Research. But emerging economies, and powerhouses in Asia in particular, are forecast to keep catching up to richer countries.
Do mass layoffs in Big Tech mean big trouble for the U.S. economy? Probably not, according to a new report from Goldman Sachs Research.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has upended the European energy playbook. To better understand the current situation and future possibilities for the continent’s energy needs, we asked senior leaders throughout Goldman Sachs for their analysis.
The bear market in stock markets is forecast to intensify before giving way to more hopeful signals later in 2023, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
“Put simply, zero earnings growth will drive zero appreciation in the stock market,” David Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist, wrote in the team’s 2023 Outlook.
Covid-related supply-chain disruptions and the inflation they brought about in the U.S. are starting to go back to normal, but some of the reaction to that disruption could cause inflationary pressures of their own, according to a report from Goldman Sachs Research.
The U.S. will probably stick a soft landing next year: the world’s largest economy is forecast to narrowly avoid a recession as inflation fades and unemployment nudges up slightly, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
The way humans interact with computers is poised for a profound change and in the coming years computers will be the ones getting used to us. Developments in language understanding mean everyone from scientists to businesspeople can increasingly use AI tools without learning coding languages.
In a Q&A, Alberto Ramos, head of the Latin America Economic Research team in Global Investment Research, examines Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s presidential-election victory in Brazil and its implications for that country’s economy, fiscal outlook, and investment environment.
Robots are making their first tentative steps from the factory floor into our homes and workplaces. In a recent report, Goldman Sachs Research estimates a $6 billion market (or more) in people-sized-and-shaped robots is achievable in the next 10 to 15 years. Such a market would be able to fill 4% of the projected US manufacturing labor shortage by 2030 and 2% of global elderly care demand by 2035.
Fully self-driving vehicles may still be years away but Goldman Sachs Research analysts believe auto industry profits could rise meaningfully this decade as software becomes increasingly important.
After weeks of financial turmoil, the U.K. is expected to slide into a deeper recession than previously forecast, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
While the recently passed CHIPS Act might serve as a valuable hedge against future semiconductor shortages in the US, it’s not likely to make a dent in supplanting Asia’s dominance in the sector, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
Higher rents were a big driver in September’s higher-than-expected consumer price index (CPI) reading. A new report from Goldman Sachs Research finds such inflation could be the source of persistent inflation “stickiness.”
At a time when stocks are sliding deeper into a bear market, it can be hard (and painful) to remember that equities have the best chance of getting investors an attractive return over the longer term. Portfolios have gotten riskier since the beginning of the year, as bonds and stocks have fallen together. But there are ways investors can insulate portfolios until the turbulence subsides, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
For centuries companies that produce goods have followed a trusted formula: take the planet’s resources, make products, sell them to a to customers that then, after a period of use, throw out the goods as waste. Repeat.
The U.K. currency, already buffeted by an energy price shock, traded at a record low against the dollar after the government unveiled a spending plan that some fear could spark higher inflation.
Investors and policy makers have long worried that ultra-low interest rates would give rise to a legion of zombie companies — firms that survive mainly because borrowing is cheap and plentiful. But there are reasons to think the number of zombies is smaller than some feared, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
The U.S. dollar is on a roll. Even as the American economy shows signs of cooling, the greenback has soared against major currencies from Europe’s 19-member euro to the Chinese renminbi. An index of the dollar versus other major currencies is trading around a two-decade high.
We polled the companies and investors at Goldman Sachs’ Communacopia + Technology Conference 2022 to understand everything from their recession expectations to where they see innovation across their industries. Here’s what they had to say.
Russia’s shutdown of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline threatens to further squeeze the disposable income of Europeans. A typical family in the EU could face energy bills of €500 per month by early next year without the introduction of price caps, according to Goldman Sachs Research – up 200% from 2021.
As property developers run out of funding to finish properties, a growing number of buyers in China have stopped making mortgage payments on incomplete homes. The boycotts are a sign of the distress in China’s property market as the government seeks to rebalance the sector.
The 60/40 portfolio — split between the S&P 500 Index of stocks (60%) and 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds (40%) — fell about 20% in the first half of 2022, the biggest decline on record for the start of a year, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
Investors are increasingly asking if companies are tapping into growth areas such as the energy transition and the waste-reducing circular economy, says Bertie Whitehead, managing director and EMEA head of ESG in Investment Banking at Goldman Sachs. “We used to call these megatrends, but it’s simply growth investing. This is where capital is going.
The tensions between Russia and the rest of Europe over natural gas flows have underscored the unsustainability of the continent’s energy system. But with the right mix of infrastructure investment, Europe can emerge from the upheaval with a system that is cheaper, achieves the continent’s net-zero carbon emissions goals and is more secure.
Small businesses are the first to be buffeted by new economic conditions, but even for the most agile and experienced operators, the current operating environment is a particularly rough sea. Many small businesses were slammed when the COVID-19 pandemic tore through the global economy, and from surging gas prices to staff retention, the waves just keep coming.
As stock markets stumble, will the trillions of dollars that have flowed into private markets be a haven from the turmoil?
The pandemic-induced housing boom appears to be cooling off. From Toronto to Auckland, a slowdown in the housing market (the most interest-rate sensitive segment of the economy) is underway as interest rates in developed economies are set to climb rapidly, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
Jaws dropped when the latest report on consumer price inflation arrived, clocking its biggest year-over-year jump in the U.S. since 1981. That and other economic data points contributed to the Federal Reserve’s decision on June 15 to make its biggest rate hike since 1994. But there are signs that labor shortages — a key driver of overall inflation, may have peaked months ago, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
The euro area economy is starting to look more like the picture in the U.S. and the U.K. – wage growth is accelerating and inflation seems to be getting stickier. Those concerns are pushing the European Central Bank to act faster to tighten monetary policy.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has heightened the uncertainty over food supply, a global market that was already feeling the effects of COVID-19 and the ongoing impact of climate change. With the help of Goldman Sachs Research, we took a closer look at the regions most affected by surging food prices and the increasing cost of agricultural commodities and products.
The biggest gap between job openings and available workers in postwar history is one of the key reasons that inflation is soaring in the U.S. A drop in immigration has helped push the gap wider, suggesting an increase in foreign-born workers could help contain the rise in wages and prices, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
The economy based on physical stuff is getting its revenge. Not so long ago, investors were enamored with fast-growing companies that used software to send a ride or groceries to your door at the push of button, even if the firm’s profits were far off in the horizon. But these days, healthy margins and companies that make real, physical stuff are back in focus, according to Peter Oppenheimer, chief global equity strategist at Goldman Sachs.
The S&P 500 Index this year has fallen by the most in decades, as investors reckon with everything from lockdowns in China to a Federal Reserve that aims to cool the most overheated job market in postwar U.S. history. But retail investors, who have become a key force in U.S. equities, have for the most part kept their cool.
The Federal Reserve is tapping the brakes on U.S. economic growth, which could help bring down inflation and temper the most overheated job market in postwar American history, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
Like many countries, Brazil faces a challenging mix of slowing economic growth and soaring inflation. But what makes Latin America’s largest economy different from other nations is that its central bank has lifted its benchmark rate 10-straight times to one of the highest policy rates in the world.
Recent instances of threatened energy supply have the potential to a galvanize investors, corporates and policymakers to prioritize green energy sources that are also secure, reliable and accessible. In order to achieve this, swift and significant capital investment will need to be deployed globally – to the tune of $6 trillion annually. We talked with Brian Singer, global head of GS SUSTAIN, to understand more about Green Capex, which industries will feel the effects, which technologies hold the most potential and where policy can help to drive investment.
China’s digital champions have been buffeted by uncertainty on three fronts: COVID-19 measures, regulatory tightening and the risk of delisting from US stock markets. We sat down with Ronald Keung, the head of Goldman Sachs Research’s Asia internet team to discuss the recovery of China’s internet sector following a period of weaker earnings. Looking beyond the near-term COVID impact, Keung says that the outlook remains promising for investors.
Asian Americans are a tremendous contributor to the U.S. economy, with an outsized presence in everything from sophisticated patents to Nobel Prizes. But as the U.S. marks Asian Heritage Month, Goldman Sachs Research finds that this group still faces barriers in rising to the highest echelons of corporate America.
Against the backdrop of war in Ukraine, 2022 is seeing renewed focus on energy security as Europe grapples with how to restructure its supply to reduce its reliance on Russia. The crisis has revealed the challenge ahead for the world as it faces geopolitical conflict, efforts to decarbonize and high global inflation. Today, the energy industry is at turning point, with an expected increase in investment across commodities, including oil and gas, according to Top Projects, Goldman Sachs Research’s annual analysis of the energy sector. We spoke with Michele Della Vigna, head of Goldman Sachs’ natural resources research in EMEA, to learn more.
Environmental, social and governance (ESG) considerations are increasingly driving corporate strategy in asset classes around the world. But when it comes to building real estate, is environmental impact – particularly carbon emissions – a critical concern for developers and investors? We sat down with Nora Creedon, an investor in private real estate within Goldman Sachs Asset Management, to discuss if buildings truly are going “green.”
Compared with other countries, the most disadvantaged in the U.K. are less likely to climb the income ladder and the economically advantaged tend to stay at the top. Covid-19 has increased inequality further, and recent rises in inflation, especially energy costs, are intensifying the problem. In a recent report, Goldman Sachs Research has taken a closer look at the issue, investigating what needs to be done to improve mobility and opportunity for people in the U.K.
Europe’s tech entrepreneurs have arrived. The ecosystem of digital companies has grown twice as fast as in the U.S. during the past seven years, and funding in Europe’s private companies eclipsed $100 billion for the first time in 2021.
As the war between Russia and Ukraine escalates, global commodities markets are going through the most upheaval since the 1973 oil embargo on the U.S. But this time the energy crisis is most acute in Europe, which relies more heavily on Russian exports. And the shock isn’t confined to one commodity. Russia is the second largest commodity producer in the world (behind the U.S.), and the repercussions of its invasion seem to have changed global supply chains overnight. We sat down with Goldman Sachs’ Global Head of Commodity Research Jeff Currie for his view on global commodities and the impact on markets.
The shortage of semiconductor chips is straining global supply chains, causing a drag on the production of an array of products from smartphones to new cars. We spoke to Alexander Duval, a technology analyst in Global Investment Research at Goldman Sachs, after our virtual European Digital Economy Conference to discuss chip production and the impact of the Ukraine-Russia crisis on the sector. He highlighted how a number of European companies at the conference expect tightness in the supply and demand of semis to potentially persist in their particular product areas into early 2023, albeit with some gradual easing in certain types of chips in the second half of this year.
At the start of the year, Goldman Sachs Asset Management released Investment Ideas 2022, taking a deep dive into the key themes likely to influence investor behavior. But disruptive forces — such as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine — are constantly evolving, presenting new challenges to the global economy. We sat down with Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s Candice Tse, global head of strategic advisory solutions, and Maria Vassalou, deputy chief investment officer of multi-asset solutions, to look at the impact disruption is having and how investors can navigate it.
Are there signs of healing in China’s property sector? When the indebted property giant China Evergrande Group started defaulting on its payments last fall, fear spread that a potential bankruptcy would trigger a broader crisis in China’s debt markets — and global markets more broadly. Several months later, defaults on Chinese property bonds continue to remain elevated. We spoke with Kenneth Ho from Goldman Sachs Research and Salman Niaz of Goldman Sachs Asset Management for their views on Chinese property credit and the Asia high-yield sector more broadly to understand what has changed.
In our recent Black Womenomics: Equalizing Entrepreneurship report, new research from Goldman Sachs delves into the entrepreneurial and economic inequalities facing Black women in the U.S. From access to capital and financial education, to the effects of discrimination and bias, the research paints a daunting picture of the challenges facing Black entrepreneurs. We sat down with Gizelle George-Joseph, global chief operating officer for Goldman Sachs Research and author of this research, to take a closer look.
Clean hydrogen has emerged as a critical technology to reach net-zero carbon emissions. This is why more than 30 countries have released official hydrogen strategies and roadmaps to ramp up their hydrogen consumption and develop the required infrastructure. The targets in these strategies show they are poised to increase capacity over 400-fold in this decade as compared with 2020. We spoke with analyst Zoe Clarke in Global Investment Research at Goldman Sachs about green hydrogen, which is produced using renewable energy, and her estimate that $5 trillion of investment is needed in the clean hydrogen supply chain to achieve net zero, as policy, scalability and affordability come together.
'The Biggest Hurdle is Being Let in the Room:' How This Entrepreneur Defied the Odds to Become a Private Equity Success Story
What does it take to be an entrepreneurial success story? In the case of Tracy Graham, founding partner and managing principal of private equity firm Graham Allen Partners, quite a lot. Graham’s life story involved an upward struggle out of poverty in Chicago; being recruited by famed coach Lou Holtz to play football at the University of Notre Dame; and launching a successful career in the private equity industry.
The European Union is aiming to slash greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by the end of this decade compared to 1990 levels, a goal that GS Research says requires a major – and urgent – push to electrify industries from transport to manufacturing. We sat down with Alberto Gandolfi, head of European Utilities Research, to discuss the steps European economies need to take now on their path to net zero.
How are small businesses faring in the U.K.’s post-pandemic recovery? We spoke with Charlotte Keenan, head of Goldman Sachs’ Office of Corporate Engagement International, about the team’s latest research, Engines of Growth, which looks at how small businesses in the U.K. are adapting and thriving during a period of extreme uncertainty.
Even as oil prices climb higher, the flow of money into new oil and gas projects has stalled as investors increasingly avoid industries that produce fossil fuels and heavy carbon emissions. That breakdown between energy prices and capital expenditures is likely to prop up the cost of a barrel of oil, but it could also help support the transition to low-carbon energy. We spoke with Michele Della Vigna, head of natural resources research in EMEA at Goldman Sachs, to discuss the firm’s outlook for commodity prices as investors increase their focus on climate change.
What's causing workers to drop out of the labor force continues to be a topic of debate among investors and policy makers. In the U.S., the labor force participation rate stood at 61.8% in November, compared with 63.3% in February 2020. We spoke with Daan Struyven, senior global economist at Goldman Sachs, to discuss the firm’s outlook on U.S. and worldwide labor participation.
Affluent women are poised to fuel the next wave of growth in the U.S. wealth management industry. We sat down with Goldman Sachs’ Meena Flynn, co-head of Global Private Wealth Management in the Consumer and Wealth Management Division, to discuss the recent launch of In the Lead, a platform for ultra-high-net-worth women with curated advice, insights and networking opportunities.
At a recent Goldman Sachs Asset Management Forum, Katie Koch, co-head of Goldman Sachs' Fundamental Equity business, spoke with Robin Diamonte, chief investment officer of Raytheon Technologies, about her career, changes in the retirement landscape and what it’s like to manage one of the largest corporate pension plans in the U.S. with more than $100 billion in assets.
Is there a case for dropping China from emerging market (EM) indices? We sat down with Goldman Sachs Research’s Timothy Moe and Sunil Koul to discuss the drivers behind the growing debate to invest in EMs, without China.
At the Goldman Sachs Asset Management Forum, Steve Rattner, chairman and CEO of Willett Advisors, spoke with Goldman Sachs’ Katie Koch, co-head of the Fundamental Equity business, and Goldman Sachs' Nora Creedon, an investor in private real estate, about China, U.S. deficits and wage inflation. Rattner manages the personal and philanthropic investments of Michael Bloomberg and Bloomberg Philanthropies, and previously served as counselor to the secretary of the treasury in former President Barack Obama's administration and as lead auto adviser, where he led the successful restructuring of the auto industry during the 2008 financial crisis. Ahead, a few excerpts from their conversation.
Rising price pressures are raising doubts about whether the surge in prices is temporary or something more permanent. We sat down with Goldman Sachs Research’s chief U.S. economist David Mericle for his latest views on the inflation outlook.
After most of the large banks reported their quarterly earnings last week, we sat down with Goldman Sachs Research’s Richard Ramsden, Business Unit Leader of the Financials Group, to discuss the implications for markets.
Amid rising worries over inflation and rates, investors are anxiously assessing the impact for stocks. We sat down with Goldman Sachs Research’s Ben Snider who shared his thoughts on what he sees as the biggest concerns for equity investors, the interplay between rates and equities, and what to expect for the upcoming earnings season.
Telecom, cable, media and mobility companies saw a surge of growth when the pandemic began, but how are they faring now that people aren’t quarantined at home? We sat down with with Goldman Sachs Research’s Brett Feldman, Stephen Laszczyk and Eric Sheridan following the firm’s 30th Annual Communacopia Conference to discuss what industry leaders are saying.
Bundle up this winter. Rising power and natural gas prices are pushing up bills for households across Europe and the U.S. At the Goldman Sachs Asset Management Forum, Kaelyn Lucas and Joanna Saw from the corporate credit team explain the drivers that are moving prices up and the outlook for corporates and consumers.
How are healthcare systems coping with the delta variant? Goldman Sachs Research’s Veronika Dubajova shares key takeaways from her conversations with 30 global healthcare and medical technology CEOs and CFOs who virtually attended the firm’s 18th Annual Medtech Conference last week.
As dealmaking surges across the globe, mergers and acquisitions activity in Australia is hitting new highs. We spoke with Goldman Sachs’ Marissa Freund, head of the mergers and acquisitions business in Australia and New Zealand (A/NZ), about what's fueling the M&A boom and her outlook going forward.
The pandemic is accelerating the pace of innovation and investments across the global healthcare landscape, explain Goldman Sachs’ Jenny Chang, a portfolio manager in Asset Management’s Fundamental Equity business, and Jim Sinclair of the Investment Banking Division. Both shared their views at a recent Healthcare Investor Forum event.
The private equity industry is turning to continuation funds as a way to hold on to high-performing assets for longer. We sat down with Alexander Mejia, who leads the private equity sponsor secondary market advisory within the Investment Banking Division to discuss the growing popularity of these vehicles.
Attempts to move the global economy toward net zero carbon emissions over the next decade will continue to raise the prices of commodities—particularly those needed to develop low-carbon technologies. Aluminium is no exception, yet it poses a unique paradox: It is a necessary element of technologies like electric vehicles and solar panels, but its production generates a lot of carbon—2% of all global emissions. We sat down with Goldman Sachs Research’s Nick Snowdon to hear his view of why aluminium prices are going to keep rising over the next five years.
In June, the Tokyo Metropolitan Government made history when it sold the first municipal social bond ever issued in Japan—and saw a record-high participation rate from international investors. We spoke with Satoru Kawahito and Hiroaki Kasai from Goldman Sachs’ public sector and infrastructure team in the Investment Banking Division to discuss the transaction and what it means for the future of public sector funding space in Japan.
As one of the longest-tenured CEOs on Wall Street, Jefferies Financial Group CEO Rich Handler has seen his share of market cycles, crises and technological changes. In a recent conversation with Katie Koch, co-head of Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s Fundamental Equity business, Handler shared his thoughts on the economy, capital markets activity and innovation across sectors.
Management teams from more than 220 healthcare companies participated in Goldman Sachs’ 42nd annual Global Healthcare conference in June to share their thoughts on the recovery, vaccine rollouts and the evolution in the delivery of healthcare services. We sat down with Goldman Sachs Research’s Asad Haider, a business unit leader in healthcare, and Veronika Dubajova, head of Medical Technology Research in Europe, who shared key takeaways from the event.
At Goldman Sachs’ annual TechNet Conference, senior leaders from the firm’s Investment Banking and Financing business in the Asia-Pacific region discussed what's driving the recent surge in capital markets activity. Philippa Vizzone moderated a conversation with Aaron Arth, Raghav Maliah and Jung Min on the outlook for corporate activity in the region. Below are excerpts from their conversation.
Earlier this year, the European Investment Bank (EIB) issued and settled its first-ever digital bond using Ethereum blockchain technology. We sat down with Mathew McDermott, global head of digital assets, and Maud Le Moine, head of sovereign, supranational and agency origination in the Investment Banking Division, to discuss the transaction and its implications for capital markets and digital finance.
A Conversation with Elizabeth Burton, CIO of the Employees’ Retirement System of the State of Hawaii
Elizabeth Burton is the chief investment officer of the Employees’ Retirement System of the State of Hawaii, a $20 billion plan that serves about 135,000 people—or roughly one out of every 10 people in the state. At a recent Goldman Sachs Asset Management Forum, she spoke with Katie Koch, co-head of the Fundamental Equity business, and Mike Swell, head of Global Portfolio Management within the Global Fixed Income team, about her views on inflation, asset allocation and the role of private assets.
How has the healthcare sector fared during the pandemic? We spoke with Jenny Chang, a portfolio manager who covers healthcare for Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s Fundamental Equity team, on the sectors she and her team are focused on this year.
At a recent meeting of the Goldman Sachs Asset Management Forum, Mike Brandmeyer, global co-head and co-CIO of the Alternative Investments & Manager Selection Group, and Mike Koester, global co-head of the firmwide Alternatives Capital Markets & Strategy Group, discussed the state of private markets more than one year into the pandemic and how portfolio companies have fared during the crisis.
The simultaneous pickup in economic growth and inflation—or reflation—following the hit to both during the COVID-19 pandemic has revived investors’ appetite for riskier assets. Unprecedented levels of fiscal stimulus have helped boost momentum. While stronger growth should sustain that trend into the second quarter, returns on risky assets like equities will likely slow from here, says Goldman Sachs Research’s Christian Mueller-Glissmann. We sat down with Christian to dig into his outlook across asset classes for the year to come.
Amid concerns that Europe and China are facing economic and demographic headwinds similar to those responsible for Japan’s decades-long period of anemic growth, we sat down with Naohiko Baba, Goldman Sachs Research’s chief economist for Japan, to discuss how Japan is coping with its challenges and takeaways for other countries that are at risk of ‘Japanification.’
More than one year into the pandemic and in the wake of the conclusion of China’s 14th National People’s Congress, investors are focusing on how the country will achieve its announced growth target of 6%. At a recent Goldman Sachs Asset Management Forum session, Prakriti Sofat, a portfolio manager who invests in emerging markets, explained the key economic drivers for China this year.
With markets hitting new highs, are equity valuations at a peak? We sat down with Candice Tse, U.S. head of Market Strategy within the Strategic Advisory Solutions team in Goldman Sachs' Asset Management Division, who shared her view on the current valuations.
Just over a year into Goldman Sachs' 10-year plan to deploy $750 billion toward accelerating the climate transition and advancing inclusive growth, the firm has reached a fifth of its target. We sat down with John Goldstein, head of the firm’s Sustainable Finance Group, to discuss progress, client concerns and the impact of the pandemic on companies’ sustainability goals.
In recent weeks, a sharp move higher in Treasury yields has triggered a sell-off in the rates market, which is starting to spill over into other assets. We sat down with Goldman Markets Division’s Josh Schiffrin, global co-head of U.S. and global interest rate products, and Brian Friedman, global head of market strats, who explain the market implications.
In times of uncertainty, Switzerland, long known as a safe haven for financial assets, has benefited from strong investor inflows. We sat down with Dominique Wohnlich, head of Goldman Sachs’ Private Wealth Management business in Switzerland, to discuss the impact of the pandemic on the business and what clients there are focused on.
Could bitcoin replace gold as a store of value? According to long-time cryptocurrency enthusiast Mike Novogratz, founder of Galaxy Investment Partners, bitcoin, blockchain and decentralized finance are poised to disrupt the payment and financial services ecosystem. Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s Katie Koch, co-head of the Fundamental Equity business, and Nora Creedon, global head of REIT and infrastructure strategies, spoke with Novogratz, a former Goldman Sachs partner, at a recent GSAM Forum event.
The hospitals and healthcare systems that are critical to managing our health are also a significant part of the institutional investor landscape. We sat down with Paget MacColl, co-head of the Americas Institutional Client Business within Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM), to discuss the results of GSAM’s 2020 Healthcare Diagnostic, an annual survey assessing the investment approaches and practices of 42 leading healthcare systems and hospitals across the U.S. representing more than $350 billion in investments.
Companies evaluating mergers and acquisitions are increasingly looking at how the transaction may impact their environmental, social, and governance (ESG) strategy, according to Goldman Sachs’ Avinash Mehrotra, global head of the Activism and Shareholder Advisory and Takeover Defense practices. We sat down with Avi to discuss how ESG considerations are starting to influence deal-making.
Goldman Sachs recently hosted the first day of its three-day virtual Technology and Internet Conference, which convened leaders from 75 of the most influential companies in the space. We sat down with Goldman Sachs Research’s Heath Terry, business unit leader for the Technology, Media and Telecom Group, who shared highlights from the event. The second part of the conference will be held virtually on February 10-11.
On the heels of the firm’s annual conference, we caught up with Richard Ramsden, who leads the Financials Group within Goldman Sachs Research. Below, he discusses takeaways from his conversations with company management teams, including the outlook for capital returns and strategic investment.
The hedge fund industry is poised to post one of its strongest years since the global financial crisis, according to Goldman Sachs’ Tony Pasquariello, global head of hedge fund coverage for the Global Markets Division, who explained the drivers behind the performance and the outlook for 2021.
With one or more COVID-19 vaccines on the horizon, investors are looking ahead to the manufacturing and distribution of the vaccine. During a recent daily Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM) Forum event, Dr. John Grabenstein, president of consulting service Vaccine Dynamics SP and former Global Executive Director of Medical Affairs for Merck Vaccines, discussed the logistics of a vaccine rollout with Gurpreet Gill, a macro strategist within GSAM’s Fixed Income team.
As the chief investment officer for the San Francisco Employees’ Retirement System (SFERS), Bill Coaker Jr. has achieved risk-adjusted returns in the top one percent of SFERS’ peer group. At a recent Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM) Forum discussion, Coaker, who has more than 25 years of investment experience, spoke with portfolio managers on GSAM’s Fundamental Equity business, including Katie Koch, Brook Dane, Jenny Chang, Alexis Deladerrière and Laura Destribats.
A low-for-longer interest rate environment can be particularly difficult for insurance companies, which need higher-yielding investments to match their underwritten liabilities. So how are Japanese insurers adjusting to a prolonged period of negative interest rates? We sat down with Yusuke Ochi, who works with insurers and other institutional clients in Goldman Sachs’ Global Markets Division in Japan, to discuss.
After a challenging second quarter, M&A volumes have picked up in the second half of the year, marking a near return to pre-COVID activity levels. We sat down with Investment Banking Division’s Colin Ryan, co-head of M&A for the Americas and global co-head of Technology M&A, and David Dubner, global head of M&A structuring, about the factors driving activity.
As the CIO and Executive Director for the Minnesota State Board of Investment (MSBI), Mansco Perry oversees approximately $100 billion in assets. At a recent Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM) Forum discussion, Perry spoke with GSAM’s Katie Koch, co-head of GSAM’s Fundamental Equity business, and Mike Swell, head of Global Portfolio Management within the Global Fixed Income team, on his core investment philosophies and processes, asset class preferences, and the role of diversity.
In recent years, investors have broadened their search for potential returns by taking on non-traditional or “alternative” risks. Many of these alternative risk premia (ARP) have historically been implemented by hedge funds and other institutional investors that develop long-short strategies aimed at mitigating market volatility. We sat down with Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s Federico Gilly and Matthew Schwab to discuss the latest developments in this space.
The pandemic is accelerating underlying trends in the real estate market, such as a decline in office space in major cities like New York and a move to the suburbs, according to Jamie LeFrak, Vice Chairman of LeFrak, a multi-generational real estate investment firm with one of the largest privately held portfolios in the US. Speaking at a recent Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM) Forum event, LeFrak shared his thoughts on real estate in a post-COVID landscape with GSAM portfolio manager Nora Creedon.
Can technology be used to improve human performance? At the recent Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM) Healthcare Investor Forum, Andrew Firlik, managing partner of JAZZ Venture Partners, spoke with GSAM’s Hugh Lawson about emerging technologies that are helping to improve health and wellness outcomes.
Insurance is typically considered to be one of the most traditional industries in financial services and, until recently, has proved to be fairly resistant to change. But changes in consumer behaviors, new technologies and emerging business models are disrupting the industry. We sat down with Goldman Sachs’ Kelly Galanis, head of the Americas Financial Technology sector in the Investment Banking Division, about the emergence of insurance technology startups, known as insurtech, and its impact on the insurance industry.
Last year saw a new trend in M&A involving Japanese companies—a sharp increase in large tender offers, including rarely seen hostile bids. The trend has continued in 2020, and may accelerate as a result of the pandemic. Goldman Sachs Research’s Hiromi Suzuki explains the changing times.
Consumer packaged food companies are changing the way they source raw ingredients to help reduce their environmental and social impact. Goldman Sachs Research’s Jason English spoke with Mary Jane Melendez, General Mills’ Chief Sustainability and Social Impact Officer, Christine Montenegro McGrath, Mondelez’s Chief of Global Impact, and Kate Rebernak, Founder and CEO of FrameworkESG, to discuss how consumer food companies are shaking up their supply chains. What follows is an edited excerpt of their conversation from Goldman Sachs’ inaugural Global Consumer ESG Conference, held virtually last month.
Just as the pandemic has accelerated a shift to online learning, it is also reshaping the college application process. On a recent client webcast, Goldman Sachs’ John Mallory, who leads the firm’s Americas Private Wealth Management business, spoke with Amy Alexander and Sai Samboon of Bright Horizons College Coach about the trends shaping the college admissions process.
The airline industry has faced its fair share of crises, but the coronavirus has pushed it into new territory. Greg Lee of Goldman Sachs’ Investment Banking Division looks at how some airlines are weathering the pandemic.
After a decade-long bull run, mergers and acquisition activity slowed sharply earlier this year as global economies came to a halt. But there are signs of life in the M&A market as countries start to reopen, according to the global co-heads of Goldman Sachs’ Mergers & Acquisitions business in the Investment Banking Division—Michael Carr, Dusty Philip and Gilberto Pozzi—who shared their outlooks on the year ahead.
Goldman Sachs’ Firmwide Black Network recently hosted a virtual townhall to share experiences with racial discrimination in the US and around the world. Lisa Opoku, global chief operating officer for the firm’s Engineering Division, moderated a discussion with Margaret Anadu, head of Goldman Sachs’ Urban Investment Group, Leke Osinubi, chief risk officer for the Core Engineering business unit, Kene Ejikeme, head of Multi Asset Platform Sales in EMEA, and Sean Legister, a vice president in Multi Asset Sales in New York, on how to bring the Black community—and its allies—together.
As one of the longest-tenured CEOs on Wall Street, Jefferies Financial Group CEO Rich Handler says the current crisis is unlike any he’s ever seen and will have profound effects on the economy, consumer behavior and the future of work. Speaking at a virtual Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM) Forum event, Handler shared his thoughts with Katie Koch, co-head of GSAM’s Fundamental Equity business.
Bill Bynum, is the CEO of HOPE, a Community Development Financial Institution in Jackson, Mississippi, with whom Goldman Sachs is partnering to get capital in the hands of small businesses. Margaret Anadu, head of the Merchant Banking Division’s Urban Investment Group (UIG) at Goldman Sachs, spoke recently with Bynum about the status of those efforts.
Public companies and investors have turned to private investments in public equity, or PIPEs, to raise capital at historically high levels given the uncertainty around the COVID-19 pandemic. Goldman Sachs Investment Banking Division’s Mike Voris and Evan Green discussed the appeal of the approach and why the trend has continued even as liquidity has returned to fixed income markets.
Goldman Sachs’ Bentley de Beyer had just started in his position as the firm’s Global Head of Human Capital Management when the coronavirus hit. In a recent conversation with Greg Wilson, Head of Institutional Client Businesses at the firm’s Ayco financial counseling business, de Beyer spoke about his transition to the firm, the future of work and how he communicates with a global workforce during the crisis. What follows is an edited excerpt from their conversation.
The path to full economic recovery is likely to be complicated and gradual, as wide swaths of the economy are forced to rebuild and adapt. At a recent Forum discussion, Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s (GSAM) Katie Koch, co-head of the Fundamental Equity business, spoke with Steve Strongin, senior advisor at the firm and former head of Goldman Sachs Research, about the forward path.
The face to-face meetings between investors and executives, often requiring week-long tours of major cities across the globe, are emblematic of the IPO process. But such in-person presentations may soon be giving way to virtual IPO roadshows in a travel-restricted landscape. We spoke with Goldman Sachs’ Bill Chu, Sam Thong, James Wang and Darius Naraghi of the Investment Banking team in Hong Kong about the trends that are reshaping the IPO process in Asia.
The technology sector was a strong outperformer during the bull market and, so far, is outperforming other sectors during the current downturn. At a recent Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM) Forum event, Sung Cho and Greg Tuorto, portfolio managers on GSAM’s Fundamental Equity team specializing in technology, and David Fischkoff on GSAM Fixed Income’s credit team, shared their perspectives on why the sector is poised to weather the current crises.
More than two months after imposing quarantines to battle the COVID-19 epidemic, China is on the economic road to recovery. Shao Ping Guan, head of the China Equity team and lead portfolio manager of Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s China Equity strategies, shared his thoughts on the country’s recovery and the resilience of its equity markets.
Even as the Federal Reserve announced plans to expand its bond-buying program, liquidity challenges in the fixed income markets have become another feature of the current crisis. Last week, Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s (GSAM) Mike Swell, co-head, Global Portfolio Management of Global Fixed Income, hosted a client call with members GSAM’s Global Fixed Income team to discuss recent developments and the policy response.
As universities across the US, Europe and Asia cancel in-person classes in an effort to contain the spread of coronavirus, traditional classrooms are adopting virtual classrooms—which could jumpstart the long-term adoption of remote learning. We sat down with Goldman Sachs’ Adam Nordin, who covers the educational technology sector for the Investment Banking Division, who shared his thoughts on one of the fastest-growing segments in higher education.
As universities across the US, Europe and Asia cancel in-person classes in an effort to contain the spread of coronavirus, traditional classrooms are adopting virtual classrooms—which could jumpstart the long-term adoption of remote learning. We sat down with Goldman Sachs’ Adam Nordin, who covers the educational technology sector for the Investment Banking Division, and shared his thoughts on one of the fastest-growing segments in higher education.
When news of coronavirus first broke earlier in the year, Goldman Sachs Research’s Peter Oppenheimer warned that the markets were being too complacent. With the stock market’s latest plunge, we sat down with Peter to get his views on how severe the selloff could be and the key metrics and risks investors should watch.
Raghuram Rajan, former chief economist for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and India’s former central banker, shared his views on monetary policies, the risk of global supply chains and the importance of communities in a wide-ranging conversation with Goldman Sachs’ Katie Koch, co-head of Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s (GSAM) Fundamental Equity business, at a GSAM Forum event in New York. What follows are excerpts from their conversation.
The hospitals and healthcare systems that are critical to managing our health are also, with more than $1 trillion in investments, a significant part of the institutional investor landscape. We sat down with Paget MacColl of Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM), which recently released the results of its Healthcare Diagnostic, an annual survey assessing the investment approaches and practices of the nation’s largest nonprofit healthcare systems and hospitals. In our interview, Paget discussed the role of investments amid an increasingly challenging operating environment.
With record levels of cash, private equity firms appear poised for another solid year. We recently sat down with Goldman Sachs’ Pete Lyon, who runs the firm’s global sponsors franchise, to discuss his outlook for the private equity industry this year.
Asia’s third-largest economy released its national budget on February 1, outlining its roadmap for boosting economic performance after several years of slowing growth. We sat down with Goldman Sachs Research’s India Chief Economist Prachi Mishra who shared her views on the budget announcement.
As investor focus on infrastructure continues to expand, so too has its scope, according to Goldman Sachs’ Brian Bolster and Michael Sachs, who lead the firm’s investment banking coverage effort for the sector. We sat down with Brian and Michael who shared their views on infrastructure’s evolution.
Last week, leaders from the public and private sectors convened in Davos, Switzerland for the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum. Three members of the firm’s delegation – Gregg Lemkau and Dina Powell of the Investment Banking Division, and Sheila Patel of the Consumer and Investment Management Division – share their takeaways from the week’s events.
European regulators are exploring a new, more rigorous method of evaluating a vehicle’s environmental impact. The so-called Life Cycle Assessment approach would broaden the scope of evaluation to include the entire life cycle of a car – not just its on-road emissions. We sit down with Kota Yuzawa of Goldman Sachs Research to discuss the shift’s implications for the future of electric vehicles and as well as investors who have a stake in the space.
At Goldman Sachs’ inaugural Philanthropy Forum, recently hosted by the firm’s Private Wealth Management business, more than 350 clients convened in New York to hear perspectives from notable philanthropists and learn strategies for maximizing giving and measuring impact. Dr. Deepak Chopra, a pioneer in integrative medicine and personal transformation, spoke about the power of philanthropy with Goldman Sachs’ Meena Flynn. Edited highlights from their conversation are featured below.
A modest pickup in global growth is expected to greet investors in 2020. While this optimism has seen investors shift to riskier assets, Goldman Sachs Research’s Christian Mueller-Glissmann says there’s a risk that they could be disappointed…eventually. We sat down with Christian to discuss multi-asset themes and risks for 2020.
As tech firms from Greater China seek protection from trade tensions, many are adding manufacturing capacity in Vietnam to build everything from AirPods to TVs. To find out more, we spoke to Goldman Sachs Research’s Allen Chang, who recently visited industrial parks across Vietnam to interview the tech companies expanding there. Learn More
After a string of recent mega mergers, food companies are hunkering down to digest their acquisitions—resulting in a slew of spinoffs and divestitures as they look to streamline their operations. We sat down with Goldman Sachs’ Ben Frost, head of Mergers & Acquisitions for the Consumer Retail Group in the Investment Banking Division, to discuss the drivers behind recent banking transactions. Learn More
The sharp fall in the cost of installing and generating renewable power is driving the shift to low-carbon technologies. We sat down with Taylor Jordan – who co-founded impact investment advisory firm Imprint Capital (which Goldman Sachs bought in 2015)– to discuss clean energy investment opportunities. Learn More
Family offices have become one of the fastest-growing investors within the asset management industry. We sat down with Goldman Sachs’ Sara Naison-Tarajano, head of Apex, the firm’s dedicated family-office coverage team in the Consumer and Investment Management Division (CIMD), and Meena Flynn, CIMD’s global head of the Markets Solution Group and one of the partners leading the cross-divisional family-office initiative, who shared their perspectives on the industry. Learn More
Dutch company DSM was once one of the world’s largest bulk chemical companies. But over the last three decades, it has transformed itself into a cutting-edge, purpose and performance-led science company whose strategy is aligned with the United Nations SDGs. At a recent Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM) Forum event, Katie Koch, co-head of GSAM’s Fundamental Equity business, spoke with Feike Sijbesma, DSM’s CEO of 13 years, about the company’s journey and the impact that corporations can have on climate change and malnutrition, among other global issues. Learn More
Asian hedge funds are one of the bright spots in the hedge fund industry, fueled by strong inflows, robust performance and China’s moves to open up its financial markets. We caught up with Goldman Sachs’ Padideh Raphael, whose team recently hosted almost 500 investors, managers and other market practitioners at the firm’s 20th annual Asia Hedge Fund Symposium in Tokyo. Learn More
Despite Japan’s aging population and mounting public debt, the country offers a host of investment opportunities, according to Katie Koch, co-head of Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s (GSAM) Fundamental Equity business. Koch recently returned from GSAM’s annual Investor Tour, held this year in Tokyo and Kyoto, where the team hosted 20 CEOs, CIOs and heads of equity from large global institutions along with Japanese policy makers, government officials and C-suite executives. Learn More
Climate change, advancing technologies and shifting workforce dynamics are among the top priorities for small businesses in the UK, according to survey results released by Goldman Sachs’ 10,000 Small Businesses UK at the firm’s Business 2030 conference held in London earlier this month. We spoke with Goldman Sachs’ Charlotte Keenan, who leads the firm’s Office of Corporate Engagement for the EMEA and APAC regions, to share how entrepreneurs are running their businesses in the face of global uncertainty. Learn More
Faced with geopolitical uncertainty, a slowing economy and negative yields, more than 180 German companies shared their strategies and challenges with investors at Goldman Sachs’ eighth annual German Corporate Conference, held in Munich last month. We sat down with Goldman Sachs’ Michael Schmitz, co-head of the Securities Division in Germany and Austria, to discuss key takeaways from the event. Learn More
China’s food habits are changing in ways that will have long-term repercussions for the world, says Goldman Sachs Research’s Trina Chen. We sat down with her to learn more about what’s driving the shift in consumption and how China can meet these new demands. Learn More
At a time of rising climate activism, The Conservation Fund (TCF) – partnering with Goldman Sachs – tapped the capital markets with an inaugural debt issuance to scale its mission: to protect 1 million acres of America’s privately held working forests. We sat down with TCF’s CEO and CFO Larry Selzer and John Gilbert, respectively, and Goldman Sachs’ Kyung-Ah Park and Ritu Kalra to talk about the conservation sector’s evolving approach to sustainable growth and the role of capital markets. Learn More
Online payments are quickly dethroning cash as king across Asia. We sat down with Goldman Sachs’ Geddes Johnson to discuss the untapped opportunities – and latest misconceptions – within Asia’s payments landscape. Learn More
China’s capital markets reform spread to new fronts this summer with the launch of the Science Technology Innovation Board. The Nasdaq-like stock exchange for emerging companies—dubbed the “STAR” market—has seen its shares rise over 140% since the first IPOs in July. Below, Goldman Sachs Research’s Kinger Lau discusses what distinguishes this market and its applicants, as well as what to expect in the way of foreign access. Learn More
Key to any sustainable economic expansion is the growth of an appropriately skilled labor force – something the US has experienced uninterrupted since the global financial crisis. We caught up with Goldman Sachs Research's Abby Joseph Cohen to discuss immigration's contribution to this growth, the subject of her latest report "Immigration and the US Workforce." Learn More
Eight years after the Fukushima nuclear disaster, Japan has diversified its energy supply through its investment in renewables. We sat down with Toru Inoue in Goldman Sachs’ Investment Banking Division to discuss the implications for investors and the energy landscape. Learn More
How can artificial intelligence impact the workplace of the future? At the Ayco InnerCircle conference, which brings together practitioners and thought leaders in the human resources industry, Goldman Sachs’ Joe LeRoy of Ayco’s Institutional Business Solutions, spoke with Richard Hughes of UnitedHealth Group, Jeffrey Howell of Panasonic Industrial Devices Sales Company of America and Brian Marcotte of the National Business Group on Health, about the role of AI in their businesses. Learn More
In recent years, when central banks were embarking on quantitative easing, investors approached cash as an asset class afterthought given the rock-bottom yields. But the end of QE – and the prospect of rate volatility – has reignited investors’ interest. We sat down with Goldman Sachs’ Kathleen Hughes and Christina Kopec who discussed how clients are investing in cash – and why they’re focused on more than just yield. Learn More
Across Asia, companies are getting more serious about sustainability. We sat down with Goldman Sachs Research’s Sharmini Chetwode, who shared how companies are increasing their disclosures around environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors and how investors are integrating ESG into their investing framework. Learn More
Despite weaknesses in South Africa’s economy, improving business confidence and the promise of structural reforms create the potential for higher economic growth rates going forward, according to Goldman Sachs’ Colin Coleman, the firm’s sub-Saharan Africa head, and Kunal Shah and Ryad Yousuf, who are leading the firm’s market-making expansion into South Africa. We talked with them about the evolving macroeconomic and political landscape in South Africa, as well as the opportunities and challenges for investors. Learn More
As we hit the year's halfway point, investors are faced with an unusual phenomenon in global markets: riskier assets like equities have rallied alongside their safer peers like bonds and gold. Does this mean the asset classes are sending conflicting signals? Not necessarily, says Goldman Sachs Research’s Christian Mueller-Glissmann. We sat down with him to discuss this apparent disconnect in risk appetite and the outlook for the second half. Learn More
The race to roll out 5G networks is accelerating across the globe, with US-China trade tensions putting equipment makers in the spotlight. For China, the transition to faster wireless should bring a wave of opportunities for technology stocks, from increased semiconductor demand to a surge in consumer device upgrades, says Goldman Sachs Research’s Allen Chang. We sat down with him to learn more about the scope of the opportunity and how trade tensions could impact rollout. Learn More
In a trend that has reshaped the financial landscape, private markets continue to gain traction as a popular alternative for companies to raise money. Mike Voris and Lyle Schwartz, who lead Goldman Sachs’ equity private placements business globally, recently shared their views on the drivers and implications for both companies and investors. Learn More
Amid the growth of environmental, social and governance (ESG) investing, the private sector is increasingly looking to harness capital markets to finance positive social outcomes. Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs hosted a roundtable in Paris with investors, issuers and ratings agencies to discuss the opportunities and challenges in the nascent social bonds market. We sat down with Goldman Sachs’ Ivan Fillon, Kathleen Hughes, Marc d’Andlau and Kyung-Ah Park to discuss the takeaways from the event. Learn More
Once lofty expectations for an electric-car future may have been temporarily scaled back, but the adoption of hybrid vehicles is continuing to accelerate. We sat down with Goldman Sachs Research’s Kota Yuzawa who explained why companies are investing in their hybrid technologies before EVs take off in earnest. Learn More
Ahead of this week's 23rd annual European Financials Conference in Paris -- one of Goldman Sachs' longest-running events in Europe -- we sat down with Jernej Omahen, head of European Financials Research, to discuss the challenges facing Europe's banks and insurers, from earnings pressures, to political and macro uncertainty, to competition from fintech startups. Learn More