11 JAN 2021

US Resilient

Investment Strategy Group
Goldman Sachs Private Wealth Management
January 2021


Two themes, US Preeminence and Staying Invested, have driven our strategic and tactical investment recommendations to clients since the trough of the global financial crisis in March 2009. These themes have served our clients well, as US equities have provided outsized returns relative to other asset classes. Unsurprisingly, clients and colleagues are now asking, as they periodically do but perhaps more so this year, whether it is time to change course.

In this year’s Outlook, we provide the data and analysis underlying our view to stay the course with our two investment themes. We begin with a review of the factors that underpin US preeminence, including favorable demographics, abundant natural resources, high labor productivity and unparalleled rates of innovation. We will demonstrate that those who have predicted the decline of the US have been proven wrong time and again. We believe today’s declinists will be similarly proven wrong. We then turn to the investment case for staying invested at this time. We conclude with our one- and five-year expected returns and the risks to our outlook.

We put forth this Outlook with a strong dose of humility. Formulating an economic and financial market outlook is a herculean task in the best of times—it has been made that much more daunting by a global pandemic that has turned everyone’s personal and professional lives upside down.

We invite you to read our views and investment recommendations in Outlook 2021: US Resilient.


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