Macro Outlook 2025: Tailwinds (Probably) Trump Tariffs

Goldman Sachs Research economists expect the second Trump administration to bring higher China and auto tariffs, much lower immigration, some fresh tax cuts, and regulatory easing. If so, they forecast that the US economy will grow 2.5% in 2025, outperforming consensus expectations and other DM economies for the third year in a row. According to the economists, the biggest risk is a large across-the-board tariff, which would likely hit growth hard.