Is China Investable?

As the Chinese government continues to carry out unprecedented regulatory tightening, what the new regulatory environment means for China’s growth, investment outlook and beyond is Top of Mind. Goldman Sachs Research gets perspectives from Primavera Capital’s Fred Hu, Oxford University’s George Magnus, Tsinghua University’s David Li and CSIS’s Jude Blanchette, and our own economists and strategists. Hu, Li and our analysts view these shifts as largely consistent with the goal of achieving sustainable and socially responsible growth, suggesting limited damage to China’s longer-term growth and investment prospects, despite the likelihood of continued market volatility and a growth drag over the shorter term. But Magnus and Blanchette see strong political motivations at work, especially in the run-up to next year’s important 20th Party Congress, and are more concerned about the longer-term growth and investing implications. That said, we find little evidence of spillover effects beyond China from these shifts so far, with EM assets remaining resilient, and expect this to largely continue.