Goldman Sachs Research features original insights on the economy, markets and industries, drawn from research teams around the world.
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Is AI already boosting US power demand?
Investors are focused on how AI and data centers may boost US power demand over the next decade. To see where and how data centers show up in actual US power data, Goldman Sachs Research analysts analyze the growth of power consumption in Virginia, where US data centers are highly concentrated.
Womenomics: 25 years and the quiet revolution
Twenty-five years ago, Goldman Sachs Research first published on women’s contributions to the labour force, the opportunity for greater participation and the economic possibilities this provided in research led by the former head of Japan Portfolio Strategy, Kathy Matsui. Her research helped shape the policy agenda. Sharon Bell and Yuriko Tanaka return to some of her themes. There is much to cheer but also much to do.
Music in the Air: Focus on monetisation, emerging markets and AI; updating global music industry forecasts
According to Goldman Sachs Research, 2023 was a turning point for the music industry in many respects, marked by the first ever major price increase by global streaming platforms, the modernisation of outdated royalty payment structures and the deployment of Generative AI.
GS SUSTAIN: Generational Growth — AI/data centers' global power surge and the sustainability impact
Data center power demand is poised to grow 160% by the end of the decade, according to Goldman Sachs Research. The analysts believe this should enhance investment opportunities across the power supply chain benefitting from Green Capex, volume growth and innovation.
Powering Up Europe: AI datacenters and electrification to drive +c.40%-50% growth in electricity consumption
Goldman Sachs Research analysts estimate that Europe’s power demand could grow by +c.40% in the next 10 years, fueled by the rapid expansion of datacenters and a pickup in the electrification process.
Generational Growth: AI, data centers and the coming US power demand surge
Global data center power demand is poised to more than double by 2030 after being flattish in 2015-20. Goldman Sachs Research analysts believe downstream investment opportunities in utilities, renewable generation and industrials whose investment and products will be needed to support this growth are underappreciated.
GS SUSTAIN: Adaptation: physical risk, financial risk, opportunity
GS Research believes Adaptation – proactive or reactive measures to mitigate impacts of rising temperatures – will become a growing theme that investors and corporates will focus on through the lens of physical risk, financial risk and revenue opportunity.
Humanoid robot: The AI accelerant
Goldman Sachs Research has updated its forecasts for the market for humanoid robots. Their findings include estimates for the global market for humanoid robots, the sector’s capacity to reduce labor shortages, and the hurdles to realizing those estimates.
GCC Capex Wave Series: The rise in low-carbon capex
Continuing on from their recently launched GCC Capex Wave Series, our Goldman Sachs Research analysts have released the second report in the series. In this report, they identify the projects being implemented by GCC countries on the path to achieving their decarbonization targets.
India 2024 Outlook: Port of calm in a “Higher for Longer” world
Goldman Sachs Research economists expect macro-economic resilience to continue in India amidst steady growth at 6.3% yoy. The year will likely be a tale of two halves: Pre-elections, government spending will likely be the growth driver. Post-elections, they expect investment growth to re-accelerate, especially from the private side.
Carbonomics: Updated cost curve shows diverging trends between power and transport
Our Goldman Sachs Research analysts have updated their de-carbonization cost curve for the fifth consecutive year. Their findings show the continued evolution of the cost curve with the lower end more expensive as it is impacted by lower commodity prices, inflation and interest rates. While technologies at the high cost end of the cost curve, dominated by transportation benefit from lower battery prices.
2024 Global Credit Outlook: Back in the Saddle
Goldman Sachs Research expects 2024 will in some ways be a mirror image of 2023 given the tighter starting level of spreads, higher starting level for yields, and the end of the hiking cycles in the US and Euro area.
2024 US Equity Outlook: “All You Had To Do Was Stay”
Goldman Sachs Research forecasts the S&P 500 index will end 2024 at 4700, representing a 12-month price gain of 5% and a total return of 6% including dividends.
European Economics Analyst: Euro Area Outlook 2024: Fading Headwinds
Despite a mixed year for the Euro area, Goldman Sachs Research economists highlight three reasons they expect 2024 to be a better year: diminished headwinds, inflation normalization and a more supportive ECB.
US Economics Analyst: 2024 US Economic Outlook: Final Descent
Goldman Sachs Research expects GDP to grow 1.8% in 2024 on a Q4/Q4 basis (or 2.1% on a full-year basis), again easily beating low consensus expectations. Our economists forecast just under 2% consumption growth, with real disposable income growth of nearly 3% partly offset by a 1pp rise in the saving rate and expect the FOMC to deliver its first rate cut in 2024Q4 once core PCE inflation falls below 2.5%.
European Economics Analyst: UK Outlook 2024: Not So Different After All
Goldman Sachs Research expects UK growth to improve modestly in 2024 as real disposable income rises and the growth drag from the BoE’s tightening diminishes. Our economists look for growth of 0.6% next year, slightly above consensus.
Global Markets Outlook 2024: Towards a Better Balance
Goldman Sachs Research highlights 10 core investment themes that drive many of its market views.
Macro Outlook 2024: The Hard Part is Over
Goldman Sachs Research expects several tailwinds to global growth in 2024, including strong real household income growth, a smaller drag from monetary and fiscal tightening, a recovery in manufacturing activity, and an increased willingness of central banks to deliver insurance cuts if growth slows.
Climate Transition Tool 2.0: Bridging gaps, enhancing sectoral scope, highlighting performance links
Investors are increasingly focused on quantifying the transition progress of corporates based on the 3Ps – Plan, Path and Performance. Goldman Sachs Research analysts update their Climate Transition Tool, which continues to be applied across more than 7,000 publicly-traded companies.
Saudi Arabia Capex Super-Cycle: Diversifying, Decarbonizing, Digitalizing
Goldman Sachs Research analysts introduce their GCC Capex Wave Series, where they map out the region’s investments across sectors. They start with Saudi Arabia, the GCC’s largest economy.
SFDR, two years on - trends and anatomy of Article 8 & 9 funds in 2023
More than two years on from the launch of the EU Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation (SFDR), SFDR continues to drive flows and the transition of non-ESG funds towards ESG in Europe and beyond. In this report, Goldman Sachs Research analysts assess large Article 8 and 9 funds to explore how they are tackling key requirements of SFDR.
How quantifying Avoided Emissions can broaden the decarbonization investment universe
In this report, GS Research discusses why they believe quantifying avoided emissions can broaden the decarbonization investment universe.
Carbonomics: The third American energy revolution
The US Shale revolution is entering its age of maturity and eventual decline. Goldman Sachs Research analysts estimate that renewable technologies can deliver twice the scale of energy produced by shale, unlocking $3 trn of infrastructure investment over the coming decade.
Balancing Growth with Decarbonisation
India's electricity sector is undergoing a generational shift as the country attempts to grow and decarbonize simultaneously, according to Goldman Sachs Research. The analysts foresee the beginning of a peak power deficit cycle, increasing the importance of storage-backed round-the-clock renewable energy (RTC RE). The viability of RTC RE in certain use cases will provide an economic incentive for transition, and unlock a superior business model for utilities.
EUV 3.0: High NA a prime Digital Enabler for the next decade
In this report, Goldman Sachs Research analysts explore High NA, the next generation of Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography (EUV). The $600bn global semiconductor market is estimated to reach over $1trn by 2030 and Goldman Sachs Research sees High NA as a key European Digital Enabler as it will be critical in the advancement of smaller and more powerful chips, required to power leading edge technologies such as AI, high-performance computing (HPC) and autonomous driving.
Top Projects 2023: Back to growth
Goldman Sachs Research’s 20th edition of its annual review of top assets in global oil and gas production signals a turning point in the oil & gas capex cycle, as higher returns and a renewed sense of urgency around security of supply bring the industry back to growth.
Global Strategy Paper: Women (Still) Hold Up Half the Sky
In developed and developing countries alike, gender gaps persist in education, health, work, wages and political participation. Goldman Sachs Research finds that shrinking working age populations mean that it is now more important than ever to utilize the full resources women have to offer (and to reward them fully).
The Case for Investing in HBCUs
Historically Black Colleges and Universities play a crucial role in promoting social and economic mobility for Black Americans, but they’re systemically underfunded. A new report from Goldman Sachs Research delves into the data and discusses actions that policymakers and the private sector can take to bridge funding gaps.
GS SUSTAIN: Green Capex - What's on Track and Spare Capacity
Goldman Sachs Research refreshes its analysis of what’s on track and continues to see private sector Green Capex per year $0.9 tn higher this decade vs. the 2016-20 annual run rate, though with lower but still substantial spare capacity among publicly-traded companies for additional investment.
Global Metals & Mining: Direct Lithium Extraction – A potential game changing technology
Goldman Sachs Research analysts explore the progress, economics, and implications of DLE being implemented at scale, with increasing relevance in the context of Chile's recent National Lithium Policy.
GS SUSTAIN: Biodiversity – TNFD releases recommended disclosure metrics
In this report, Goldman Sachs Research analysts break down changes to the Taskforce on Nature-Related Financial Disclosures (TNFD) framework and the new metric disclosure recommendations, discuss data availability and potential implications for corporate reporting, and highlight takeaways on how this development may influence the regulatory environment and investing in Biodiversity moving forward.
GS SUSTAIN: Biodiversity – Next Steps Post COP 15
In this report, Goldman Sachs research analysts identify eight targets included in the final agreement from COP 15 that they think could have the most impact driving the global conversation around nature restoration and conservation moving forward.
Global Macroscope – Global Strategy Conference: Results of Our 2023 ‘PM Question Time’
On January 16th Goldman Sachs Research held its 31st annual Global Strategy Conference in London, which was attended by over 400 clients in person, for the first time since the pandemic.
2023 Commodity Outlook: An Underinvested Supercycle
Just as commodity markets have been dominated by the dollar in 2022, Goldman Sachs Commodities analysts expect them to be shaped by underinvestment in 2023.
The Path to 2075 — Slower Global Growth, But Convergence Remains Intact
Two decades since Goldman Sachs Research first set out long-term growth projections for the BRICs economies, GS Research economists update and expand those projections to cover 104 countries out to 2075 and identify four major themes for the global economy.
Carbonomics: The Economics of Net Zero
As a cornerstone of their Carbonomics analysis, our Goldman Sachs Research analysts have updated their de-carbonization cost curve for 2022.
2023 US Economic Outlook: Approaching a Soft Landing
The key macroeconomic question of the year has been whether inflationary overheating can be reversed without a recession. Analysis from Goldman Sachs Research economists suggests that the answer is yes—an extended period of below-potential growth can gradually reverse labor market overheating and bring down wage growth and ultimately inflation, providing a feasible if challenging path to a soft landing.
Japan Economics 2023 Outlook: Focus on Wage Growth and BOJ Leadership Change
While our Goldman Sachs Research economists expect Japan’s real GDP growth to slow to 1.3% in 2023, from 1.5% in 2022, they look for growth to continue to outpace its potential. Consumption is likely to directly benefit from economic reopening, and they also expect capex to remain firm on the back of pent-up demand, labor shortages due both to demographics and reopening, and supply chain rebuilding.
Asia Views: 2023 Outlook: Inflation Peaks and Growth Troughs
Economic growth is likely to start 2023 on the weak side across most of the Asia-Pacific, according to Goldman Sachs Research economists, as a fading reopening boost, slowing global manufacturing cycle, and past monetary tightening weigh on activity. As these headwinds fade and China’s reopening gets underway, they expect growth to reaccelerate. While most of our economists’ GDP forecasts are a little below consensus for 2023 as a whole, they are more positive on second-half growth, particularly in China.
China 2023 Outlook: After Winter Comes Spring
After a very challenging 2022, Goldman Sachs Research economists expect China GDP growth to accelerate from 3.0% this year to 4.5% next year on the back of China’s potential exit from its zero-Covid policy, which they assume will start shortly after the “Two Sessions” in March. China’s reopening would imply a strong consumption rebound, firming core inflation, and gradually normalizing cyclical policies in 2023.
2023 Europe Outlook: Milder Recession, Higher Terminal Rate
Goldmans Sachs Research economists maintain their long-held view that the energy crisis will push the European economy into recession this winter, as surveys and production data point to a sizeable slowing in energy-intensive industries, and high inflation will reduce real household incomes. But they now see a shallower recession as the hard data have remained surprisingly resilient, the rebalancing of the gas market has reduced the risk of energy rationing and governments have provided significant fiscal support.
GS SUSTAIN: ESG of the Future–Accelerating the Energy Transition: Metrics and Tools to Measure Progress
As Sustainability investing matures to the “Measurement” phase of its cycle and becomes more forward-looking, there is rising focus on how to quantify impact — whether environmental or social.
Macro Outlook 2023: This Cycle Is Different
Global growth slowed through 2022 on a diminishing reopening boost, fiscal and monetary tightening, China’s Covid restrictions and property slump, and the Russia-Ukraine war. Goldman Sachs Research analysts expect global growth of just 1.8% in 2023, as US resilience contrasts with a European recession and a bumpy reopening in China.
GS SUSTAIN: Green Capex - Accelerating the Energy Transition - Stimulating Capital and Return on Capital
In this report, Goldman Sachs Research highlights where capital is needed, what investors are rewarding and strategies/vehicles to stimulate investment with a case study on China decarbonization strategies. To stimulate greater capital towards the Energy Transition and broader sustainable development goals, GS Research analysts believe stakeholders such as investors, managements and policymakers should deploy the three Cs: collaboration, comprehensive focus, and corporate returns clarity.
GS SUSTAIN: Green Capex - US Inflation Reduction Act - What's Transformational, What's Supportive, What's Underappreciated
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) — signed into law by President Biden on August 16 — provides about $386 billion in energy and climate spending over 10 years, with related tax incentives up about $265 billion from the prior run rate. With annual investment needed globally this decade to be on path for Net Zero by 2050 +$1.8 trillion vs. the annual run rate in 2016-20, the IRA is helpful but not an immediate panacea to put the world on track. Goldman Sachs Research Analysts see the IRA as a catalyst to accelerate investment in longer-term carbon capture utilization and storage projects. GS Research Analysts also see the IRA as supportive for solar, electric vehicles, residential clean energy and nuclear energy.
Carbonomics: Affordability, Security and Innovation
Goldman Sachs Research analysts update their Carbonomics cost curve and arrive at three key conclusions. Overall, ‘the revenge of the old carbon economy’ keeps driving a disjointed de-carbonization process that is both inflationary and inefficient. However, GS Research analysts see some clean tech green shoots, with clean hydrogen at the cusp of a regulatory and economic breakthrough.
GS Sustain: SFDR Updates - Latest Flows, Guidance, Views, and a Framework for Sustainable Investments
Given nearly all assets are moving towards Article 8 and 9 funds in Europe, Goldman Sachs Research analysts see an overly strict interpretation of SFDR risks exacerbating a 'Divestment Dilemma.' SFDR continues to drive flows and the transition of non-ESG funds towards ESG (Article 8 and 9) funds as managers find it increasingly difficult to market Article 6 (non-ESG) funds in Europe. Contrary to headlines highlighting trends in downgrades of funds from Article 9 to 8, GS Research analysts see more upgrades from Article 8 to 9 funds vs. their prior assessment. Goldman Sachs Research shares its latest views and interpretations of SFDR and establish a framework for 'Sustainable Investments.'
GS Sustain: Biodiversity - Assessing the Financial Links to Natural Capital
Biodiversity is the cornerstone around which most sustainability objectives sit and an area to which we think corporates and investors will likely pay increased attention in order to meet sustainability goals. In this report, Goldman Sachs Research analysts review the three catalysts they believe are needed to potentially increase investment in biodiversity over time.
Music in the Air
In this report, Goldman Sachs Research analysts address the most recent commonly asked questions: (i) Has music streaming penetration peaked? (ii) How is music spend affected by a macro downturn? (iii) How to size the monetization opportunity from emerging platforms? and (iv) What is the outlook for catalogue spend?
Short-form video-rization: Assessing the Potential Ceiling and Lessons from China
Immersive short-form video (SFV) has become the largest single time spent format in the China internet space. Goldman Sachs Research introduces its bear/base/bull case at 21%/25%/30% by 2025E, after assessing penetration potential from the lens of categories/users/merchants/facilitators.
Bear Repair: The Bumpy Road to Recovery
Goldman Sachs Research expects the next bull market to be 'Fatter & Flatter' than the last. In this report, analysts describe and analyze the trigger points around market transition markers in an attempt to understand the likely path following the powerful equity rally since June.
The Energy Affordability Crisis: Quantification, Solutions, Implications
Goldman Sachs Research analysts believe that the Energy Crisis, in particular affordability, has reached a tipping point that likely requires significant policy intervention. At current forward prices Goldman Sachs Research analysts estimate that energy bills will peak early next year at c.€500/month for a typical European family, implying a c.200% increase vs. 2021.
GS Sustain: Telecoms - The Fibre & 5G Decarbonisation Debate
Goldman Sachs Research analysts see fibre and 5G as critical technologies necessary to reducing the Information and Communications Technology (ICT) sector's overall carbon footprint and enabling low-carbon technologies across the broader economy.
Why a Recession Would Likely Be Mild
The US economy has about a one in three chance of slipping into recession by the middle of 2023, according to Goldman Sachs Research economists. They believe that any post-Covid US recession would likely be mild, with a limited increase in the unemployment rate of around 1 percentage point. This would be unprecedented in postwar US history, though recessions with similarly limited increases have occurred in other G10 economies, such as Germany and Canada.
China Agriculture: Addressing China Food Security - Revolution of Tradition
As food supply faces increasing challenges due to cyclical and disruptive factors, and structurally heightened risks from climate change, Goldman Sachs Research analysts view agriculture efficiency as an essential part of the long-term solution for food security. And for China, much can be done in revolutionizing the efficiency as smarter agriculture thrives.
Carbonomics: Re-Imagining Europe's Energy System
Can Europe strengthen its energy independence in the face of the Russia-Ukraine crisis without compromising its climate change goals? Goldman Sachs Research uses its Carbonomics framework to model the evolution of Europe’s energy system towards a lower cost, lower imports, lower carbon system.
The Green Technology Cycle: SiC
The outlook for increased Silicon Carbide (SiC) uptake as a more efficient alternative to silicon that can save costs and improve performance, especially in automotive applications, has accelerated over the past half year. Goldman Sachs Research analysts now expect an inflection point for rapid market growth potentially two years sooner than projected.
Revisiting Recession Facts
Goldman Sachs Research analysts estimate that the risk of the economy entering a recession in the next year is 30% in the US, 40% in the Euro area, and 45% in the UK. In this report, they revisit key facts about the frequency and severity of recessions by analyzing 77 recessions in advanced economies since 1961.
Green Capex: Greenflation, Returns and Opportunity
Green Capex will be the dominant driver of global infrastructure over the next decade and will be critical for achieving Net Zero, Infrastructure and Clean Water goals. In this report, Goldman Sachs Research analysts explore rising capex and R&D expectations, and consider government commitments to increase or stimulate Green Capex.
Batteries: The Greenflation Challenge II
In this report, Goldman Sachs Research analysts discuss six key topics about greenflation that are relevant to investors and increase their battery pack price forecasts.
Global Views: Still on the Same Narrow Path
While the increase in US nonfarm payrolls in May beat expectations, the unemployment rate has been flat for three months to early June, job openings have started to decline and the official JOLTS series dropped sharply in April. For these reasons, Goldman Sachs Research sees the US economy on a narrow path to a soft landing.
Battery Metals Watch: The End of the Beginning
Goldman Sachs Research analysts argue that the battery metals bull market has peaked. With climate change being top of mind, investors are fully aware that battery metals will play a crucial role in the 21st century global economy, just as bulk and base metals did before them.
GS Sustain: Supply Chain Mosaic
Goldman Sachs Research is introducing a new framework for generalists and ESG investors, the GS SUSTAIN Supply Chain Mosaic, to plug gaps in a patchy data landscape for measuring supply chain risks and to assess business resilience. The collaborative framework blends data on supply chain location and concentration with GS SUSTAIN proprietary scoring of suppliers’ ESG engagement and sovereign ESG risk.
The Economics of Algorithmic Stablecoins
GS Research analysts examine the major drop in cryptocurrency prices and how digital asset markets have been dominated by volatility in stablecoins (cryptocurrencies intended to be pegged 1:1 with fiat currencies, most commonly the US Dollar). While these assets are fairly new, many of the economic issues affecting stablecoins will be familiar to FX market participants and other investors.
The Postmodern Cycle
From the 1980s a 'Modern Cycle' evolved driven by lower inflation, independent central banks, globalization, lower volatility, longer cycles and higher profit shares of GDP. GS Research analysts argue that we are entering a new 'Postmodern' cycle in which inflation is a bigger risk than deflation. They also predict that we are likely to see greater regionalization, more expensive labor and commodities, as well as larger and more active governments.
ESG of the Future: A Forward Look at Corporate Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Potential ESG Improvers
Goldman Sachs Research expects increased focus on corporate emissions of greenhouse gases as ESG markets become more forward-looking and in response to both rising regulations including proposals from the SEC and carbon pricing considerations.
GS Sustain: The Evolution Towards a Circular Economy
The need to move towards a Circular Economy – one in which consumption of ecological resources is equal to or less than what the planet can regenerate – has been discussed for years but not sufficiently deployed. However, we see three catalysts that can push forward deployment of Circular Economy solutions, which, based on a World Economic Forum study, could potentially unlock $1 tn of annual materials savings.
Green Metals: Nickel's Class Divide
Nickel now sits at the intersection of Europe’s push for decarbonisation and energy independence. With Europe’s domestic EV sector already favouring nickel-based batteries, nickel is set to benefit the most from politically motivated demand accelerating already rapid growth in nickel battery use.
Green Metals: Solving Aluminium’s Climate Paradox
At the heart of the coming surge in green aluminium demand lies a paradox: aluminium is a key input required to produce decarbonising technologies like EV’s and solar power, yet its own production is very carbon intensive, generating 2% of all global emissions. This paradox begs the question: how can we secure enough aluminium to effectively decarbonise, while keeping the climate impact of the path to net zero to a minimum?
Green Metals: Copper is the New Oil
The critical role copper will play in achieving the Paris climate goals cannot be overstated. As the most cost-effective conductive material, copper sits at the heart of capturing, storing and transporting these new sources of energy.
Asianomics in America: Contributions and Challenges
Goldman Sachs Research reviews the key economic trends shaping the Asian American experience in the US, the barriers they face to advancement in the workplace and representation in top leadership positions, and the contributions they’ve made to innovation and GDP growth.
SFDR, One Year On: The Trends and Anatomy of Article 8 & 9 Funds
One year after the launch of the first stage of the European Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation (SFDR), SFDR funds are growing significantly compared to non-ESG counterparts. The GS SUSTAIN team has reviewed the implications of the SFDR regulation and disclosure requirements. Their analysis of the various approaches taken across asset managers concludes that not all Article 8 or 9 funds are created equal, in a good way.
ESG Regulations: US SEC Proposes Major New Climate Disclosure Requirements
The GS SUSTAIN team believes that 2022 will be a watershed year for ESG-related capital markets regulation in the US. The climate disclosure rule proposal from the SEC on 21 March 2022 opens the door for the broadest federally mandated corporate ESG data disclosure requirement ever in the US.
Carbonomics: Security of Supply and the Return of Energy Capex
The Russia-Ukraine conflict is a turning point for the energy sector, according to analysis from Goldman Sachs Research. One that is similar to, and potentially greater than, the Fukushima nuclear accident and Libyan civil war concurrence in 2011. In this report, analysts examine this Return of Energy Capex and draw five key conclusions.
Batteries: The Greenflation Challenge
Ever-increasing demand, component shortages and rising raw material prices are now challenging the long-standing consensus that battery prices will continue to decline in the coming decade. To assess the impact of this “Greenflation” and potential supply chain bottlenecks ahead, Goldman Sachs Research introduces a proprietary battery pack price and cost curve model, supply-demand models across battery components and a bear case battery TAM scenario.
Electric Vehicles: What's Next VII: Confronting Greenflation
In this report, the seventh installment of our Electric Vehicles: What’s Next series, analysts from Goldman Sachs Research outline their new forecast for a slower pace of decline for automotive battery prices through 2025, and they consider the outlook for the EV and automotive battery markets under three scenarios (bear, base, and hyper-adoption).
Oil: Squaring Russia's Missing Barrels
Escalating military conflict in Ukraine and the growing realization that imposed sanctions could meaningfully and sustainably reduce Russian exports, even with carve-outs for energy trade, has resulted in oil prices surging to their highest level since 2008. Given Russia’s key role in global energy supply, the global economy could soon be faced with one of the largest energy supply shocks ever. Goldman Sachs Research builds three scenarios in an attempt to provide an estimate of where oil prices are heading.
Global Markets Daily: How Much Risk is Priced into Global Assets Now?
The invasion of Ukraine and the escalating sanctions on Russia continue to be the dominant driver of markets. Before the start of military action, Goldman Sachs Research estimated how much geopolitical risk premium was priced into a range of global assets and estimated how those assets might move in the case of either a full de-escalation or a version of a scenario where risks flared into outright conflict.
GS Sustain: An Analysis of APAC ESG Regulation
The increased need for greater transparency and tightened definitions for sustainable investment products is accelerating ESG regulation throughout the Asia Pacific region. These companion reports from the Goldman Sachs Research GS SUSTAIN team explore the material ESG regulations emerging across the region and highlight the connection between regulation and expanding green valuation premia.
The Bigger Picture: UK Social Mobility - A Tough Climb
The UK performs poorly on international comparisons for both social mobility and inequality. According to surveys, covid is increasing inequality further, and recent rises in inflation, especially energy costs, are intensifying the problem. But, corporate managements are starting to focus on social issues (encouraged by the flows into ESG funds). Goldman Sachs Research has started to see investment intentions pick up in survey data and the potential to bring back supply locally or make supply chains more resilient may also increase employment opportunities in the UK.
A Shares in Anatomy: 'A' Primer for Global Investors
At a time when some investors are questioning the investability of Chinese assets due to significant regulation and growth concerns, Goldman Sachs Research believes China A shares, a US$14tn asset class, have become more investable given the ongoing liberalization and reform measures in the Chinese capital markets.
Korea: What if? Strong Upside from Potential MSCI DM Reclassification and Narrowing of Valuation Discount
Korea’s potential reclassification as a developed market is gaining traction. The Finance Minister and Korea Exchange Chairman have publicly advocated changes that specifically address impediments to MSCI upgrading Korea to developed market (DM) status. Also, there appears to be broad political consensus for the upgrade initiative given the election platforms of the major presidential candidates.
Black Womenomics: Equalizing Entrepreneurship
Black women are underrepresented in business ownership. What will it take to equalize their opportunities? Goldman Sachs Research examined some of the barriers.
Moving to Seven Rate Hikes in 2022
Following the strong CPI print on February 10th, Goldman Sachs Research is raising their Fed forecast to include seven consecutive 25bp rate hikes at each of the remaining FOMC meetings in 2022 (vs. five hikes in 2022 previously). They continue to expect the FOMC to hike three more times at a gradual once-per-quarter pace in 2023Q1-Q3 and to reach the same terminal rate of 2.5-2.75%, but earlier.
Carbonomics: The Clean Hydrogen Revolution
Clean hydrogen has emerged as a critical pillar to any aspiring net zero path. Policy, affordability, and scalability are converging to create unprecedented momentum for the clean hydrogen economy.
EU Taxonomy - Progress on the Journey to Alignment
The EU Taxonomy is ramping up to become the “common green standard” used to credentialize companies’ green revenue and capex as well as investors’ green investments. With the initial climate phase having taken effect, Goldman Sachs Research sees 2022 becoming a critical period of experimentation and engagement between investors and corporates around disclosures and alignment-estimation models leading up to full Taxonomy application from January 1, 2023.
Electrify Now: The rise of Power in European Economies
While previous Goldman Sachs Research has focused on the 2050 net zero end game, here they explore a more immediate, more tangible topic; one that is poised to revolutionize European economies and our everyday lives: the urgency of electrification.
US Economics Analyst: 10 Questions on the Political and Policy Outlook for 2022
Will Congress pass any reconciliation package this year? Will Democrats maintain control of Congress after the November midterm elections? Goldman Sachs Research’s economists offer insight into these questions and more.
European Economics Analyst: 10 Questions for 2022
Although the renewed surge in Covid infections is likely to weigh on services activity over the winter, Goldman Sachs Research expects a more manageable hit to European economic activity than last year.
Asia Economics Analyst: Ten questions for 2022
Regional growth will decelerate this year, but should remain above trend in many economies.
EU Taxonomy Update - Inclusion of Natural Gas and Nuclear
The European Commission has released plans to include some natural gas and nuclear energy power plants as ‘green’ under the existing EU Taxonomy’s Climate Change Mitigation objective. We believe this would help provide some guarantee to Europe’s volatile energy supply as renewables scale and help ensure a smoother transition to a low carbon economy.
Global Views: Earlier Runoff, Four Hikes
Chief Economist Jan Hatzius discusses the Omicron variant's effect on the economic outlook for 2022, and how persistent inflationary pressures could modify the Fed’s schedule for hikes and balance sheet normalization.
Framing the Future of Web 3.0: Metaverse Edition
In this report, Goldman Sachs Research examines how the gaming/media landscape has already shown some key elements as to how the Metaverse might evolve and how themes such as decentralized web activity and virtual experiences could become hallmarks of many of the next wave of computing in Web 3.0.
Investing in EM Womenomics
Recent years have seen a surge in investing with social and environmental impact in mind, including across emerging markets. One aspect of social impact investing concerns the role of women in the economy – or Womenomics. To assess how investing based on Womenomics can impact investment returns, Goldman Sachs Research constructed a Womenomics Index across emerging markets sovereign debt based on five factors: education, labour, agency, women in power and health.
Carbonomics: The Dual Action of Capital Markets Transforms the Net Zero Cost Curve
In this report Goldman Sachs Research examines how capital markets' deep engagement in sustainability is driving de-carbonization through a divergence in the cost of capital of high carbon vs. low carbon investments.
Outlook 2022: The Long Road to Higher Rates
Goldman Sachs Research says the fastest pace of the recovery now lies behind us, but there are reasons for optimism on global growth heading into 2022.
Carbonomics: Taking the Temperature of European Corporates - An Implied Temperature Rise (ITR) Toolkit
In this report Goldman Sachs Research leverages their Carbonomics Net Zero Paths to gauge the implied temperature rise of corporate de-carbonization through the lenses of >110 corporates in the 15 most carbon intensive sectors of the European market.
EM Ex-China as a Separate Equity Asset Class
With a strengthening debate among investors for splitting an emerging market (EM) mandate into China and EM ex-China strategies, given China’s significant market size, its rising dominance in the EM benchmark and idiosyncratic factors such as geopolitics and regulatory policy that could affect its performance, Goldman Sachs Research discusses the implications for investors and portfolio allocations.
Green Capex: Making Infrastructure Happen
Goldman Sachs Research believes Green Capex will be the dominant driver of global infrastructure over the next decade, with $6 trillion of investment needed annually to decarbonize the world, address water needs and shore up transportation and other critical systems.
Indian Equities: Digital Transformation as Private Goes Public
The number of “unicorns” has surged in India in recent years, enabled by the rise of the internet ecosystem, availability of private capital and a favorable regulatory environment. Goldman Sachs Research expects the IPO pipeline to remain robust over the next 12-24 months, with market cap increasing from US$3.5tn currently to over US$5tn by 2024, making India the 5th largest market by capitalization.
Carbonomics: Five Themes of Progress for COP26
COP26 is a historical opportunity to accelerate the de-carbonization pledges laid out by COP21 (the Paris Agreement) in 2015. In this report Goldman Sachs Research analyzes five key themes of change they believe can drive progress.
Carbonomics: Introducing the GS Net Zero Carbon Models and Sector Frameworks
Goldman Sachs Research presents modelling for two paths to net zero carbon, with two global models of de-carbonization by sector and technology, leveraging the team’s proprietary Carbonomics cost curve.
Euro 2020—Modelling the Beautiful Game
Following a year of delay, the Euro 2020 will finally go ahead on June 11. As the excitement for the tournament builds, Goldman Sachs Research constructs a statistical model to simulate the European Cup, which we intend to update as the tournament progresses.
Black Womenomics: Investing in the Underinvested
Goldman Sachs research has shown that one of the fastest ways to accelerate change and effectively begin to address the racial wealth gap is to listen to and invest in Black women. Our Black Womenomics research focuses on the wealth gap, its relationship with these economic disadvantages, and the public and private investment opportunities to help close these gaps.
Q&A on Womenomics: Where is Europe now?
As progress on female representation at executive levels continues, Goldman Sachs Research reviews some of the key questions encountered in response to its research.
Carbonomics: China Net Zero - The Clean Tech Revolution
China’s pledge to achieve net zero carbon by 2060 represents two-thirds of the c.48% of global emissions from countries that have pledged net zero, and could transform China's economy, starting with the 14th Five-Year Plan.
Carbonomics: 10 Key Themes From the Inaugural Conference
Goldman Sachs Research hosted its first Carbonomics conference in London on November 12, focused on the de-carbonization trends and technologies currently transforming all major industries. The virtual conference convened approximately 5,000 investors, company managers, regulators and industry experts, with speakers and panelists including 30 CEOs of leading corporates and key policymakers.
Measuring the Reopening of America: Range of Recovery Paths Widen for Different Categories, Remain a ‘4’
In week 25 of the Measuring the Reopening of America series, several back-to-normal categories that had improved over the past few weeks reversed trends, including lodging and dining, while stay-at-home vertical growth largely decelerated. Net, our composite score remains the same as last week as the pace of reopening continues to fluctuate across different categories but the overall trend fails to show progress for essentially the third month.
Carbonomics: Innovation, Deflation, and Affordable De-carbonization
Net zero is becoming more affordable as technological and financial innovation, supported by policy, are flattening the de-carbonization cost curve. Goldman Sachs Research updates its 2019 Carbonomics cost curve to reflect innovation across c.100 different technologies to de-carbonize power, mobility, buildings, agriculture and industry, and draw three key conclusions.
Womenomics: Europe Moving Ahead
In Europe there are some tantalising signs of progress on women’s contribution to the economy: most notably, participation rates for women in the workforce have risen dramatically and continue to move up. In many European countries they are now above rates in the US.
The Corporate Commotion - A Rising Presence of ESG in Earnings Calls
Since Goldman Sachs Research's report A Revolution Rising - From low chatter to loud roar (April 2018), a virtuous cycle of ESG adoption has continued, driven by consumers, employees, regulators, corporates, NGOs and investors, leading to ESG strategy becoming a critical component of corporate & investor conversations. This report revisits our analysis using earnings transcript analysis tools to track the development of ESG themes over the past 5 years among global corporates in the S&P 500, STOXX 600 and ASX 200.
Green Hydrogen: The Next Transformational Driver of the Utilities Industry
Green hydrogen looks poised to become a once-in-a-generation opportunity: Goldman Sachs Research estimates it could give rise to a €10 trillion addressable market globally by 2050 for the Utilities industry alone.
Measuring the Reopening of America: Composite Score Declines Continue for Second Straight Week
Following our first 6 weeks in the series, GS Research continues to monitor the reopening of America, as cities and states across the U.S. begin to reopen at different paces and with different processes in place.
Carbonomics: The Rise of Clean Hydrogen
Clean hydrogen has a major role to play in the path towards net zero carbon, providing de-carbonization solutions in the most challenging parts of the Carbonomics cost curve - including long-haul transport, steel, chemicals, heating and long-term power storage.
Sustainable ESG Investing: Turning Promise into Performance
Environmental, social and governance (“ESG”) investing is at a deep level all about sustainability, yet we rarely ask the question, “How sustainable is ESG investing itself?” Here, we seek to provide a clearer sense of where ESG investing fits in the broader scope of active asset management, examine the gaps it fills and use that assessment to better structure the ESG investing processes, assess its place in asset allocation and rethink the metrics we apply to it.
Carbonomics: The Green Engine of Economic Recovery
Clean tech has a major role to play in the upcoming economic recovery. Leveraging our Carbonomics cost curve, we estimate that clean tech has the potential to drive US$1-2 tn pa of green infrastructure investments and create 15-20 mn jobs worldwide, through public-private collaboration.
Measuring the Reopening of America: Moving to a ‘2’
Following our first five weeks in the series, GS Research continues to monitor the reopening of America, as cities and states across the U.S. begin to reopen at different paces and with different processes in place.
Measuring the Reopening of America: Likely the last week at ‘1’
Following our first four weeks in the series, GS Research continues to monitor the reopening of America, as cities and states across the U.S. begin to reopen at different paces and with different processes in place.
The Great Reset: A Framework for Investing After COVID-19
Goldman Sachs Research explores topics and questions related to COVID-19 and provides a framework for the post-COVID-19 investing environment across three phases (preservation, consolidation and innovation) that capture the structural dynamics of the competitive environment.
Measuring the Reopening of America: Steady Progress Though the Scale Remains at 1
Following our first three weeks in the series, GS Research continues to monitor the reopening of America, as cities and states across the U.S. begin to reopen at different paces and with different processes in place.
Measuring the Reopening of America: Signs of Progress
Following our first two weeks in the series, GS Research continues to monitor the reopening of America, as cities and states across the U.S. begin to reopen at different paces and with different processes in place.
Measuring the Reopening of America: The GS US Reopening Scale
With cities and states across the US beginning to reopen, Goldman Sachs Research has introduced a new weekly tracker to help gauge progress in a wide range of consumer and business segments.
Measuring the Reopening of America: Introducing the Reopening Scale
With cities and states across the US beginning to reopen, Goldman Sachs Research has introduced a new weekly tracker to help gauge progress in a wide range of consumer and business segments.
Carbonomics: The Future of Energy in the Age of Climate Change
Climate change is re-shaping the energy industry through technological innovation and capital markets’ pressure.
Closing the Gender Gaps 2.0: Fresh Data Show More Work to Do
The latest gender pay gap analysis from the Global Markets Institute reveals that the unexplainable share of the wage gap has increased — a sign there’s more work to be done. Read Report
Taking the Heat: Making Cities Resilient to Climate Change
Cities will be on the frontlines of climate adaptation. Building up their resilience has the potential to drive one of the largest infrastructure build-outs in history and will likely require innovative sources of financing. Read Report