The Autonomous Vehicle Market Is Forecast to Grow and Boost Ridesharing Presence

The number of robotaxis on US roads is forecast to increase in the coming years as leading autonomous vehicle (AV) operators reduce costs and scale the business, according to Goldman Sachs Research.

At present, more than 1,500 such vehicles operate commercially in five US cities. That number is projected to rise to about 35,000 across the country in 2030. At that level, AVs would generate $7 billion in annual revenue and capture roughly 8% of the US rideshare market, up from less than 1% at present, according to Goldman Sachs Research. On a separate track, the use of autonomous trucks in commercial trucking fleets will likely grow as well, reaching about 25,000 vehicles in 2030 compared with just a handful today.

“Autonomous vehicles have arrived for both rideshare and trucking,” Goldman Sachs Research analyst Mark Delaney writes in the team’s report. “We believe the key focus for investors is now on the pace at which AVs will grow and how big the market will become, rather than if the technology works.”

What’s the outlook for autonomous vehicles and robotaxis?

Goldman Sachs Research’s forecast for robotaxis’ rideshare market implies a compound annual growth rate of about 90% from 2025 to 2030. Delaney estimates that gross margins for a vertically integrated AV operator could reach 40-50% over the next three to five years, which would push gross profit for the total US AV market to approximately $3.5 billion by 2030.

Key determinants in whether that forecast proves too ambitious or too conservative include the pace at which AV providers can scale their operations and the degree of competition. Our researchers say they will continue to monitor whether improving AI training technology and models, as well as simulation tools, will lead to an increased number of AV tech providers over time.

But there are early signs of AV scaling success. Data shows that consumers are gravitating toward AVs in select rideshare markets where they are available. The safety record of Waymo, a self-driving technology company, so far is also encouraging. The company’s studies show that its vehicles had far fewer airbag deployment crashes and injury-causing crashes as compared to human drivers.

How expensive will autonomous vehicles be?

As AVs increase their scale, their costs are coming down. Each successive generation of AVs is incorporating more purpose-built hardware. For example, one company was able to greatly decrease the number of installed cameras as it transitioned from its fifth-generation model to the sixth. Those kinds of improvements are helping to significantly reduce the average cost of an AV in the US. That said, AV costs in the US will likely remain above AV costs in China, which launched the technology earlier and where market economics are different.

Driving costs per mile are also on the decline. Enabled in part by lower hardware costs, depreciation costs per mile could drop from about 35 cents in 2025 to 15 cents in 2040 for a representative AV, our researchers estimate. Insurance costs are expected to decline from 50 cents a mile to about 23 cents over the same timeframe.

Other big savings could be realized as AV companies are able to rely on fewer remote operators, who don’t directly drive the vehicles but act as a safety net by providing virtual assistance in navigating complex or ambiguous situations. Our team predicts one remote operator could manage 35 cars by 2040, up from 10 in 2030 and only three at present.

Will drivers pick robotaxis over car ownership?

As AVs and robotaxis proliferate, will people stop buying cars? Delaney and his colleagues conclude that view is probably too negative, given that the per-mile cost of owning and operating a personal vehicle in the US is at most a little over $1, compared with more than $2 per mile for the average rideshare.

As AV costs continue to decline over the next decade or two, they believe users may choose to own an AV rather than rent one for a ride, particularly if they can sleep and engage in other activities while they’re traveling.

“Importantly, this aligns with the ambitions of several manufacturers”, they write in the report. “However, we think AV shipments in the US for the next 3-5 years will be mostly or entirely for commercial applications.”

Will trucking be taken over by AI?

Compared with the rideshare market, AV trucks are likely to ramp up more slowly over the near to medium term, according to the report. Currently, only a handful are being deployed in the US, in the Permian Basin and Texas. Our researchers expect their numbers to climb to about 25,000 in 2030, which would amount to less than 1% of the commercial trucking fleet. They estimate that the market for freight hauled by AV trucks will rise to about $18 billion that year out of a total market of about $660 billion.

While the market is expected to take time to grow, AV trucks have the potential to travel more miles and at lower costs compared with those driven by humans, given they won’t be subject to driver rest requirements. When factoring in remote operations, as well as expected savings from fuel, insurance, maintenance, and other expenses, Goldman Sachs Research forecasts that the cost per mile for an AV truck could drop from $6.15 in 2025 to $1.89 in 2030. By comparison, human-driven trucks are likely to see their costs over the same period climb from $2.61 to $2.80 per mile, driven by rising driver wages.

Furthermore, they expect the additional costs to manufacture an AV truck to decline significantly as well, with the premium dropping from $150,000 at present to $50,000 in 2030.

“We also believe that truck cost competitiveness could improve compared to other transport methods, which could be balanced by potentially higher miles per truck,” Delaney writes.

This material is provided in conjunction with the associated video/audio content for convenience.  The content of this material may differ from the associated video/audio and Goldman Sachs is not responsible for any errors in the material. The views expressed in this material are not necessarily those of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates. This material should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced, in whole or in part, or disclosed by any recipient to any other person. The information contained in this material does not constitute a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to the recipient, and Goldman Sachs is not providing any financial, economic, legal, investment, accounting, or tax advice through this program or to its recipient. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this material and any liability therefore (including in respect of direct, indirect, or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed.

© 2025 Goldman Sachs. All rights reserved.