The autonomous vehicle (AV) industry is moving from experimental concept to commercial reality, with deployments expanding across the US, China, and new international markets including parts of Europe and the Middle East, according to Goldman Sachs Research. This acceleration is being fueled by improving safety records and stronger customer demand, Mark Delaney, an analyst in Goldman Sachs Research, writes in the team’s report.

What is the forecast for the global robotaxi market? 

The financial opportunity in robotaxis has grown substantially. Goldman Sachs Research forecasts the global market to reach roughly $415 billion in 2035. Our analysts project the US robotaxi market will reach $19 billion in 2030 (up sharply from a prior estimate of $7 billion) and $48 billion in 2035.

For a vertically integrated company that both builds and operates its own robotaxi fleet, gross margins could range from 30% to 50%, implying a global gross profit pool of about $150 billion in 2035. Over the next decade, cumulative gross profits from robotaxis alone could total approximately $440 billion, according to Delaney.

Costs are expected to fall meaningfully. The team’s research models the total cost of goods sold per mile dropping below $1 in the US by 2035 for a vertically integrated AV rideshare operator. Key drivers include declining vehicle depreciation costs (from roughly $0.35 per mile in 2025 to about $0.14 in 2035), falling insurance premiums, and a sharp reduction in remote operator wages per mile as the ratio of vehicles per human supervisor improves from 6-to-1 today to 26-to-1 in 2035, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.

How much revenue will the AV sector generate by 2035? 

Looking at the full scope of the AV sector—including hardware, software, and services— Delaney estimates total industry revenue could reach approximately $2 trillion in 2035. This includes sales of robotaxis, consumer vehicles with advanced autonomy, AV trucks, and delivery robots, as well as software subscriptions and digital services.

However, not all of that $2 trillion represents new spending. A significant portion reflects existing economic activity shifting from human-operated to autonomous modes. For example, some of the activity includes things like buying a more capable car or hauling freight with an AV truck instead of a human driver. When isolating the revenue directly attributable to AI, such as virtual driver technology and consumer autonomy software subscriptions, the market is estimated at roughly $300 billion in 2035, according to Goldman Sachs Research.

The consumer software opportunity alone could exceed $50 billion by 2035 for vehicles capable of Level 3 (conditional driving automation) to Level 5 autonomy (full driving automation), Delaney estimates.

How big will the fleet of AVs be in 2035? 

Our analysts estimate that the commercial AV robotaxi fleet worldwide will surge from roughly 7,000 vehicles last year to about 1 million in 2030 and approximately 6 million in 2035. Leading AV operators plan to be operating in 15 or more cities globally by the end of 2026, with some targeting more than 20 cities.

The economic activity potentially subject to disruption in the US alone—spanning driver wages, bookings from rideshare allocated to drivers, and possible declines in vehicle sales—is estimated at roughly $440 billion.

When will autonomous trucks become cheaper than human drivers? 

Autonomous trucking is expected to represent another significant opportunity. Goldman Sachs Research forecasts the global market to hit $560 billion in 2035. In the US, AV trucking is projected to reach $16 billion in 2030 and $105 billion in 2035.

The economics are shifting quickly. The additional upfront cost to equip a truck with autonomous technology in the US is currently about $125,000 to $150,000, but this premium is expected to fall to roughly $35,000 to $40,000 in 2035 as hardware costs improve and production scales up.

The all-in cost per mile (excluding corporate operating expenses) for an AV truck in the US is projected to drop from approximately $8.56 in 2025 to about $2.03 in 2035. Meanwhile, the comparable cost for a human-driven truck is expected to rise from $2.55 to $2.84 over the same period, driven partly by increasing driver wages. Delaney projects that AV trucking will become cost-competitive with human-operated trucks in 2028 in the US.

AV trucks also have a key advantage: They are not subject to the hours-of-service limits that restrict human drivers to 11 hours of driving per day in the US. AV trucks could cover more miles and serve routes that would be impractical for single human drivers, Goldman Sachs Research notes.

Will AVs disrupt personal car ownership? 

One of the most-debated questions is whether widespread AV adoption will dramatically reduce the number of personally owned vehicles. Delaney's base case view is that this concern is overstated, at least for the next decade. The current cost of owning and operating a personal vehicle in the US ranges from $0.77 to $1.00 per mile, which remains well below the more-than-$2 per mile cost of rideshare services today.

Even as AV ride costs fall—potentially to $1 or less per mile over the long term—the hardware enabling those economics would be also affordable enough for consumers to own personally. If autonomous vehicles eventually allow passengers to sleep during travel, many people may prefer ownership, possibly with a monthly subscription for remote driving assistance, Goldman Sachs Research suggests.

The US has roughly 300 million vehicles in operation. With an estimated 3 million AVs on US roads in 2035, the near-term impact on fleet size appears negligible (when also including estimates for potentially increased utilization), according to Goldman Sachs Research’s base-case forecast. However, in a more extreme scenario where all miles travelled shift to shared autonomous vehicles, annual US vehicle sales could settle in the range of 10 to 13 million units—down from the historical average of about 16 million.

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