Goldman Sachs Research economists expect sturdy global growth of 2.8% in 2026, versus a consensus forecast of 2.5%. The US is likely to outperform substantially (2.6% vs. 2.0%) because of reduced tariff drag, tax cuts, and easier financial conditions. 

Sturdy global growth coupled with non-recessionary Fed cuts should be positive for global equities, but tensions with 'hot valuations' may increase volatility.

Goldman Sachs Research analysts remain constructive on equities for 2026 as earnings continue to grow, but forecast lower index returns than in 2025, amid a broadening bull market.

The US-China AI and geopolitical power race and global energy supply waves drive our analysts' key convictions. Goldman Sachs Research's cyclical macro base case of sturdy global GDP growth and 50 basis points of Fed rate cuts in 2026 is again supportive of top-down commodity returns. 

Goldman Sachs Research expects another mixed year for the UK economy in 2026, characterised by trend-like growth and further increases in unemployment, but also materially lower inflation and three more Bank Rate cuts to 3%.

Goldman Sachs Research expects 2026 to be a better year for the euro area economy than 2025 given prospects for cyclical improvement. That said, our economists only look for a small growth improvement as Europe faces several structural headwinds at home and abroad.

The Japanese economy is forecast by Goldman Sachs Research to have steady growth in 2026, led by domestic demand. Our economists expect the Japanese economy to expand 0.8% in 2026.