Goldman Sachs economists and strategists share insights on macro trends shaping the global economy.
The U.S. economy has shown signs of surprising resilience this year, despite concerns over inflation, recession and the Fed’s path from here. In the latest episode of Goldman Sachs Exchanges, David Mericle, chief U.S. economist in Goldman Sachs Research, explains why he’s generally optimistic that the U.S. economy can avoid a recession and achieve a soft landing.
The probability of a U.S. recession in the coming year has declined, as the risk of a disruptive debt-ceiling fight has disappeared and stress in the banking sector appears to be only a modest drag on the economy, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
How are countries and companies reshaping their supply chains for a new era of global trade? In this episode, Andrew Tilton, chief Asia Pacific economist in Goldman Sachs Research, Luke Barrs from the Fundamental Equity business in Asset Management, and Richard Hill, chairman of the board at Marvell Technology, discuss the macro pressures and geopolitics that are affecting global supply chains, as well as the impact on the investment landscape.
As the global economic backdrop continues to improve, is it time to invest in emerging markets? In the latest episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, Kay Haigh, co-CIO of Fixed Income, and Hiren Dasani, co-head of emerging markets equity, within Goldman Sachs Asset & Wealth Management, discuss the recent rally in emerging markets and the outlook for 2023.
In a special episode of the Exchanges at Goldman Sachs podcast, Goldman Sachs Chairman and CEO David Solomon shares his views on the macroeconomic environment — including his concern that inflation is likely to be “stickier” and harder to manage — as well as what’s on the minds of clients and the CEOs he meets with.
A wide range of investors think activity in equity capital markets will double in 2023 from the year before, when markets were beset by volatility, according to Goldman Sachs’ Annual Equity Capital Markets Investor Survey.
China’s reopening from Covid-19 restrictions will not only accelerate the country’s economic recovery, but it will also boost global economic growth, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
The political standoff over raising the U.S. federal debt limit will likely be resolved—but it’s still likely to create uncertainty for financial markets if history is repeated.
The U.S. dollar may have soared against other major currencies in 2022, but there are growing signs that the greenback is past its peak, according to Kamakshya Trivedi, the head of currencies, interest rates and emerging markets strategy in Goldman Sachs Research.
The French economy was able to keep growing for a large part of 2022 despite a number of challenges. A report from Goldman Sachs Research predicts the country will experience a period of weakness but narrowly avert a recession.
What are the long-term trends shaping the global economy? What countries are likely to power global growth in the decades to come? In the latest episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, Kevin Daly, co-head of the economics team covering Central & Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa, discusses the team's long-term projections and the continued convergence between emerging and developed market economies.
2022 was a tumultuous year. Equity markets dropped precipitously, interest rates rose at the fastest pace in decades and commodity prices gyrated in response to high inflation and geopolitical tensions. The Investment Strategy Group within Goldman Sachs Wealth Management expects 2023 to be less turbulent for markets, with inflation moderating and major central banks approaching the end of their tightening cycles. Yet there is still a fog of uncertainty facing investors.
What’s in store for economies and markets in 2023? In this episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, head of Goldman Sachs Research and the firm’s chief economist, and Dominic Wilson, Senior Advisor in the Global Markets Research Group, explain why they believe the U.S. can avoid a recession and how the economic landscape is improving in Europe and China in 2023.
After soaring to record levels in 2021, the global M&A market slowed in 2022 against a challenging economic environment. So what can we expect in 2023? In the latest episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, Stephan Feldgoise and Mark Sorrell, the co-heads of the Global Mergers and Acquisitions business in Goldman Sachs Investment Banking, discuss the drivers behind 2022’s activity and what to expect in the year ahead.
Just as commodity markets have been dominated by the dollar in 2022, Goldman Sachs Commodities analysts expect them to be shaped by underinvestment in 2023.
Banks are often seen as a leading indicator for the economy—so what are they telling us now about the picture in the US? GS Research’s Richard Ramsden and Alex Blostein discuss the broader sector in the latest episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, also sharing the themes and sentiment they took away from the recent GS US Financial Services Conference.
What makes the US likely to avoid recession in 2023? Our Chief Economist Jan Hatzius says there are two opposing forces at play, one positive and one negative – and the positive one should prove stronger.
Market volatility, inflation and positive correlations across assets have put a question mark on the diversification benefits of multi-asset portfolios. In the latest episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, Goldman Sachs Research’s Christian Mueller-Glissmann, who heads asset allocation research, breaks down what investors should keep in mind when building portfolios in 2023.
The bear market in stock markets is forecast to intensify before giving way to more hopeful signals later in 2023, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
“Put simply, zero earnings growth will drive zero appreciation in the stock market,” David Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist, wrote in the team’s 2023 Outlook.
The key macroeconomic question of the year has been whether inflationary overheating can be reversed without a recession. Analysis from Goldman Sachs Research economists suggests that the answer is yes—an extended period of below-potential growth can gradually reverse labor market overheating and bring down wage growth and ultimately inflation, providing a feasible if challenging path to a soft landing.
While our Goldman Sachs Research economists expect Japan’s real GDP growth to slow to 1.3% in 2023, from 1.5% in 2022, they look for growth to continue to outpace its potential. Consumption is likely to directly benefit from economic reopening, and they also expect capex to remain firm on the back of pent-up demand, labor shortages due both to demographics and reopening, and supply chain rebuilding.
Economic growth is likely to start 2023 on the weak side across most of the Asia-Pacific, according to Goldman Sachs Research economists, as a fading reopening boost, slowing global manufacturing cycle, and past monetary tightening weigh on activity. As these headwinds fade and China’s reopening gets underway, they expect growth to reaccelerate. While most of our economists’ GDP forecasts are a little below consensus for 2023 as a whole, they are more positive on second-half growth, particularly in China.
After a very challenging 2022, Goldman Sachs Research economists expect China GDP growth to accelerate from 3.0% this year to 4.5% next year on the back of China’s potential exit from its zero-Covid policy, which they assume will start shortly after the “Two Sessions” in March. China’s reopening would imply a strong consumption rebound, firming core inflation, and gradually normalizing cyclical policies in 2023.
Goldmans Sachs Research economists maintain their long-held view that the energy crisis will push the European economy into recession this winter, as surveys and production data point to a sizeable slowing in energy-intensive industries, and high inflation will reduce real household incomes. But they now see a shallower recession as the hard data have remained surprisingly resilient, the rebalancing of the gas market has reduced the risk of energy rationing and governments have provided significant fiscal support.
The U.S. will probably stick a soft landing next year: the world’s largest economy is forecast to narrowly avoid a recession as inflation fades and unemployment nudges up slightly, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
Global growth slowed through 2022 on a diminishing reopening boost, fiscal and monetary tightening, China’s Covid restrictions and property slump, and the Russia-Ukraine war. Goldman Sachs Research analysts expect global growth of just 1.8% in 2023, as US resilience contrasts with a European recession and a bumpy reopening in China.
Plentiful natural gas supplies and mild weather across Europe are creating optimism that the continent may be able to avoid shortages and blackouts this winter. But is that optimism premature? In this episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, Goldman Sachs Research’s Samantha Dart, a senior energy strategist who focuses on the natural gas markets, and Jari Stehn, our chief European economist, discuss the state of Europe’s energy crisis and its impact on the broader European economy.
The Federal Reserve is tapping the brakes on U.S. economic growth, which could help bring down inflation and temper the most overheated job market in postwar American history, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
Can the Federal Reserve slow the U.S. economy enough to bring down inflation without causing a recession? It’s a delicate balance, but there are several reasons that it could be more achievable than in the past, according to economists at Goldman Sachs.
As 2022 continues to unfold, two major growth risks loom large against a backdrop of alarmingly high inflation—the prospect of a Fed policy mistake, and of a sizable disruption in the Euro area's energy flows. How policymakers navigate these risks, and their growth and market consequences, are Top of Mind.
In this episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, Jeffrey Currie, global head of Commodities Research in Goldman Sachs Research, discusses why he believes commodities are entering a supercycle and how the current geopolitical landscape is shaping commodity markets.
Following the strong CPI print on February 10th, Goldman Sachs Research is raising their Fed forecast to include seven consecutive 25bp rate hikes at each of the remaining FOMC meetings in 2022 (vs. five hikes in 2022 previously). They continue to expect the FOMC to hike three more times at a gradual once-per-quarter pace in 2023Q1-Q3 and to reach the same terminal rate of 2.5-2.75%, but earlier.
In this episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, Douglas Yearley, Chairman and CEO of Toll Brothers, and Terry Hagerty, Goldman Sachs’ co-head of Homebuilding and Building Products, discuss the outlook for the housing and home building market in 2022.
In this episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, head of the Investment Strategy Group and chief investment officer for the Consumer and Wealth Management Division discusses the investment themes outlined in ISG’s 14th annual investment outlook, Outlook 2022: Piloting Through, and explains why investors should continue to stay invested.
In the latest episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, Jeffrey Shaman, Director of the Climate and Health Program at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health, and Dr. Eric Topol, Founder and Director of the Scripps Translational Science Institute, discuss the rapid spread of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 and the potential shift to an endemic phase of the pandemic in 2022.
While the lightning spread of the Omicron virus variant has led to a record surge in cases globally, its more transmissible but milder nature has also raised the question of whether it’s ushering in a more manageable, endemic phase of the virus in 2022.
Will Congress pass any reconciliation package this year? Will Democrats maintain control of Congress after the November midterm elections? Goldman Sachs Research’s economists offer insight into these questions and more.
Although the renewed surge in Covid infections is likely to weigh on services activity over the winter, Goldman Sachs Research expects a more manageable hit to European economic activity than last year.
In the latest episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, Goldman Sachs Chairman and CEO David Solomon shares his thoughts on the year ahead and what he expects for the global economy, markets and corporate activity.
In 2021, the US economy showed its resilience and US equities outperformed once again, supporting the Investment Strategy Group’s long-held tenets of US Preeminence and Staying Invested. While risks have risen, we expect a favorable economic backdrop to continue to support equities this year.
Chief Economist Jan Hatzius discusses the Omicron variant's effect on the economic outlook for 2022, and how persistent inflationary pressures could modify the Fed’s schedule for hikes and balance sheet normalization.
The record wave of M&A activity that we witnessed in 2021 is showing no signs of slowing as we turn the page on a new year. Goldman Sachs’ Stephan Feldgoise and Mark Sorrell, co-heads of the global mergers and acquisition business in the Investment Banking Division, explain the drivers behind the deal-making activity and the outlook for 2022.
Global economies and markets are facing a more complicated landscape amid rising rates, slowing growth and shifting monetary and fiscal policies. Goldman Sachs’ Jan Hatzius and Dominic Wilson examine what’s in store for 2022.
As U.S. inflation hits 30+ year highs, experts debate whether the “temporary” pandemic-related inflationary pressures could prove persistent. In the latest Exchanges at Goldman Sachs episode, Goldman Sachs’ Allison Nathan speaks with Mohamed El-Erian, President of Queens’ College, Cambridge University, and Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz, and Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs’ Chief Economist and head of Goldman Sachs Research, for their views on where inflation goes from here—and what that means for the economy, monetary policy, interest rates and assets.