Goldman Sachs Research analysts introduce their GCC Capex Wave Series, where they map out the region’s investments across sectors. They start with Saudi Arabia, the GCC’s largest economy.
The probability of a U.S. recession in the coming year has declined, as recent economic data signal that bringing inflation down to an acceptable level will not require a downturn, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
As India’s population of 1.4 billion people becomes the world’s largest, its GDP is forecast to expand dramatically. Goldman Sachs Research projects India will have the world’s second-largest economy by 2075.
At the start of the year, Asset & Wealth Management Investment Strategy Group (ISG) at Goldman Sachs laid out a base case for the S&P 500 to finish 2023 with a total return in low double digits at the midpoint of its 4,200 to 4,300 target range. Having reached that mark with more than half the year left to go, ISG believes the rally may have more room to run.
As the U.K. contends with one of the highest inflation rates among advanced economies, there are signs that a drop in immigration from the Continent has contributed to an overheated job market as well as higher inflation, according to Goldman Sachs Research. And while overall immigration has increased since Britons voted to leave the EU, more people are coming to the U.K. from outside of Europe, and many are migrating for humanitarian reasons and to study.
The probability of a U.S. recession in the coming year has declined, as the risk of a disruptive debt-ceiling fight has disappeared and stress in the banking sector appears to be only a modest drag on the economy, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
Discussing the aftermath of the debt ceiling deal, the Fed’s next move and U.S. stock market performance this year, Beth Hammack, co-head of the Global Financing Group in Goldman Sachs’ Global Banking & Markets, joins our latest episode of The Markets, a new podcast from Goldman Sachs Exchanges.
In this episode, Stephen Kaplan, associate professor at George Washington University, Alec Phillips, Goldman Sachs Research’s chief political economist, and David Beers, former head of sovereign credit ratings at S&P, who oversaw the rating agency’s U.S. credit rating downgrade in 2011, dig into the history and mechanics of the U.S. debt limit and explore whether the repeated brinkmanship around raising the debt limit could undermine the value of U.S. assets.
Commercial real estate – and office buildings in particular – are going through a challenging transition: Climbing interest rates are rippling through the sector at the same time occupants are seeking out newer, more sustainable architecture in new parts of the country.
As politicians in Washington negotiate over a deal on the debt limit, Treasury officials may soon have to clear another hurdle: issuing around $1 trillion of debt in about six months, according to estimates from the Short-Term Interest Rates Trading desk at Goldman Sachs.
There are growing signs that overheated job markets in the U.S. and other developed economies are cooling, according to Goldman Sachs Research. The surprise is that labor markets are rebalancing, at least so far, without a spike in unemployment or setting off a recession.
Greece is on the cusp of regaining investment grade status more than 12 years after losing that important credit rating, marking a sharp reversal for an economy that was roiled during the euro area’s sovereign debt crisis.
The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) will spur about $3 trillion investment in renewable energy technology that could double the amount of energy produced by the shale revolution 15 years ago, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
Stress in U.S. banking, which has been concentrated among small and midsize lenders, is likely to hit smaller American businesses the hardest, according to Goldman Sachs Research. The financial jitters that started with Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse may also have a bigger impact outside of large cities.
As funding pours into quantum computing, investors are focused on the potential for this technology to address scientific, business and security problems beyond the reach of today’s conventional computers. There are signs that dramatic impacts could come in the not-too-distant future, according to industry executives who spoke at the Goldman Sachs 2023 Disruptive Technology Symposium.
The turbulence among smaller banks in the U.S. is set to slow the economy, raising the likelihood of a recession. But stock and bond markets were offering different signals about whether the U.S. is headed for a hard landing earlier this week, according to Brett Nelson, head of tactical asset allocation for the Asset & Wealth Management Investment Strategy Group (ISG) at Goldman Sachs.
After 10 consecutive interest rate hikes, the Bank of England is balancing the need to control inflation with the risk of increasing rates too far. The policy tightening is likely to weigh heavily on growth via the U.K. housing market, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
Bond markets have been on a wild ride. After a rally heading into the year, yields have recently risen sharply on better growth and sticky inflation data. The bond story has also been joined by a character not seen in many years: Japan. What lies ahead for global bond markets—and especially JGBs given the impending shift in BoJ leadership—and the implications for other assets and investors’ portfolios is Top of Mind.
The reopening of China and an economic recovery in Korea could shift the center of gravity in Asian stock markets to the north, away from India and ASEAN countries, according to a Goldman Sachs Research report.
China’s reopening from Covid-19 restrictions will not only accelerate the country’s economic recovery, but it will also boost global economic growth, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
The political standoff over raising the U.S. federal debt limit will likely be resolved—but it’s still likely to create uncertainty for financial markets if history is repeated.
A core pillar of Japan’s ultra-easy monetary policy – known as yield curve control (YCC) – has come under increasing market skepticism in recent months, raising the possibility that the country could eventually abolish it altogether, according to strategists within Goldman Sachs’ Global Banking & Markets.
As the transition to a low-carbon future makes batteries critically important, countries are making significant headway in reducing China’s dominance over the supply chain, according to a new Goldman Sachs Research report.
Two decades since Goldman Sachs Research first set out long-term growth projections for the BRICs economies, GS Research economists update and expand those projections to cover 104 countries out to 2075 and identify four major themes for the global economy.
The world’s fastest years of economic growth are likely already behind it — expansion is slowing as population growth weakens, according to Goldman Sachs Research. But emerging economies, and powerhouses in Asia in particular, are forecast to keep catching up to richer countries.
In a Q&A, Alberto Ramos, head of the Latin America Economic Research team in Global Investment Research, examines Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s presidential-election victory in Brazil and its implications for that country’s economy, fiscal outlook, and investment environment.
Plentiful natural gas supplies and mild weather across Europe are creating optimism that the continent may be able to avoid shortages and blackouts this winter. But is that optimism premature? In this episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, Goldman Sachs Research’s Samantha Dart, a senior energy strategist who focuses on the natural gas markets, and Jari Stehn, our chief European economist, discuss the state of Europe’s energy crisis and its impact on the broader European economy.
As the voting continues from the U.S. midterm elections, the results so far indicate a status quo in country’s political divisions. But what does a divided Congress mean for policy, markets and economic growth? In this episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, Goldman Sachs Research’s Alec Phillips and the Office of Government Affairs’ Joe Wall analyze the results of the U.S. midterm elections and the impact for policy and economic growth.
GS SUSTAIN: Green Capex - Accelerating the Energy Transition - Stimulating Capital and Return on Capital
In this report, Goldman Sachs Research highlights where capital is needed, what investors are rewarding and strategies/vehicles to stimulate investment with a case study on China decarbonization strategies. To stimulate greater capital towards the Energy Transition and broader sustainable development goals, GS Research analysts believe stakeholders such as investors, managements and policymakers should deploy the three Cs: collaboration, comprehensive focus, and corporate returns clarity.
GS SUSTAIN: Green Capex - US Inflation Reduction Act - What's Transformational, What's Supportive, What's Underappreciated
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) — signed into law by President Biden on August 16 — provides about $386 billion in energy and climate spending over 10 years, with related tax incentives up about $265 billion from the prior run rate. With annual investment needed globally this decade to be on path for Net Zero by 2050 +$1.8 trillion vs. the annual run rate in 2016-20, the IRA is helpful but not an immediate panacea to put the world on track. Goldman Sachs Research Analysts see the IRA as a catalyst to accelerate investment in longer-term carbon capture utilization and storage projects. GS Research Analysts also see the IRA as supportive for solar, electric vehicles, residential clean energy and nuclear energy.
As the holiday shopping season kicks off — against a backdrop of high inflation and slowing economic growth — will consumers continue to remain a bright spot in the U.S. economy? In this episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, Goldman Sachs Research’s David Mericle, chief U.S. economist, Kate McShane, U.S. retail analyst, and Eric Sheridan, U.S. internet sector analyst, discuss the health of the consumer and the implications for economic growth.
After weeks of financial turmoil, the U.K. is expected to slide into a deeper recession than previously forecast, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
While the recently passed CHIPS Act might serve as a valuable hedge against future semiconductor shortages in the US, it’s not likely to make a dent in supplanting Asia’s dominance in the sector, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
It’s been a bleak year for the stock market which, despite some short-term rallies, is still firmly entrenched in bear market territory. So where do we go from here? In the latest episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, chief US equity strategist in Goldman Sachs Research, discusses the outlook for US equities and the sectors and styles still working in today’s environment.
The U.K. currency, already buffeted by an energy price shock, traded at a record low against the dollar after the government unveiled a spending plan that some fear could spark higher inflation.
As property developers run out of funding to finish properties, a growing number of buyers in China have stopped making mortgage payments on incomplete homes. The boycotts are a sign of the distress in China’s property market as the government seeks to rebalance the sector.
The Asian American community has seen marked success in education, income and innovation but remains underrepresented in managerial and executive positions, according to new research from Goldman Sachs Research. In the latest episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, Goldman Sachs Research’s Hui Shan, chief China economist, and Daan Struyven, senior global economist, discuss the contributions and challenges of the Asian communities in the U.S. and countries across the globe — and the role that policymaking can play in creating a more equitable future.
How is one of the most senior dealmakers in Europe navigating inflationary pressures? In this episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs: Great Investors, Tara Davies, partner, global head of Core Infrastructure and co-head of European Infrastructure at KKR, talks with Goldman Sachs’ Alison Mass, chairman of the Investment Banking Division, about the European infrastructure space and the inflation pass-through mechanic in infrastructure assets.
How is the leader of the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund navigating slowing economic growth, rising inflation and geopolitical conflicts? In this episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs: Great Investors, Nicolai Tangen, chief executive officer of Norges Bank Investment Management, talks with Goldman Sachs’ Katie Koch, chief investment officer of Public Equity in the Asset Management Division, about the fund’s mission and why he expects the investing environment to be more difficult.
In this episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs: Great Investors, Joe Bae, Co-CEO of KKR, shares his thoughts with Goldman Sachs’ Alison Mass, chairman of the Investment Banking Division, about the evolution of the private equity industry, what’s top of mind for CEOs and how the firm is navigating a challenging macro environment.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has heightened the uncertainty over food supply, a global market that was already feeling the effects of COVID-19 and the ongoing impact of climate change. With the help of Goldman Sachs Research, we took a closer look at the regions most affected by surging food prices and the increasing cost of agricultural commodities and products.
Like many countries, Brazil faces a challenging mix of slowing economic growth and soaring inflation. But what makes Latin America’s largest economy different from other nations is that its central bank has lifted its benchmark rate 10-straight times to one of the highest policy rates in the world.
How is Europe weaning itself from Russian oil and gas? In this episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, Goldman Sachs Research’s Samantha Dart, senior energy strategist on the commodities team, Alberto Gandolfi, head of the European Utilities Research team, and Michele Della Vigna, head of Natural Resources Research in EMEA, explain the alternatives to — and timing of — Europe’s independence from Russian resources and how these shifts are reshaping the global energy markets.
In this episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, Goldman Sachs Research’s Daan Struyven, senior global economist, Peter Oppenheimer, chief global equity strategist, and Kamakshya Trivedi, co-head of Global Foreign Exchange, Interest Rates and Emerging Markets Strategy Research, discuss the implications of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on global economies, equities and emerging markets.
The increased need for greater transparency and tightened definitions for sustainable investment products is accelerating ESG regulation throughout the Asia Pacific region. These companion reports from the Goldman Sachs Research GS SUSTAIN team explore the material ESG regulations emerging across the region and highlight the connection between regulation and expanding green valuation premia.
The number of “unicorns” has surged in India in recent years, enabled by the rise of the internet ecosystem, availability of private capital and a favorable regulatory environment. Goldman Sachs Research expects the IPO pipeline to remain robust over the next 12-24 months, with market cap increasing from US$3.5tn currently to over US$5tn by 2024, making India the 5th largest market by capitalization.
Amid concerns that Europe and China are facing economic and demographic headwinds similar to those responsible for Japan’s decades-long period of anemic growth, we sat down with Naohiko Baba, Goldman Sachs Research’s chief economist for Japan, to discuss how Japan is coping with its challenges and takeaways for other countries that are at risk of ‘Japanification.’
Europe’s slow economic growth and low inflation have led many to wonder if the region is at risk of “Japanification.” In this episode of The Long & Short of It, Sharon Bell of Goldman Sachs Research explains some of the lessons investors can take from Japan’s recent past to better understand Europe’s future. Watch Video
Despite weaknesses in South Africa’s economy, improving business confidence and the promise of structural reforms create the potential for higher economic growth rates going forward, according to Goldman Sachs’ Colin Coleman, the firm’s sub-Saharan Africa head, and Kunal Shah and Ryad Yousuf, who are leading the firm’s market-making expansion into South Africa. We talked with them about the evolving macroeconomic and political landscape in South Africa, as well as the opportunities and challenges for investors. Learn More
In 1999, Goldman Sachs Research Strategist Kathy Matsui published a seminal research report on “Womenomics,” exploring how much Japan’s GDP could grow if more women were in the labor force. Now 20 years later, Matsui reflects on the progress that’s been made and where the challenges remain. Watch Video
Katie Koch of Goldman Sachs Asset Management discusses the positive outlook for emerging markets with India expected to be a particularly powerful engine of growth. Watch Video