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The fixed-income selloff: A new supply-demand dynamic?
10-year treasury yields hit a high not seen in fifteen years. Paula Hendrickson on Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets’ Interest Rate Product Sales team joins to discuss what this means for markets.
Bond markets are grappling with a growing pile of government debt
Government debt of the world’s developed economies has soared since the financial crisis and continues to grow. As central banks drive up interest rates to contend with a spike in inflation, those debt burdens are an increasing source of concern that could ripple through the bond market, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
Why the yield curve isn’t signalling recession
The yield curve — the difference between yields of 10- and two-year US Treasuries — has long been seen as a predictor of recession: When investors are fearful, they tend to buy up 10-year Treasuries, causing the yield to fall below the interest rate of shorter-term securities.
What we’re hearing from some of the world’s largest investors now
Why are investors increasingly expecting a soft landing as inflation worries persist? Oscar Ostund, global head of content strategy, market analytics & data science for Marquee in Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets, discusses the takeaways from the latest QuickPoll survey of 1,000 institutional investors.
Emerging market equities poised to overtake developed market equities
Developed market equities have long dominated global equity markets, but that’s set to change in the coming decades. Kevin Daly, co-head of CEEMEA Economics in Goldman Sachs Research, explains why EM capital markets are likely to rise significantly.
A conversation with Renaissance Technologies CEO Peter Brown
In this special episode of Goldman Sachs Exchanges: Great Investors, Peter Brown, CEO of Renaissance Technologies, talks about his career and building the hedge fund company. He also recounts how the firm navigated market crises such as the “quant quake” and the Global Financial Crisis, and describes how computer models and algorithms have long played a role in Renaissance’s growth.
Normalizing inflation: are ‘hard yards’ ahead?
What will it take for US inflation to normalize? Ashok Varadhan, co-head of Global Banking & Markets at Goldman Sachs, discusses US interest rates, the growth in private credit, and why the final push to a target rate might be a ‘game of inches.’
The Fed is likely finished hiking rates as the US avoids recession
Worries that rising inflation will force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates later this year appear to be fading amid encouraging signs in the jobs market. Goldman Sachs Research’s Chief U.S. Economist David Mericle shares his views on the U.S. economy, inflation, and the Fed’s path from here.
How much does a US government shutdown cost the economy?
As discussions in Washington over federal spending continue, the potential for a government shutdown is growing. A shutdown would probably have a modest effect on the economy, which may also make a sustained impasse over spending more likely, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
Why the US money supply is shrinking for the first time in 74 years
The U.S. money supply is shrinking for the first time since 1949, as savings deposits decline and the Federal Reserve shrinks its $8 trillion balance sheet. The drop stems mostly from changes in Fed policy and rising interest rates, but it says little about the prospects for inflation or the likelihood of recession, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
Are higher rates the new normal?
Markets are currently “priced for perfection,” according to some market observers. What factors into that analysis, and what might be missing? Greg Tuorto, a portfolio manager on the fundamental equity team in Goldman Sachs Asset Management, discusses the latest from the Fed, China’s economy, and the new normal of higher rates.
BlackRock’s Rick Rieder on his career, the markets, and investing in the current environment
As the Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income for BlackRock, Rick Rieder and his team are responsible for about $2.4 trillion of assets. In this episode of Goldman Sachs Exchanges: Great Investors, Rieder shares his views on the markets, the strength of the U.S. economy, and where he’s finding investment opportunities.
Investors grow bullish despite mixed economic data
There are signs investors are increasingly bullish, as the U.S. economy appears headed for a soft landing and inflation cools. However markets are already priced for an improving outlook for growth, suggesting some investors could be in for disappointment in the coming months, says Christian Mueller-Glissmann, head of asset allocation research within portfolio strategy at Goldman Sachs Research.
Why markets are in a period of 'normalization, not nirvana'
US credit was downgraded this week and the latest JOLTS numbers came in. Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo, deputy chief investment officer of multi-asset solutions in Asset & Wealth Management, talks about the impact in our latest episode of Exchanges: The Markets.
Equities are in the ‘optimism’ phase of the stock market cycle
As interest rates climb and inflation shows signs of cooling — where are stocks in the market cycle? Equities markets usually have four phases, and right now stocks are in the “optimism” stage, according to our Chief Global Equity Market Strategist Peter Oppenheimer. He expects relatively low returns from here as stocks trade in a wide range.
Are investors betting the worst is over for US inflation?
How does U.S. inflation stack up against other big economies and what does that mean for financial markets? Gurpreet Gill, macro strategist in the fixed income group in Goldman Sachs Asset Management, breaks down the differences across countries on our latest episode of The Markets, a new weekly podcast from Goldman Sachs Exchanges.
Will a wave of defaults hit US high-yield debt?
Will rising rates cause a wave of defaults in the U.S. high-yield bond market? Gurpreet Gill, macro strategist for fixed income and liquidity solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, separates the signal from the noise.
How institutional investors are navigating market crosscurrents
How are large investors navigating market crosscurrents? Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s Elizabeth Burton, client investment strategist in the Client Solutions Group, joins our latest episode of, The Markets, a new weekly podcast from Goldman Sachs Exchanges, to explain how institutional investors are allocating assets.
Why global equities are poised for “fat and flat” returns
Global equity markets have performed relatively well in the first half of the year, but can this performance last? Goldman Sachs Research’s Peter Oppenheimer, chief global equity strategist and head of macro research in Europe, explains why equity returns are likely to remain relatively flat from here.
Are there green shoots in the IPO market?
Discussing how companies are issuing new stock this year, the market for IPOs, and the other ways corporations are accessing capital in a high-rate environment, Lizzie Reed, global head of the Equity Syndicate Desk in Goldman Sachs Investment Banking, joins our latest episode of, The Markets, a new weekly podcast from Goldman Sachs Exchanges.
Why US stocks may rally more than expected this year
At the start of the year, Asset & Wealth Management Investment Strategy Group (ISG) at Goldman Sachs laid out a base case for the S&P 500 to finish 2023 with a total return in low double digits at the midpoint of its 4,200 to 4,300 target range. Having reached that mark with more than half the year left to go, ISG believes the rally may have more room to run.
Emerging stock markets projected to overtake the US by 2030
The stock market capitalization of emerging markets is forecast to eclipse that of the U.S. and other developed markets in the coming years, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
What the Fed’s hawkish pause means for markets
Breaking down the latest decisions from the Fed and the ECB, as well as how corporates are navigating the current economic climate, Jonathan Fine, head of Investment Grade Syndicate in the Americas in Goldman Sachs' Global Banking & Markets, joins our latest episode of The Markets, a new weekly podcast from Goldman Sachs Exchanges.
Why the AI-driven tech rally has legs
Investor enthusiasm for artificial intelligence has driven equity markets higher, but does the current rally have legs? In this week’s Markets podcast from Goldman Sachs Exchanges, Sung Cho, co-head of Tech Investing for Fundamental Equity in Goldman Sachs Asset Management, explains the factors and outlook for the sector.
European stocks may give US equities a run for their money
Even as some European stocks give U.S. equities a run for their money this year, investors still give the region’s companies a lower valuation than their counterparts across the Atlantic. There are signs, however, that could change, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
What’s next for U.S. Treasuries
Discussing the aftermath of the debt ceiling deal, the Fed’s next move and U.S. stock market performance this year, Beth Hammack, co-head of the Global Financing Group in Goldman Sachs’ Global Banking & Markets, joins our latest episode of The Markets, a new podcast from Goldman Sachs Exchanges.
Are markets pricing in the potential of a default?
Debt ceiling discussions are the primary focus of markets this week but equity and bond markets are reacting in very different ways, explains Candice Tse from Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Strategic Advisory Solutions, on The Markets podcast.
As interest rates climb, the global housing market is surprisingly stable
The global housing market seems to be stabilizing faster than expected despite months of rising mortgage rates, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
Investing During Times of Market Stress
In this episode, Goldman Sachs Research’s Christian Mueller-Glissmann, who heads asset allocation research within portfolio strategy, explains how recent market stresses are affecting portfolio diversification strategies.
Private credit may outperform public bonds as defaults rise
The opportunities for private credit may be expanding even as financial markets grow more turbulent and uncertain, according to Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM).
Is Big Tech Back?
After a sharply disappointing performance in 2022, tech stocks are roaring back. But is the latest revival just a short-term blip? Or is there a new growth phase ahead for the tech sector? In this episode, Ben Snider, a senior strategist in Goldman Sachs Research, and Peter Callahan, who covers the tech sector for Global Banking & Markets, break down big tech earnings, new developments like generative AI, and the risks investors are focused on.
Volatility, Earnings, and European Equities
Discussing US equity volatility, the takeaways from US and European earnings, and what to expect in next week’s Fed and ECB meetings, Sharon Bell, Goldman Sachs Research’s senior strategist on the European Portfolio Strategy team, joins our latest episode of The Markets, a new weekly podcast from Goldman Sachs Exchanges.
Low Stock Market Volatility Masks ‘Pain Under the Surface’
Even as traders grapple with a slowing economy, banking turmoil and geopolitical worries, stock market volatility in the U.S. is hovering around its lowest level in more than 20 months. With so much uncertainty and turbulence, why have price swings in the equity market been so subdued?
Smaller US Businesses and Towns are Likely to Be Hit Hardest by Bank Turmoil
Stress in U.S. banking, which has been concentrated among small and midsize lenders, is likely to hit smaller American businesses the hardest, according to Goldman Sachs Research. The financial jitters that started with Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse may also have a bigger impact outside of large cities.
All about bank(panic)s and the implications for policy
The recent banking turmoil in the U.S. and Europe triggered by the failure of Silicon Valley Bank — the largest bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis — seems to have abated, but questions remain about whether banking stress could resurge and what policymakers can do to prevent that. In the latest episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, which is based on Goldman Sachs Research’s Top of Mind report, All about bank(panic)s, former policymakers Daniel Tarullo and Thomas Hoenig, and Yale’s Gary Gorton, explain the drivers behind the recent crisis, the potential for it to repeat, and what rules and regulations might help prevent that.
All about bank(panic)s
The recent banking turmoil in the US and Europe seems to have calmed, but whether this stress will resurge, and its implications for growth, monetary policy, and markets—let alone the banking industry itself—is Top of Mind.
GS SUSTAIN: Biodiversity – TNFD releases recommended disclosure metrics
In this report, Goldman Sachs Research analysts break down changes to the Taskforce on Nature-Related Financial Disclosures (TNFD) framework and the new metric disclosure recommendations, discuss data availability and potential implications for corporate reporting, and highlight takeaways on how this development may influence the regulatory environment and investing in Biodiversity moving forward.
US Households Have Found There is an Alternative to Stocks
The flow of money in the U.S. into bond and money-market funds accelerated over the last two weeks amid jitters about the banking sector. The surge added to the shift in flows this year from stocks to lower-risk assets that offer more yield, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
Are Bonds a Good Investment?
When shock rippled through the U.S. banking system this month, bonds again proved themselves to investors, according to Ashish Shah, Chief Investment Officer of Public Investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.
As Bank Stress Grows, are Markets Signaling a US Recession?
The turbulence among smaller banks in the U.S. is set to slow the economy, raising the likelihood of a recession. But stock and bond markets were offering different signals about whether the U.S. is headed for a hard landing earlier this week, according to Brett Nelson, head of tactical asset allocation for the Asset & Wealth Management Investment Strategy Group (ISG) at Goldman Sachs.
What the Banking Turmoil Means for Investors’ Portfolios
Since the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, investors are closely watching how stress in the financial sector is spreading through markets and the economy. With First Republic Bank and Credit Suisse making headlines, policymakers are examining what they can do to steady markets and restore confidence. So, has the fallout been contained? And what does this all mean for investors’ portfolios? In this episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, Richard Ramsden, who leads the research coverage of the banking sector, Chris Hallam, who covers the banking sector in EMEA, and Brett Nelson, head of tactical asset allocation for the Asset & Wealth Management Investment Strategy Group of Goldman Sachs, provide an update on the banking sector and discuss what this means for investors.
Why the Global Housing Market Has Further to Slide
Higher mortgage rates are taking their toll on housing markets around the world, and sales and prices will likely remain under pressure this year in most G10 economies, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
Why Banking Stress Will Likely Have a Manageable Impact on Growth in Europe
Recent stress on the global banking system has led to only a slight deterioration in the outlook for economic growth in the euro area and the U.K.
Stress Among Small Banks is Likely to Slow the US Economy
As stress ripples through smaller banks in the U.S., the tightening in lending standards among those institutions is expected to reduce economic growth this year, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
How Much Higher Can Bond Yields Go?
Stronger economic data has recently raised concerns that inflation is likely to remain stickier than expected. In the latest episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, Rick Rieder, chief investment officer of Global Fixed Income at BlackRock, and Praveen Korapaty, chief interest rates strategist at Goldman Sachs Research, say interest rates have somewhat further to climb and are likely to stay at higher levels for longer. Rieder and Korapaty also share their views on the global outlook for bonds across Europe and Japan, as well as the implications for investors. This episode is based on Goldman Sachs’ most recent Top of Mind report, (Japanese) Bonds, Bonds, Bonds.
Marc Rowan, CEO and Co-Founder of Apollo Global Management
Marc Rowan, CEO and Co-Founder of Apollo Global Management, discusses Apollo's growth strategy, his views on alternative investments, and why he believes alts could soon make up 50 percent of individuals' portfolios.
Is it Time to Invest in Emerging Markets?
As the global economic backdrop continues to improve, is it time to invest in emerging markets? In the latest episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, Kay Haigh, co-CIO of Fixed Income, and Hiren Dasani, co-head of emerging markets equity, within Goldman Sachs Asset & Wealth Management, discuss the recent rally in emerging markets and the outlook for 2023.
Higher Rates Will Weaken the UK’s Economy via the Housing Market
After 10 consecutive interest rate hikes, the Bank of England is balancing the need to control inflation with the risk of increasing rates too far. The policy tightening is likely to weigh heavily on growth via the U.K. housing market, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
(Japanese) Bonds, Bonds, Bonds
Bond markets have been on a wild ride. After a rally heading into the year, yields have recently risen sharply on better growth and sticky inflation data. The bond story has also been joined by a character not seen in many years: Japan. What lies ahead for global bond markets—and especially JGBs given the impending shift in BoJ leadership—and the implications for other assets and investors’ portfolios is Top of Mind.
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon on the Economy, Markets and the Firm’s Performance
In a special episode of the Exchanges at Goldman Sachs podcast, Goldman Sachs Chairman and CEO David Solomon shares his views on the macroeconomic environment — including his concern that inflation is likely to be “stickier” and harder to manage — as well as what’s on the minds of clients and the CEOs he meets with.
For Signs of Economic Growth in Asia, Look North
The reopening of China and an economic recovery in Korea could shift the center of gravity in Asian stock markets to the north, away from India and ASEAN countries, according to a Goldman Sachs Research report.
Why This Yield Curve May Not Signal a U.S. Recession
The US yield curve inversion widened last week to a level not seen since 1981. In a newly published report, Goldman Sachs Research’s economists question the predictive power of this longtime recession indicator and argue why this time might be different.
Should Investors Stay Invested in 2023?
2022 was a difficult year for investors' portfolios, and while our Investment Strategy Group expects this year to be less turbulent for markets, there is still a fog of uncertainty facing investors. So, should investors stay invested in the markets? In this episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, head of the Investment Strategy Group and chief investment officer of Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs, addresses this question and outlines her team's investment themes and views for the year ahead.
Why Corporate Layoffs May Not Signal a Weaker Demand for Jobs
A puzzling contrast has emerged in the US labor market in recent months: Announced job cuts keep mounting but official employment data from the government continue to point to resilient demand for workers. Collectively, corporations announced more than 100,000 layoffs in January alone. A new report from Goldman Sachs Research tackles the question of whether the spate of job cuts means the labor market has already entered a downturn.
Why Investors are Leaning into Alternatives: Apollo’s Marc Rowan
In this episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs: Great Investors, Marc Rowan, CEO and co-founder of Apollo Global Management, speaks with Alison Mass, chairman of Goldman Sachs Investment Banking, about leading one of the world’s largest alternative asset managers, the fundamental changes that are reshaping markets and economies, building a strong workplace culture, and why everyone should “be curious, not defensive.”
Investors Expect Equity Capital Markets Activity to Double This Year
A wide range of investors think activity in equity capital markets will double in 2023 from the year before, when markets were beset by volatility, according to Goldman Sachs’ Annual Equity Capital Markets Investor Survey.
What’s Ahead for Economies and Markets in 2023?
What’s in store for economies and markets in 2023? In this episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, head of Goldman Sachs Research and the firm’s chief economist, and Dominic Wilson, Senior Advisor in the Global Markets Research Group, explain why they believe the U.S. can avoid a recession and how the economic landscape is improving in Europe and China in 2023.
Why the US Can Avoid a Recession in 2023
The threat of a U.S. recession remains alive in 2023. The consensus estimate on the probability of a meaningful downturn in the American economy in the next 12 months is at 65%, according to Goldman Sachs Research. But our own economic analysis rates that probability much lower, at 35%. David Mericle, our chief U.S. economist, and Alec Phillips, our chief U.S. political economist, elaborate on that lower risk and answer some of the big questions facing the U.S. economy in 2023.
After a Challenging 2022, What’s Next for Emerging Market Bonds?
It’s been a challenging year for emerging markets, which faced tighter financial conditions and growth headwinds from the war in Ukraine and China’s property sector. Bond markets in lower-quality developing countries have been hit especially hard amid rising interest rates. We spoke with Kay Haigh, head of emerging market debt in Goldman Sachs Asset Management, and Nick Saunders, head of emerging market corporate debt, about challenges and opportunities posed by a new era for financial markets — one in which easy policy is no longer around to lift all assets.
The Path to 2075 — Slower Global Growth, But Convergence Remains Intact
Two decades since Goldman Sachs Research first set out long-term growth projections for the BRICs economies, GS Research economists update and expand those projections to cover 104 countries out to 2075 and identify four major themes for the global economy.
The Global Economy in 2075: Growth Slows as Asia Rises
The world’s fastest years of economic growth are likely already behind it — expansion is slowing as population growth weakens, according to Goldman Sachs Research. But emerging economies, and powerhouses in Asia in particular, are forecast to keep catching up to richer countries.
Is It Time to Switch from Stocks to Bonds?
As central banks ratchet up interest rates to contain inflation, high-grade bonds are starting to give stocks a run for their money, according to Goldman Sachs Research’s 2023 Outlook for Asset Allocation.
Spiking Tech Layoffs Don’t Signal Impending Recession
Do mass layoffs in Big Tech mean big trouble for the U.S. economy? Probably not, according to a new report from Goldman Sachs Research.
Central Bank Tightening: What Could Break?
Central banks’ aggressive policy tightening has raised concerns about what could break in a global financial system accustomed to low rates. In this episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, Goldman Sachs’ Allison Nathan speaks with Jeremy Stein, Professor at Harvard University and a former Federal Reserve Board Governor, and Vítor Constâncio, former vice president of the European Central Bank, about which financial stability risks are worth watching, whether policymakers have the tools to manage those risks, and if they could prompt central banks to slow or even pause tightening. The episode is based on Goldman Sachs Research’s latest Top of Mind report.
Supply Chains and US Inflation: Short-Term Gains, Long-Term Pains?
Covid-related supply-chain disruptions and the inflation they brought about in the U.S. are starting to go back to normal, but some of the reaction to that disruption could cause inflationary pressures of their own, according to a report from Goldman Sachs Research.
Central Bank Tightening: What Could Break?
Central banks’ aggressive policy tightening has raised concerns about what could break in a global financial system accustomed to low rates. Which financial stability risks are worth watching, whether policymakers have the tools to manage those risks, and if they could prompt central banks to slow or even pause tightening, is Top of Mind.
Europe’s Energy Crisis: End in sight or far from over?
Plentiful natural gas supplies and mild weather across Europe are creating optimism that the continent may be able to avoid shortages and blackouts this winter. But is that optimism premature? In this episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, Goldman Sachs Research’s Samantha Dart, a senior energy strategist who focuses on the natural gas markets, and Jari Stehn, our chief European economist, discuss the state of Europe’s energy crisis and its impact on the broader European economy.
The UK is Expected to Slide into a More ‘Significant’ Recession
After weeks of financial turmoil, the U.K. is expected to slide into a deeper recession than previously forecast, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
Rent Catch-Up Is Likely to Keep Inflation High Next Year
Higher rents were a big driver in September’s higher-than-expected consumer price index (CPI) reading. A new report from Goldman Sachs Research finds such inflation could be the source of persistent inflation “stickiness.”
How to Protect a Stock Portfolio During a Bear Market
At a time when stocks are sliding deeper into a bear market, it can be hard (and painful) to remember that equities have the best chance of getting investors an attractive return over the longer term. Portfolios have gotten riskier since the beginning of the year, as bonds and stocks have fallen together. But there are ways investors can insulate portfolios until the turbulence subsides, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
Taking Stock: What’s Ahead for US Markets
It’s been a bleak year for the stock market which, despite some short-term rallies, is still firmly entrenched in bear market territory. So where do we go from here? In the latest episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, chief US equity strategist in Goldman Sachs Research, discusses the outlook for US equities and the sectors and styles still working in today’s environment.
Why the British Pound Fell to a Record Low Against the US Dollar
The U.K. currency, already buffeted by an energy price shock, traded at a record low against the dollar after the government unveiled a spending plan that some fear could spark higher inflation.
The Invasion of Zombie Companies that Wasn’t
Investors and policy makers have long worried that ultra-low interest rates would give rise to a legion of zombie companies — firms that survive mainly because borrowing is cheap and plentiful. But there are reasons to think the number of zombies is smaller than some feared, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
Will Slaying Inflation Require Recession?
In the fight to combat high inflation, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have embarked on aggressive tightening paths. But how much damage to economic growth will they ultimately have to inflict to win this fight? In the latest episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs’ chief economist and head of Goldman Sachs Research, and Olivier Blanchard, C. Fred Bergsten Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute, debate whether the Fed can rebalance an overheated labor market — a key requirement to tame inflation — without a sharp rise in unemployment. This episode is based off of Goldman Sachs’ latest Top of Mind report.
Is the US Dollar Too Strong?
The U.S. dollar is on a roll. Even as the American economy shows signs of cooling, the greenback has soared against major currencies from Europe’s 19-member euro to the Chinese renminbi. An index of the dollar versus other major currencies is trading around a two-decade high.
Will Slaying Inflation Require Recession?
In the fight to combat high inflation, US and European central banks have embarked on aggressive tightening paths that seem all but guaranteed to continue in the near term. But how much damage to economic growth will they ultimately have to inflict to win this fight? In the US, a heated debate has emerged about whether the Fed can rebalance an overheated labor market—a key requirement to tame inflation—without a sharp rise in unemployment. And in the Euro area, the ECB is stuck between a rock and a hard place as the region remains in the throes of an energy crisis that is both weighing on growth and contributing to high inflation.
Bear Repair: The Bumpy Road to Recovery
Goldman Sachs Research expects the next bull market to be 'Fatter & Flatter' than the last. In this report, analysts describe and analyze the trigger points around market transition markers in an attempt to understand the likely path following the powerful equity rally since June.
Cliff Asness, Founder, Managing Principal and Chief Investment Officer of AQR Capital Management
Cliff Asness, Founder, Managing Principal and Chief Investment Officer of AQR Capital Management, shares his insights on the markets during a challenging environment of record-high inflation, rising interest rates and recession fears.
How Deep Could the Next US Recession Be?
If the U.S. economy slips into a downturn in the next year, there’s at least one consolation: the contraction isn’t expected to be deep, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
Why a Recession Would Likely Be Mild
The US economy has about a one in three chance of slipping into recession by the middle of 2023, according to Goldman Sachs Research economists. They believe that any post-Covid US recession would likely be mild, with a limited increase in the unemployment rate of around 1 percentage point. This would be unprecedented in postwar US history, though recessions with similarly limited increases have occurred in other G10 economies, such as Germany and Canada.
Food, Fuel, and the Cost-of-Living Crisis
In this episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, commodity bull Jeff Currie, Goldman Sachs’ Global Head of Commodities Research, and commodity bear Gary Shilling, President of A. Gary Shilling & Co., debate whether the recent commodity price declines will prove temporary or more lasting while Meghan O’Sullivan, Professor at Harvard University, discusses the geopolitical implications of the commodity crisis and Chris Barrett, Professor at Cornell University, dives deep into the global food crisis and explains what could solve it.
How Close Is the US to Recession?
Signs that the U.S. economy is slowing are increasing. A key question is whether it has decelerated enough to bring down inflation without tipping into recession.
Investing with Forerunner’s Eurie Kim
In this episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs: Great Investors, Eurie Kim, managing partner at Forerunner Ventures, speaks with Goldman Sachs’ Katie Koch, chief investment officer of public equity in Goldman Sachs Asset Management, about the evolution of direct-to-consumer businesses, her investment philosophy and the dislocation between private and public market valuations.
How to Overhaul the Tried-and-Tested Investment Portfolio When Inflation Soars
The 60/40 portfolio — split between the S&P 500 Index of stocks (60%) and 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds (40%) — fell about 20% in the first half of 2022, the biggest decline on record for the start of a year, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
Investing with Oaktree Capital Management’s Howard Marks
In this episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs: Great Investors, Howard Marks, co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management, speaks with Goldman Sachs’ Katie Koch, chief investment officer of Public Equity in Goldman Sachs Asset Management, about his investment philosophy, his views on market cycles and why investing is the “discipline of relative selection.”
Can Private Markets Resist the Bear Market in Stocks?
As stock markets stumble, will the trillions of dollars that have flowed into private markets be a haven from the turmoil?
Revisiting Recession Facts
Goldman Sachs Research analysts estimate that the risk of the economy entering a recession in the next year is 30% in the US, 40% in the Euro area, and 45% in the UK. In this report, they revisit key facts about the frequency and severity of recessions by analyzing 77 recessions in advanced economies since 1961.
Investing with Norges Bank Investment Management’s Nicolai Tangen
How is the leader of the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund navigating slowing economic growth, rising inflation and geopolitical conflicts? In this episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs: Great Investors, Nicolai Tangen, chief executive officer of Norges Bank Investment Management, talks with Goldman Sachs’ Katie Koch, chief investment officer of Public Equity in the Asset Management Division, about the fund’s mission and why he expects the investing environment to be more difficult.
The Global Housing Market is Starting to Wobble as Central Banks Hike Rates
The pandemic-induced housing boom appears to be cooling off. From Toronto to Auckland, a slowdown in the housing market (the most interest-rate sensitive segment of the economy) is underway as interest rates in developed economies are set to climb rapidly, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
Wage Inflation in the US May Have Already Peaked
Jaws dropped when the latest report on consumer price inflation arrived, clocking its biggest year-over-year jump in the U.S. since 1981. That and other economic data points contributed to the Federal Reserve’s decision on June 15 to make its biggest rate hike since 1994. But there are signs that labor shortages — a key driver of overall inflation, may have peaked months ago, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
Howard Marks, Co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management
Howard Marks, co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management, discusses his investment philosophy and the art of assessing risk and identifying investment opportunities.
Investing with KKR’s Joe Bae
In this episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs: Great Investors, Joe Bae, Co-CEO of KKR, shares his thoughts with Goldman Sachs’ Alison Mass, chairman of the Investment Banking Division, about the evolution of the private equity industry, what’s top of mind for CEOs and how the firm is navigating a challenging macro environment.
Equity Bear Market: A Paradigm Shift?
Against a challenging backdrop of sky-high inflation, rising rates and growing recession concerns, the S&P 500 has had an undeniably grim start to the year, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq and unprofitable growth companies performing even more dismally. In this episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, host Allison Nathan turns to three equity market heavyweights — Cathie Wood, founder, CEO, and CIO of ARK Invest; Cliff Asness, founder and CIO of AQR Capital Management; and David Kostin, Goldman Sachs chief U.S. Equity Strategist — for their thoughts on where equities are heading from here and what that means for investors. This episode is based on Allison Nathan’s Top of Mind research report.
Equity Bear Market: A Paradigm Shift?
Against a backdrop of sky-high inflation, rising rates, and growing recession concerns, the S&P 500 has had its worst start to the year since 1962, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq and unprofitable Growth companies performing even more dismally. Whether equity markets are in the midst of a paradigm shift and what’s in store for them ahead is Top of Mind.
How Retail Investors Are Shaping Markets
The pandemic spurred a new generation of retail investors, many of whom are now stepping away from the markets. In the latest episode Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, John Marshall, head of derivatives research in Goldman Sachs Research, Greg Tuorto, a portfolio manager of small to midcap stocks in our Asset Management Division, and David Jeria, who manages the Americas equity execution team in our Global Markets Division, explain how the role of the retail investor in the markets has evolved and how their trading patterns have shaped market liquidity.
Investing with Advent International’s Tricia Glynn
In our inaugural episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs: Great Investors, Tricia Glynn, managing director at Advent International, talks with Goldman Sachs’ Alison Mass, chairman of the Investment Banking Division, on “breaking glass moments” in the industry, her outlook on the private equity landscape, and how she finds her best investments.
A ‘Seismic’ Shift in Private Markets
The private financial markets have grown sharply in recent years as easy monetary policies drove investors towards illiquid markets offering higher yields. In this episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, Mike Koester, co-president of the Alternatives business in Goldman Sachs’ Asset Management Division, explains how investors in the private markets are navigating cyclical headwinds and a slowdown in the pace of fundraising.
Facing Rising Rates, Insurers Turn to Private Assets, Real Estate — Even Crypto
The world’s largest investors — insurers — are relatively optimistic about the investment landscape, despite rising concerns about inflation. In this episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, Mike Siegel, global head of the insurance asset management and liquidity solutions businesses in Goldman Sachs Asset Management, breaks down the results of the firm’s latest insurance survey, Re-emergence: Inflation, Yields, and Uncertainty.
Welcome to the ‘Postmodern’ Cycle of Higher Inflation and Lower Stock Returns
The economy based on physical stuff is getting its revenge. Not so long ago, investors were enamored with fast-growing companies that used software to send a ride or groceries to your door at the push of button, even if the firm’s profits were far off in the horizon. But these days, healthy margins and companies that make real, physical stuff are back in focus, according to Peter Oppenheimer, chief global equity strategist at Goldman Sachs.
What’s Behind the Tech Sell-Off?
How low can tech go? The sharp sell-off in technology shares is one of the sector’s worst stretches in years. In our latest Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, Brook Dane, portfolio manager in Goldman Sachs Asset Management, and Peter Callahan, a U.S. TMT sector specialist in our Global Markets Division, discuss the drivers and implications of the tech sector’s market rout.
Retail Investors Are Sticking with the US Stock Market—So Far
The S&P 500 Index this year has fallen by the most in decades, as investors reckon with everything from lockdowns in China to a Federal Reserve that aims to cool the most overheated job market in postwar U.S. history. But retail investors, who have become a key force in U.S. equities, have for the most part kept their cool.
The Postmodern Cycle
From the 1980s a 'Modern Cycle' evolved driven by lower inflation, independent central banks, globalization, lower volatility, longer cycles and higher profit shares of GDP. GS Research analysts argue that we are entering a new 'Postmodern' cycle in which inflation is a bigger risk than deflation. They also predict that we are likely to see greater regionalization, more expensive labor and commodities, as well as larger and more active governments.
The US Economy Is Poised to Slow as the Fed Taps the Brakes
The Federal Reserve is tapping the brakes on U.S. economic growth, which could help bring down inflation and temper the most overheated job market in postwar American history, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
Brazil Wrestles with Stagflation as the Fed Starts Tightening
Like many countries, Brazil faces a challenging mix of slowing economic growth and soaring inflation. But what makes Latin America’s largest economy different from other nations is that its central bank has lifted its benchmark rate 10-straight times to one of the highest policy rates in the world.
Is (De)globalization Ahead?
Amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict, COVID-19 lockdowns and associated supply chain disruptions, globalization is arguably facing its biggest test of the post-Cold War era. In this episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Dani Rodrik, professor at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government, and Jim O’Neill, former chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, discuss where globalization is headed from here and what that could mean for society, the economy, and markets. This episode is based on Goldman Sachs Research’s latest Top of Mind report “(De)Globalization Ahead?”
Joe Bae, Co-CEO of KKR and Founder of The Asian American Foundation
Joe Bae, Co-CEO of KKR, discusses structural shifts in the global markets caused by the pandemic and war in Ukraine, trends shaping the Asian market, and his work to combat anti-Asian discrimination and violence.
How China’s ‘Perfect Storm’ and Economic Headwinds Are Affecting Markets and Investors
As COVID-19 lockdowns in China threaten to further upend supply chains and the global economy, investors are reevaluating their exposure to China. In the latest episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, Goldman Sachs Research’s Kinger Lau, chief equity strategist in Macro Research, and Hui Shan, Goldman Sachs’ chief China economist, discuss the outlook for China’s economy and markets.
Will the US go into recession?
Can the Federal Reserve slow the U.S. economy enough to bring down inflation without causing a recession? It’s a delicate balance, but there are several reasons that it could be more achievable than in the past, according to economists at Goldman Sachs.
Rising Stagflation Risks Are Changing the Investment Playbook
For decades, investors have relied on a 60/40 portfolio — a mix of 60% stocks and 40% bonds — for steady growth and income. But rising stagflation risks are raising the possibility of a “lost decade” of returns for investors in these balanced portfolios while changing the playbook for portfolio construction, according to Christian Mueller-Glissmann, head of asset allocation research in Goldman Sachs Research, and Maria Vassalou, co-chief investment officer of Multi-Asset Solutions in the Asset Management Division, in this episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs.
Are U.S. Companies Actually Reshoring Their Supply Chains?
Why hasn’t reshoring taken off in the U.S.? It may be that the things that made offshoring popular—like lower labor costs—are still relevant, according to economists at Goldman Sachs. Despite the risks of foreign shocks, it may not be economical or even feasible to be the first company to take on higher production costs as an insurance policy against future crises.
Jon Moeller, President/CEO of Procter & Gamble
Procter & Gamble CEO Jon Moeller discusses company innovation, their drive toward sustainability, and his experience navigating supply chain disruptions.
How Policymakers are Navigating Stagflation Risk
In this episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, Former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Eric Rosengren, Vice Chairman of BlackRock Philipp Hildebrand, and Goldman Sachs’ Head of Global Investment Research and Chief Economist Jan Hatzius discuss how policymakers and businesses are navigating the looming risk of stagflation.
Tricia Glynn, Managing Director at Advent International
Tricia Glynn, a managing director at Advent International, discusses her personal story and career trajectory, trends shaping private equity, and her investment outlook for the year.
Raising Capital: How Corporate Financing Strategies Are Evolving
In this episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, Beth Hammack, Goldman Sachs’ co-head of the Global Financing Group in the Investment Banking Division, explains how tightening financial conditions and volatile markets are affecting companies’ ability to raise capital.
Global Markets Daily: How Much Risk is Priced into Global Assets Now?
The invasion of Ukraine and the escalating sanctions on Russia continue to be the dominant driver of markets. Before the start of military action, Goldman Sachs Research estimated how much geopolitical risk premium was priced into a range of global assets and estimated how those assets might move in the case of either a full de-escalation or a version of a scenario where risks flared into outright conflict.
What the Russia-Ukraine Conflict Means for the Global Economy and Markets
In this episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, Goldman Sachs Research’s Daan Struyven, senior global economist, Peter Oppenheimer, chief global equity strategist, and Kamakshya Trivedi, co-head of Global Foreign Exchange, Interest Rates and Emerging Markets Strategy Research, discuss the implications of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on global economies, equities and emerging markets.
Korea: What if? Strong Upside from Potential MSCI DM Reclassification and Narrowing of Valuation Discount
Korea’s potential reclassification as a developed market is gaining traction. The Finance Minister and Korea Exchange Chairman have publicly advocated changes that specifically address impediments to MSCI upgrading Korea to developed market (DM) status. Also, there appears to be broad political consensus for the upgrade initiative given the election platforms of the major presidential candidates.
What the Fed’s Hawkish Pivot Means for Economic Growth and Markets
In this episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, Goldman Sachs Research’s chief U.S. economist, and Brian Friedman, the Global Markets Division’s global head of Market Strats, discuss how the hawkish shift in Fed policy is affecting economic growth, markets and investors.
The Case for Commodities: ‘Super-Backwardation,’ Structural Demand and Inventory Shortages
In this episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, Jeffrey Currie, global head of Commodities Research in Goldman Sachs Research, discusses why he believes commodities are entering a supercycle and how the current geopolitical landscape is shaping commodity markets.
As Rates Reprice and Stocks Sell Off, What’s Next?
In the latest episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, Goldman Sachs Research’s David Kostin and the Global Markets Division’s Jonathan Shugar share their thoughts on how the recent jump in bond yields and sell off in growth stocks are reshaping markets and investor strategy.
What’s Ahead for Global Economies and Markets in 2022?
Global economies and markets are facing a more complicated landscape amid rising rates, slowing growth and shifting monetary and fiscal policies. Goldman Sachs’ Jan Hatzius and Dominic Wilson examine what’s in store for 2022.
The Case for Investing in Emerging Markets Beyond China
Is there a case for dropping China from emerging market (EM) indices? We sat down with Goldman Sachs Research’s Timothy Moe and Sunil Koul to discuss the drivers behind the growing debate to invest in EMs, without China.
Indian Equities: Digital Transformation as Private Goes Public
The number of “unicorns” has surged in India in recent years, enabled by the rise of the internet ecosystem, availability of private capital and a favorable regulatory environment. Goldman Sachs Research expects the IPO pipeline to remain robust over the next 12-24 months, with market cap increasing from US$3.5tn currently to over US$5tn by 2024, making India the 5th largest market by capitalization.
Why Hedge Funds Are Turning to the Private Markets
Hedge funds are turning to the private markets, bringing increasing competition to the space. Goldman Sachs’ Kristin Kramer and Freddie Parker explain the shift in public and private market dynamics and the implications for investors.
What’s Behind the Record-Breaking IPO Market?
Global equity issuance is up substantially and on track to set new records in 2021. Goldman Sachs’ Elizabeth Reed explains why—and how—more companies are choosing to go public today.
How Are Investors Navigating China’s Regulatory Uncertainty?
Goldman Sachs’ Stephanie Hui, Basak Yavuz and Prakriti Sofat of the Asset Management Division describe the impact of China's heightened regulatory scrutiny on the capital markets and the implications for investors.
Widening the Aperture: Family Office Investment Insights
Our inaugural Goldman Sachs Family Office report draws from our firm’s first global survey of family office decision makers, in addition to our collective experience working with family offices.
Jefferies' CEO: World In a 'Dangerous Place' Right Now
As one of the longest-tenured CEOs on Wall Street, Jefferies Financial Group CEO Rich Handler has seen his share of market cycles, crises and technological changes. In a recent conversation with Katie Koch, co-head of Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s Fundamental Equity business, Handler shared his thoughts on the economy, capital markets activity and innovation across sectors.
Market Themes on the Minds of European Investors
Kene Ejikeme of Goldman Sachs Global Markets discusses the key themes European investors are watching—from the impact of fiscal policy on markets to the “reopening theme”—and how Europe is poised to benefit from a global recovery.
From Growth to Value: Where We Are in the Equity Markets
Lou Miller of Goldman Sachs’ Global Markets explains what’s driving the equity market rotation from growth to value, which sectors are benefiting, and how long the trade may continue.
Emerging Markets’ Next Phase
Jennifer Roth of Global Markets discusses how emerging markets are faring during a continuing pandemic and a nascent economic recovery.
What’s Behind the Record Level of Equity Issuance?
Goldman Sachs’ Benny Adler, co-head of the Americas Franchise Trading team, explains the supply-and-demand dynamics behind the “unprecedented" amount of equity issuance.
The Beginning of a Structural Bull Market for Commodities
Damien Courvalin, head of Energy within the Commodities Research team for Goldman Sachs Research, discusses his team’s latest outlook for commodities and why they’re raising their returns forecasts.
Elevated Equity Valuations
With markets hitting new highs, are equity valuations at a peak? We sat down with Candice Tse, U.S. head of Market Strategy within the Strategic Advisory Solutions team in Goldman Sachs' Asset Management Division, who shared her view on the current valuations.
Higher Rates Unlikely to Derail the US Housing Market Strength
Marty Young of Goldman Sachs Research discusses his team’s new report on the US housing market, one of the most rate-sensitive sectors of the US economy, and why he expects house price appreciation to continue to remain positive even in the event of an interest rate shock.
How Hedge Funds are Navigating a Volatile Market
Diana Dieckman and Freddie Parker of Prime Service within Goldman Sachs’ Global Markets Division talk about the state of the hedge fund industry and the current sentiment among fund managers and allocators.
Markets Update: Cryptocurrency Trading
Mathew McDermott, head of Digital Assets for Goldman Sachs’ Global Markets Division, discusses the cryptocurrency trading environment for institutional investors.
Markets Update: Inflation and Equities
Peter Oppenheimer, Goldman Sachs’ chief global equity strategist and head of Macro Research in Europe, talks about why the changing mix of policy support in this cycle suggests a possible inflection point towards a more reflationary environment.
The ‘Equitization’ of the Credit Markets
William Wolcott of the Global Markets Division explains how the advent of credit ETFs have shaped fixed-income markets.
Big, Bold, Strategic Moves: The 2021 M&A Outlook
Stephan Feldgoise and Mark Sorrell, co-heads of global mergers & acquisitions in Goldman Sachs’ Investment Banking Division, discuss the key drivers behind historic levels of M&A activity, their positive outlook for dealmaking in 2021, and the resurgence of cross-border transactions. Plus, check out an infographic on the implications of executing M&A transactions in a virtual environment.
The Outlook for Airlines in 2021
Catie O’Brien of Goldman Sachs Research talks about her outlook for the airline industry in 2021 and why her team is forecasting an uptick in demand in the second half of the year.
Markets Update: The Rise of Retail Investing
Joe Duran, head of Personal Financial Management, a Goldman Sachs company, discusses the rise in retail investing and what it means for individual investors’ portfolio strategies.
Special Episode: The Rise of Retail Investing and Its Impact Across Market Participants
In this special episode, four leaders across Goldman Sachs—Raj Mahajan of the Global Markets Division, John Marshall of Goldman Sachs Research, Lizzie Reed of the Investment Banking Division, and Greg Tuorto of Goldman Sachs Asset Management—discuss the historic rise of retail investing and its profound implications for market participants.
The IPO SPAC-Tacle
With the strength of the IPO market and the surge in IPOs via SPACs continuing into 2021, host Allison Nathan, creator and editor of the firm’s Top of Mind report, asks experts whether or not these trends are sustainable. She speaks with Goldman Sachs’ head of Global Equity Capital Markets, David Ludwig, Professor of Finance at the University of Florida, Jay Ritter, and Professor of Business and Law at Stanford Law School, Michael Klausner.
Markets Update: January’s Record Inflows and Retail Trading Boom
Scott Rubner of Goldman Sachs' Global Markets Division recaps historic inflows into global equities in January and talks about the ongoing retail trading phenomenon and what it means for markets.
Goldman Sachs CFO Stephen Scherr on 2020 and How the Firm is Tracking Against Its Goals
One year after Goldman Sachs’ first-ever Investor Day, Stephen Scherr, the firm’s Chief Financial Officer, provides an update on how the firm is tracking against its goals and why 2021 will be a “year of execution.”
Markets Update: Emerging Markets in 2021
Jennifer Roth of Goldman Sachs' Global Markets Division gives a quick update on why investors have been turning to emerging markets amid the global backdrop of low interest rates.
Companies Continue to Turn to SPACs for Greater Flexibility
Olympia McNerney of Goldman Sachs’ Investment Banking Division talks about the continued momentum behind SPACs as an alternative path for companies to raise money in the public markets.
Markets Update: Financial Services Outlook
Richard Ramsden, business unit leader of the Financials Group for Goldman Sachs Research, provides an update on the financial services industry and the market backdrop going into 2021.
Markets Update: Looking Back on 2020’s Roller Coaster Ride
Drew Pavlovich of Goldman Sachs’ Consumer and Wealth Division recaps a historic year in financial markets and talks about how clients are positioning their portfolios going into 2021.
Markets Update: The Bull Run in 2021
Peter Oppenheimer, the firm’s chief global equity strategist, talks about why his team remains confident about the global recovery in 2021.
Markets Update: A Biden Presidency, a Possible Vaccine and the Future of the S&P
David Kostin, Goldman Sachs Research’s Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, looks back at an events-heavy week and what it means for markets in the days ahead.
Markets Update: Investors Feel “Relief” As Clarity Begins to Form Around US Election
Ashok Varadhan, global co-head of Goldman Sachs’ Global Markets Division, on how markets have moved in response to the US election and what investors expect in terms of economic growth and policy agendas looking ahead.
Markets Update: Investors Anticipate Next Week’s U.S. Election
Amelia Garnett of Goldman Sachs' Global Markets Division talks about the key conversations she's having with investors ahead of the November 3rd election.
Markets Update: Election Outlook
Alec Phillips, chief US political economist for Goldman Sachs Research, provides an update on investors’ expectations for the upcoming election on November 3rd.
Markets Update: Taking Stock of Year-to-Date Performance
Tony Pasquariello of Global Markets gives an update on US equity performance and why 2020 has seen so much trading activity.
Markets Update: Investor Sentiment Tilts Marginally Bullish and Pro-Cyclical
Jason Mathews of Goldman Sachs’ Global Markets Division explains what the futures market indicates about investors’ outlook for the election and another round of U.S. fiscal stimulus.
Markets Update: Investors Assess How and When to Position Portfolios for a Post-Vaccine Economy
Erin Riley of the Markets Coverage Group in Private Wealth Management discusses the two key milestones her clients are watching: the U.S. election and the potential for a COVID-19 vaccine.
Markets Update: How Emerging-Market Economies are Navigating a Recovery
Jennifer Roth of Goldman Sachs’ Global Markets Division talks about how emerging-market economies are trying to steer their way toward a recovery, and how investors are responding to those efforts.
Markets Update: September Turbulence
Tony Pasquariello of Goldman Sachs' Global Markets Division explains how major stock market indices have backtracked somewhat from record highs in August – and why investors aren’t getting too worked up about it.
Markets Update: European Leveraged Capital Markets
Dominic Ashcroft and Luke Gillam, co-heads of EMEA Leveraged Capital Markets in Goldman Sachs’ Investment Banking Division, talk about the “cautiously optimistic” sentiment among corporate clients.
Markets Update: Subdued Mood as S&P 500 Hits Record Highs
Michael Cassell of Goldman Sachs' Global Markets Division talks about the cautious optimism with which investors are viewing the current equity market rally.
COVID-19: Where We Go From Here
Well into the COVID-19 pandemic, countries continue to grapple with managing the virus while restoring economic activity. Where the virus will go from here, what that means for the economy and markets—and how the vaccine outlook might impact everything—is Top of Mind.
Markets Update: U.S. Election in Focus
Tony Pasquariello of Global Markets and Joe Wall of the Office of Government Affairs discuss how investors are viewing the upcoming U.S. election in November.
Markets Update: SPACs
Olympia McNerney of Goldman Sachs talks about what’s been driving the surge in SPACs as an alternative avenue for companies to raise money in the public markets.
Markets Update: Balanced Bear Repair
Christian Mueller-Glissmann of Goldman Sachs Research discusses his new research about asset allocation with the risk of ‘fat and flat’ markets.
Trends Shaping the Equity Markets
Philip Berlinski, co-chief operating officer of Global Equities, shares his view on equity markets heading into the second half of the year.
Markets Update: Europe’s Fiscal Stimulus
José Manuel Barroso, chairman of Goldman Sachs International, provides an update on Europe’s latest fiscal stimulus package.
Markets Update: A “Gritty” Second Quarter
Jim Esposito, global co-head of Goldman Sachs’ Global Markets Division, recaps second quarter performance and the ongoing commitment to client centricity.
Markets Update: "Investor Sobriety" Carries into Q3
Tony Pasquariello of Global Markets recaps the historic market rally of Q2 and institutional investors’ outlook for Q3.
U.S. Dollar Weakness
Zach Pandl of Goldman Sachs Research explains the factors driving U.S. dollar weakness.
Markets Update: Banks’ Stress Tests
Richard Ramsden of Goldman Sachs Research explains what the results from U.S. banks’ latest stress tests say about the health of the industry.
What’s Driving Growth in Alternative Asset Classes?
Kristin Olson of the Consumer and Investment Management Division explains where investors are finding value in alternative asset classes.
Markets Update: Will the Recovery Be Derailed?
Amelia Garnett of Global Markets discusses how investors are weighing market risks.
Markets Update: The Rise of the Retail Investor
Philip Berlinski, COO of Global Equities, provides an update on what’s driving equity markets.
Markets Update: Constructive Conditions for Equity Issuers and Investors
Lizzie Reed of Goldman Sachs’ Investment Banking Division gives an update on what’s been driving investor interest in equity markets.
Markets Update: Investors Assess U.S.-China Risks
Michael Cassell of Global Markets gives a quick update on how investors are approaching market risks, from US-China tensions to ongoing COVID-19 uncertainty.
Markets Update: Investor Sentiment Improves as Lockdowns Lift
Tony Pasquariello of Goldman Sachs’ Global Markets Division provides an update on how investors are reacting to the gradual re-opening of the U.S. economy.
Reopening Retail and the Future of Shopping
Jen Davis, Goldman Sachs’ head of retail investment banking, discusses the impact of the pandemic on various parts of the retail industry, including the potential shift in consumer behavior and the outlook for e-commerce.
Markets Update: How ESG is Changing
Goldman Sachs’ John Goldstein and external speakers provide an update on ESG and COVID-19.
Understanding the Markets-Macro Disconnect
Sam Morgan, co-head of Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities Sales in EMEA, discusses why markets are robust despite challenging economic data.
Markets Update: Latin America
Jen Roth of Global Markets provides an update on how COVID-19 is impacting investor sentiment in emerging markets.
Stacy Selig on ESG as a Market Theme
Stacy Selig, co-head of Goldman Sachs Global Sales Strats and Structuring, talks about how she’s helping investors see past the broader trends reflected in major indices and dig deeper to find the tactical drivers of the global economy in a time of historic disruption and uncertainty.
Markets Update: Central Bank Responses
Alex Blanchard of Goldman Sachs’ Global Markets Division shares an update on how global central banks are responding to liquidity concerns.
Jason Mathews on Major Themes Driving Markets
Jason Mathews from Goldman Sachs Equity Derivative Sales discusses how clients are navigating markets and planning for the future during a time of unprecedented volatility.
The State of the Real Estate Market
In this episode of Talks at GS, Goldman Sachs’ Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani discusses the state of the real estate market with a group of business leaders.
Markets Update: Oil Prices Drop to Record Lows
Sarah Kiernan of Goldman Sachs’ Global Markets Division gives her quick take on the latest market volatility, including investors’ reactions to record-low oil prices.
What Shutdowns Mean for Real Estate Investing
Nora Creedon, global head of REITs and Infrastructure in Goldman Sachs Asset Management, discusses how the economic shutdown has impacted real estate investing across sectors.
The Record Volumes and Big Deals Reshaping the Credit Markets
Jonny Fine, head of Goldman Sachs’ Investment Grade Syndicate in the Americas, discusses what’s driving the corporate credit markets during a time of unprecedented uncertainty.
Client Call: Oil Update as Negative Prices Emerge
Goldman Sachs’ Jeff Currie, Damien Courvalin, Brian Singer, and Anthony Dewell provide an update on oil markets as negative prices emerge.
How the Housing Sector Has Been Impacted by the Economic Slowdown
Terry Hagerty of Goldman Sachs’ Investment Banking Division talks about how COVID-19 has impacted the outlook for housing and the broader building products sector.
Harit Talwar on the Future of Consumer Banking
Harit Talwar, global head of Goldman Sachs’ Consumer Business, discusses the impact of the economic shutdown on the evolution of consumer financial services.
Markets Update: What Investors Are Watching
As volatility continues in the public markets, Meena Flynn of Goldman Sachs’ Consumer and Investment Management Division gives her analysis on the latest swings and explains how investors with permanent capital are positioning themselves.
How Markets Have “Changed Forever”
Ashok Varadhan, global co-head of Goldman Sachs’ Global Markets Division, talks about how financial trading has adapted to a primarily remote workforce.
Muni Market Activity
Sylvia Yeh, co-head of Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s Municipal Fixed Income business, discusses volatility in the municipal bonds market and what the Federal Reserve’s latest measures could mean for investors.
Why Money Markets Matter Right Now
Kathleen Hughes, global head of Liquidity Solutions in Goldman Sachs Asset Management, discusses the emerging focus on money markets and short-duration investing as businesses look to navigate the current market environment.
Markets Update: CEO David Solomon Shares His Perspectives on the Current Environment
Goldman Sachs Chairman and CEO David Solomon shares his views on the pandemic and the economic impact, alongside other of the firm’s senior leaders.
Volatility in the Oil Markets
Michele Della Vigna, Goldman Sachs Research’s head of EMEA natural resources, discusses the dual challenges the world’s oil producers are facing from coronavirus and a battle for market share, which has caused a global imbalance in the supply and demand for oil.
Oil’s Seismic Shock
The global oil market is experiencing a massive demand shock, with demand for transportation fuels sitting in the crosshairs of the coronavirus crisis. At the same time, major oil producers have engaged in a war for oil market share, resulting in a sizable supply shock. The impact of these simultaneous shocks on oil prices, OPEC+, the oil industry, and credit and financial markets more broadly are Top of Mind.
Markets Update: Do Investors Think The S&P 500 Has Bottomed Out?
Anne Marie Darling of Goldman Sachs’ Global Markets Division analyzes the S&P 500 index’s historically fast fall into bear market territory.
Navigating Market Volatility
Kevin Kelly, Goldman Sachs’ co-head of Global Prime Services, discusses how hedge funds are navigating historic levels of market volatility and clients’ “constructive, cautiously optimistic” sentiment looking ahead.
Client Call: Market Volatility and Potential Economic Impacts
In an effort to provide timely and valuable updates regarding ongoing market volatility and potential economic impacts, we’re sharing a “Market Update” call hosted by our Investment Banking Division.
The Anatomy of Bear Markets
Goldman Sachs Research’s Peter Oppenheimer, chief global equity strategist, examines the current market downturn within the context of bear markets throughout history.
Global Market Shocks from the '87 Crash to Brexit: Lessons for Today
Steve Strongin and Jan Hatzius on the lessons we can learn from past global market shocks.
What's Next for the Airline Industry?
Catie O’Brien of Goldman Sachs Research explains drivers of improved profitability across the airline industry.
Europe’s Markets vs Japan’s: Parallels and Differences
Europe’s slow economic growth and low inflation have led many to wonder if the region is at risk of “Japanification.” In this episode of The Long & Short of It, Sharon Bell of Goldman Sachs Research explains some of the lessons investors can take from Japan’s recent past to better understand Europe’s future. Watch Video
Dissecting the Market Disconnect
With the US expansion now the longest on record and no shortage of risks on the horizon, growth uncertainty is Top of Mind. This uncertainty has been at the heart of the dovish pivot from central banks this year, which has generally helped push bond yields lower in anticipation of Fed rate cuts ahead, but equity prices higher. So just how concerned about growth should we really be? Learn More
What the Market Pays For
What do markets pay for when they value companies? The common refrain of frustrated managements is that markets are too short-term oriented and miss the long-term potential. But a deep dive into how the market responds to earnings shows the divide is less about time frame than visibility – investors are paying for predictable and persistent revenue. Read Report
Emmanuel Roman, Leadership in a Digital-First Economy
PIMCO Chief Executive Officer Emmanuel Roman discusses bringing a new era of leadership to one of the world’s largest asset management firms, the technological forces shaping the industry and his expectations for the global economy. Watch Video
As Emerging Brands Take Share, M&A Heats Up
As emerging brands take market share from larger, established companies, Jane Dunlevie of Goldman Sachs’ Investment Banking division explains that technology is transforming how consumers identify with brands, as well as how those brands are born and become profitable. Watch Video
The Rate Stuff: What Markets Are Saying About the Macro Outlook
Francesco Garzarelli, co-chief markets economist of the Global Macro Research team, discusses the drivers of recent market volatility and how investors are viewing a strong US macroeconomic backdrop amidst expectations that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates. Listen Now
Rajeev Misra, Creating Capital for the Future
As CEO of SoftBank Investment Advisers, Rajeev Misra has managed some of the biggest deals involving the tech industry in the world. In this discussion, held at the 2017 Goldman Sachs Private Internet Company Conference, Misra describes how he makes investment decisions and the future of finance when it comes to the tech industry. Watch Video
Jayne-Anne Gadhia, Driving Gender Equality in Business
As the longest serving CEO of a European bank, Virgin Money’s Jayne-Anne Gadhia discusses the inflection points that sparked change in her career, how Sir Richard Branson has served as a source of inspiration and why she has made it a top priority to champion equality and diversity in the finance sector. Watch Video
Dan Schulman, The Democratization of Finance
PayPal president and CEO Dan Schulman discusses the power of fintech, why even tech pioneers must constantly change and innovate, and why diversity is critical for commercial success. Watch Video
John Mackey, Conscious Capitalism and Conscious Eating
John Mackey, co-founder and CEO of Whole Foods, discusses the importance of reeducating our palates to a diet of “whole foods” and why conscious capitalism is a critical driver of good business during this Talks at GS session. Watch Video