2024 US Equity Outlook: “All You Had To Do Was Stay”

Goldman Sachs Research forecasts the S&P 500 index will end 2024 at 4700, representing a 12-month price gain of 5% and a total return of 6% including dividends. The baseline assumption during the next year is the US economy continues to expand at a modest pace and avoids a recession, earnings rise by 5%, and the valuation of the equity market equals 18x, close to the current P/E level. Our strategists forecast falls slightly below the typical 8% return during presidential election years.