Is AI already boosting US power demand?

Investors are focused on how AI and data centers may boost power demand over the next decade, after US demand stagnated for two decades. To see where and how data centers show up in actual US power data, Goldman Sachs Research analysts base their analysis on the fact that the growth of US data centers has been highly concentrated in Virginia, and that it shows up within commercial power consumption data.

They document a sharp, 37% rise in commercial power consumption in Virginia from 2016 to 2023, vs flattish power consumption in other sectors in Virginia and in other states. They use a statistical “doppelganger” technique to estimate that data centers boosted Virginia power consumption by 2.2 GW in 2023.