Goldman Sachs economists and experts share insights on macro trends shaping the global economy.
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What's Ahead for Europe's Economy in 2020?
Jari Stehn of Goldman Sachs Research discusses his team’s 2020 outlook for Europe’s economy. Listen Now
U.S. Economic Outlook 2020: On Firmer Ground
Goldman Sachs Research forecasts steady U.S. GDP growth of 2.3%, driven by easier financial conditions, dissipating trade tensions, and continued strength in consumer spending. Watch Video
Fiscal Focus
In this episode of the Top of Mind at Goldman Sachs podcast, Goldman Sachs Research’s Allison Nathan interviews former IMF Chief Economist, Olivier Blanchard, Harvard professor, Alberto Alesina, and Goldman Sachs’ Chief Economist, Jan Hatzius. They discuss whether increased fiscal stimulus today would do more good than harm, and, even if it would, whether the economies that need it the most will pursue it. Learn More
Global Economic Outlook 2020: A Break in the Clouds
Global GDP growth is poised to rise moderately from 3.1% in 2019 to 3.4% next year in Goldman Sachs Research’s view, led by easier financial conditions, a US-China trade détente, and reduced Brexit uncertainty. Learn More
Growth and Geopolitical Risk
Goldman Sachs’ Head of Energy Research Damien Courvalin explains why the oil market is much better positioned to deal with supply outages today, and thus is a less likely recession trigger than in the past. But the Council on Foreign Relations’ President, Richard Haass, and Columbia Professor Richard Nephew explain why instability looks set to rise in the Middle East and beyond. Learn More
Currency Wars
President Trump has voiced concern that a strong Dollar is damaging US competitiveness. Whether the US should, could, and would begin to proactively manage the Dollar, and whether these actions—or further trade war escalation—could lead to a global “currency war” is Top of Mind. Learn More
What’s Driving GDP Growth – and Falling Inflation – in India?
Prachi Mishra, India chief economist for Goldman Sachs Research, Goldman Sachs, discusses the drivers behind India’s economy. Listen Now
What Can Credit Markets Tell Us About the Chances of a US Recession?
Lotfi Karoui of Goldman Sachs Research explains what today’s credit markets indicate about the likelihood of a US recession. Listen Now
Learning from a Century of US Recessions
A review of the last 100 years of US recessions suggests that they can be boiled down to five major causes: industrial shocks, oil supply shocks, inflationary overheating followed by aggressive Fed tightening, private sector financial imbalances, and fiscal tightening. Read Report
Asia Economic Outlook 2019: Everything in Moderation
Goldman Sachs Research expects below-trend growth in the Asia-Pacific region in 2019 as financial conditions tighten and global growth slows. Read Report and Watch Video
China Outlook 2019: Testing Resilience
Goldman Sachs Research projects China’s GDP growth will modestly decline in 2019 as policymakers look to balance mounting debt with the risk of another growth slide. Read Report and Watch Video
European Economic Outlook 2019: Recovery Fatigue
Goldman Sachs Research forecasts European economic growth to slow in 2019 as the benefits from past tailwinds fade. Read Report and Watch Video
US Economic Outlook 2019: The Home Stretch
Goldman Sachs Research forecasts slower US economic growth in 2019 due to tighter financial conditions and a fading fiscal stimulus. Read Report and Watch Video
Global Economic Outlook 2019: Landing the Plane
The global economy looks poised to slow moderately from 3.8% in 2018 to 3.5% next year in Goldman Sachs Research’s view, led by deceleration in the US and further softening in China. Read Report