Goldman Sachs economists and experts share insights on macro trends shaping the global economy.
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What Can Credit Markets Tell Us About the Chances of a US Recession?
Lotfi Karoui of Goldman Sachs Research explains what today’s credit markets indicate about the likelihood of a US recession. Listen Now
Learning from a Century of US Recessions
A review of the last 100 years of US recessions suggests that they can be boiled down to five major causes: industrial shocks, oil supply shocks, inflationary overheating followed by aggressive Fed tightening, private sector financial imbalances, and fiscal tightening. Read Report
Asia Economic Outlook 2019: Everything in Moderation
Goldman Sachs Research expects below-trend growth in the Asia-Pacific region in 2019 as financial conditions tighten and global growth slows. Read Report and Watch Video
China Outlook 2019: Testing Resilience
Goldman Sachs Research projects China’s GDP growth will modestly decline in 2019 as policymakers look to balance mounting debt with the risk of another growth slide. Read Report and Watch Video
European Economic Outlook 2019: Recovery Fatigue
Goldman Sachs Research forecasts European economic growth to slow in 2019 as the benefits from past tailwinds fade. Read Report and Watch Video
US Economic Outlook 2019: The Home Stretch
Goldman Sachs Research forecasts slower US economic growth in 2019 due to tighter financial conditions and a fading fiscal stimulus. Read Report and Watch Video
Global Economic Outlook 2019: Landing the Plane
The global economy looks poised to slow moderately from 3.8% in 2018 to 3.5% next year in Goldman Sachs Research’s view, led by deceleration in the US and further softening in China. Read Report