The French economy was able to keep growing for a large part of 2022 despite a number of challenges. A report from Goldman Sachs Research predicts the country will experience a period of weakness but narrowly avert a recession.
Managing through uncertainty is a business imperative. In recent years, small business owners in the UK have faced the ripple effects of multiple crises, from the Covid-19 pandemic to the war in Ukraine. As the UK faces a potentially long and deep recession, small business owners must, again, plan to withstand a volatile economic climate while seeking, and hoping, to emerge stronger.
Plentiful natural gas supplies and mild weather across Europe are creating optimism that the continent may be able to avoid shortages and blackouts this winter. But is that optimism premature? In this episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, Goldman Sachs Research’s Samantha Dart, a senior energy strategist who focuses on the natural gas markets, and Jari Stehn, our chief European economist, discuss the state of Europe’s energy crisis and its impact on the broader European economy.
After weeks of financial turmoil, the U.K. is expected to slide into a deeper recession than previously forecast, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
The U.K. currency, already buffeted by an energy price shock, traded at a record low against the dollar after the government unveiled a spending plan that some fear could spark higher inflation.
Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group and author of the book, “The Power of Crisis,” discusses the foreign policy implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and shares his insights on a series of challenges that are poised to reshape the global order over the next decade.
Lord Simon Woolley, Co-Founder of Operation Black Vote, discusses the fight for racial equality in the UK, improving political participation and representation, and widening access to higher education.
Investors are increasingly asking if companies are tapping into growth areas such as the energy transition and the waste-reducing circular economy, says Bertie Whitehead, managing director and EMEA head of ESG in Investment Banking at Goldman Sachs. “We used to call these megatrends, but it’s simply growth investing. This is where capital is going.
The tensions between Russia and the rest of Europe over natural gas flows have underscored the unsustainability of the continent’s energy system. But with the right mix of infrastructure investment, Europe can emerge from the upheaval with a system that is cheaper, achieves the continent’s net-zero carbon emissions goals and is more secure.
Can Europe strengthen its energy independence in the face of the Russia-Ukraine crisis without compromising its climate change goals? Goldman Sachs Research uses its Carbonomics framework to model the evolution of Europe’s energy system towards a lower cost, lower imports, lower carbon system.
The euro area economy is starting to look more like the picture in the U.S. and the U.K. – wage growth is accelerating and inflation seems to be getting stickier. Those concerns are pushing the European Central Bank to act faster to tighten monetary policy.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has heightened the uncertainty over food supply, a global market that was already feeling the effects of COVID-19 and the ongoing impact of climate change. With the help of Goldman Sachs Research, we took a closer look at the regions most affected by surging food prices and the increasing cost of agricultural commodities and products.
Compared with other countries, the most disadvantaged in the U.K. are less likely to climb the income ladder and the economically advantaged tend to stay at the top. Covid-19 has increased inequality further, and recent rises in inflation, especially energy costs, are intensifying the problem. In a recent report, Goldman Sachs Research has taken a closer look at the issue, investigating what needs to be done to improve mobility and opportunity for people in the U.K.
Klaus Hommels, founder and chairman of venture capital firm Lakestar, discusses the growth in Europe’s tech ecosystem and the region’s outsized footprint in fintech companies with Clif Marriott, co-head of the Technology, Media and Telecom Group in EMEA at Goldman Sachs
Innovations in the U.S. and China have largely overshadowed Europe's tech scene. But now, thanks to supportive government policies and a surge of private capital, the sector is set to take off. In this episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, Lisa Yang, head of the European Media and Internet Research team, and Alexander Duval, head of Europe Tech Hardware, Semiconductors and Video Games, discuss the drivers behind Europe’s digital acceleration.
Europe’s tech entrepreneurs have arrived. The ecosystem of digital companies has grown twice as fast as in the U.S. during the past seven years, and funding in Europe’s private companies eclipsed $100 billion for the first time in 2021.
How is Europe weaning itself from Russian oil and gas? In this episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, Goldman Sachs Research’s Samantha Dart, senior energy strategist on the commodities team, Alberto Gandolfi, head of the European Utilities Research team, and Michele Della Vigna, head of Natural Resources Research in EMEA, explain the alternatives to — and timing of — Europe’s independence from Russian resources and how these shifts are reshaping the global energy markets.
One year after the launch of the first stage of the European Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation (SFDR), SFDR funds are growing significantly compared to non-ESG counterparts. The GS SUSTAIN team has reviewed the implications of the SFDR regulation and disclosure requirements. Their analysis of the various approaches taken across asset managers concludes that not all Article 8 or 9 funds are created equal, in a good way.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict is a turning point for the energy sector, according to analysis from Goldman Sachs Research. One that is similar to, and potentially greater than, the Fukushima nuclear accident and Libyan civil war concurrence in 2011. In this report, analysts examine this Return of Energy Capex and draw five key conclusions.
As the war between Russia and Ukraine escalates, global commodities markets are going through the most upheaval since the 1973 oil embargo on the U.S. But this time the energy crisis is most acute in Europe, which relies more heavily on Russian exports. And the shock isn’t confined to one commodity. Russia is the second largest commodity producer in the world (behind the U.S.), and the repercussions of its invasion seem to have changed global supply chains overnight. We sat down with Goldman Sachs’ Global Head of Commodity Research Jeff Currie for his view on global commodities and the impact on markets.
The shortage of semiconductor chips is straining global supply chains, causing a drag on the production of an array of products from smartphones to new cars. We spoke to Alexander Duval, a technology analyst in Global Investment Research at Goldman Sachs, after our virtual European Digital Economy Conference to discuss chip production and the impact of the Ukraine-Russia crisis on the sector. He highlighted how a number of European companies at the conference expect tightness in the supply and demand of semis to potentially persist in their particular product areas into early 2023, albeit with some gradual easing in certain types of chips in the second half of this year.
How Conflict in Ukraine, Soaring Inflation and Rapid "Techification" Have Disrupted the World in 2022
At the start of the year, Goldman Sachs Asset Management released Investment Ideas 2022, taking a deep dive into the key themes likely to influence investor behavior. But disruptive forces — such as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine — are constantly evolving, presenting new challenges to the global economy. We sat down with Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s Candice Tse, global head of strategic advisory solutions, and Maria Vassalou, deputy chief investment officer of multi-asset solutions, to look at the impact disruption is having and how investors can navigate it.
Escalating military conflict in Ukraine and the growing realization that imposed sanctions could meaningfully and sustainably reduce Russian exports, even with carve-outs for energy trade, has resulted in oil prices surging to their highest level since 2008. Given Russia’s key role in global energy supply, the global economy could soon be faced with one of the largest energy supply shocks ever. Goldman Sachs Research builds three scenarios in an attempt to provide an estimate of where oil prices are heading.
The invasion of Ukraine and the escalating sanctions on Russia continue to be the dominant driver of markets. Before the start of military action, Goldman Sachs Research estimated how much geopolitical risk premium was priced into a range of global assets and estimated how those assets might move in the case of either a full de-escalation or a version of a scenario where risks flared into outright conflict.
In this episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, Goldman Sachs Research’s Daan Struyven, senior global economist, Peter Oppenheimer, chief global equity strategist, and Kamakshya Trivedi, co-head of Global Foreign Exchange, Interest Rates and Emerging Markets Strategy Research, discuss the implications of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on global economies, equities and emerging markets.
The UK performs poorly on international comparisons for both social mobility and inequality. According to surveys, covid is increasing inequality further, and recent rises in inflation, especially energy costs, are intensifying the problem. But, corporate managements are starting to focus on social issues (encouraged by the flows into ESG funds). Goldman Sachs Research has started to see investment intentions pick up in survey data and the potential to bring back supply locally or make supply chains more resilient may also increase employment opportunities in the UK.
The European Union is aiming to slash greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by the end of this decade compared to 1990 levels, a goal that GS Research says requires a major – and urgent – push to electrify industries from transport to manufacturing. We sat down with Alberto Gandolfi, head of European Utilities Research, to discuss the steps European economies need to take now on their path to net zero.
The EU Taxonomy is ramping up to become the “common green standard” used to credentialize companies’ green revenue and capex as well as investors’ green investments. With the initial climate phase having taken effect, Goldman Sachs Research sees 2022 becoming a critical period of experimentation and engagement between investors and corporates around disclosures and alignment-estimation models leading up to full Taxonomy application from January 1, 2023.
Although the renewed surge in Covid infections is likely to weigh on services activity over the winter, Goldman Sachs Research expects a more manageable hit to European economic activity than last year.
The European Commission has released plans to include some natural gas and nuclear energy power plants as ‘green’ under the existing EU Taxonomy’s Climate Change Mitigation objective. We believe this would help provide some guarantee to Europe’s volatile energy supply as renewables scale and help ensure a smoother transition to a low carbon economy.
Carbonomics: Taking the Temperature of European Corporates - An Implied Temperature Rise (ITR) Toolkit
In this report Goldman Sachs Research leverages their Carbonomics Net Zero Paths to gauge the implied temperature rise of corporate de-carbonization through the lenses of >110 corporates in the 15 most carbon intensive sectors of the European market.
Will the Euro area's unprecedented program of fiscal risk sharing in response to the pandemic, and a new, likely less fiscally conservative, ruling coalition in Germany increase integration, raise growth and improve investor returns in the region? In the latest episode, experts debate whether the current moment will go down as a seized—or (another) missed—opportunity for Euro area integration. Host Allison Nathan, creator and author of the Top of Mind report on which the episode is based, speaks with Goldman Sachs Research’s Jari Stehn, former ECB Chief Economist Otmar Issing, former PM of Italy and President of the EC Romano Prodi and Oxford’s Timothy Garton Ash.
The Euro area's unprecedented program of fiscal risk sharing in response to the pandemic, and a new, likely less fiscally conservative ruling coalition in Germany, looks set to put the region on a path towards increased integration, higher growth, and better investor returns. But whether the current moment will go down as a seized—or (another) missed—opportunity for Euro area integration and growth is Top of Mind.
As natural gas prices hit record highs in Europe and Asia, what does that mean for the broader commodity complex? Goldman Sachs Research’s Damien Courvalin explains the impact of rising prices on energy costs, inflation and economic growth.
John Storey, head of Goldman Sachs’ equities franchise in EMEA, takes stock of market performance over the first half of the year, and discusses themes that will be top of mind for investors through the rest of 2021.
Mutual fund flows into European stocks year-to-date are the strongest since 2015. Goldman Sachs Research’s Sharon Bell explains the factors driving investor interest.
Kene Ejikeme of Goldman Sachs Global Markets discusses the key themes European investors are watching—from the impact of fiscal policy on markets to the “reopening theme”—and how Europe is poised to benefit from a global recovery.
Clif Marriott, co-head of Goldman Sachs’ Technology, Media and Telecom Group in EMEA, discusses what the growing scale and breadth of European tech companies—along with bolder ambitions from European tech founders to grow their businesses to multi-billion dollar valuations—means for the European tech landscape.
The economic outlook for Europe appears to be brightening, but how sustainable is the recovery? Goldman Sachs’ Allison Nathan speaks with Jari Stehn, chief European economist for Goldman Sachs Research, and Richard Privorotsky, manager of European Cash Equities trading in the Global Markets Group, on the prospects for the region’s long-term recovery and how the markets—and investors—are positioned.
The surge in electric vehicle sales is charging up the battery market in Europe, explains Michael Bruun, who invests in companies focused on sustainability for Goldman Sachs Asset Management.
Anna Skoglund of Goldman Sachs’ Investment Banking Division discusses the 25% increase in private equity deal volumes year-over-year, the types of deals and sectors driving this activity, and what the supportive capital markets backdrop means for investing at current valuations.
Lisa Yang, head of the European Media and Internet Research team in Goldman Sachs Research, discusses her recent report on the acceleration of Europe’s digital economy and the emergence of European digital champions.
In this episode of Talks at GS, broadcaster and bestselling author Afua Hirsch discusses her exploration of race and identity while writing her novel Brit(ish), and the public dialogue on racial equity in the UK today.
In Europe there are some tantalising signs of progress on women’s contribution to the economy: most notably, participation rates for women in the workforce have risen dramatically and continue to move up. In many European countries they are now above rates in the US.
Anthony Gutman, global co-head of Goldman Sachs’ Investment Banking Services, discusses European corporate sentiment for the second half of 2020, including a renewed focus on strategic activity as well as an emphasis on corporate responsibility.
Elizabeth Martin, head of EMEA Equities Execution Services and Systematic Market Making, discusses the evolving liquidity landscape, the advancement of electronic trading and how European clients are navigating the capital markets heading into the second half of the year.
In this episode of Talks at GS, Doreen Lawrence, Baroness Lawrence of Clarendon, discusses her work campaigning for justice following her son Stephen’s 1993 murder and her views on race relations today.
Alberto Gandolfi, head of European Utilities for Goldman Sachs Research, discusses the potential of the European Commission’s Green Deal to reshape the European economy and transform energy consumption from manufacturing to transportation.
In this episode of Talks at GS, David Lammy, member of Parliament for Tottenham, discusses race relations in the UK, his work campaigning for social justice and the impact of the coronavirus on the Asian, Black and minority ethnic communities.
Lars Humble, who focuses on debt syndication for sovereigns, supranationals and agencies within Goldman Sachs’ Financing Group, discusses the impact of the pandemic on the role of multinational development agencies and the shift in investor sentiment around social bonds.
Jernej Omahen, head of the European Financial Institutions Group for Goldman Sachs Research, shares what was discussed at the firm’s 24th European Financials Conference—a virtual gathering of bank executives, investors, regulators, and policymakers.
Philippe Camu, global co-head of the infrastructure investment group, talks about how the next big public-works projects are more focused on fiber and data centers than traditional construction like roads and airports.
Alain Durré, Senior European Economist for Goldman Sachs Research, discusses the impact of the European Central Bank’s decision to expand its bond-buying program, and the prospect of fiscal stimulus by EU member countries.
In this episode of Talks at GS, Goldman Sachs Research’s Peter Oppenheimer discusses his new book, The Long Good Buy: Analyzing Cycles in the Markets, his assessment of the current market cycle, and his views on how the policy response to COVID-19 will impact the future of the markets.
Clif Marriott, co-head of Goldman Sachs’ Technology, Media and Telecom Group in EMEA, discusses the evolution of Europe’s tech industry and how the crisis is accelerating trends across the sector, including growth in e-commerce and collaboration software as well as the digitization of content.
Kevin Daly, co-head of Goldman Sachs’ CEEMEA Economics Research, discusses the impact of the pandemic on emerging markets government deficit and debt levels, and the fiscal adjustments that are likely to be required in the aftermath of the crisis.
Axel Hoefer, Goldman Sachs’ head of auto industry coverage in Europe, discusses the impact of coronavirus on the global demand for cars and the outlook for manufacturing as production restarts in some countries.
Richard Gnodde, chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs International, discusses how business leaders in Europe are thinking about their corporate planning and decision-making in response to the economic downturn.
José Manuel Barroso, chairman of Goldman Sachs International and former president of the European Commission, weighs in on the economic relief package endorsed by European leaders.
Kathleen Hughes, global head of Liquidity Solutions in Goldman Sachs Asset Management, discusses the emerging focus on money markets and short-duration investing as businesses look to navigate the current market environment.
Michele Della Vigna, Goldman Sachs Research’s head of EMEA natural resources, discusses the dual challenges the world’s oil producers are facing from coronavirus and a battle for market share, which has caused a global imbalance in the supply and demand for oil.
In this episode of Talks at GS, Goldman Sachs’ Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani discusses the economic and public health implications of coronavirus for Europe with a number of leading health and economic experts.
Andrew Roberts discusses lessons learned from studying some of the most consequential leaders in history, from Napoleon Bonaparte to Margaret Thatcher, and the qualities that shaped their tenures, particularly during times of war. Watch Video
Infectious disease expert Peter Piot discusses the origination, spread and management of COVID-19, lessons from his prior work discovering and managing the Ebola virus, and steps to take to prepare for future outbreaks.
Alastair Campbell, political strategist and former director of communications for Prime Minister Tony Blair, discusses his experience with depression, how he copes with the disease and his perspective on mental health issues among young people. Watch Video
Goldman Sachs’ Michele Della Vigna explains his latest research on the future of energy in the age of climate change.
Green energy is making up a growing portion of the global energy mix, and Europe is leading the way. Goldman Sachs Research explains how technological advances have slashed the costs of wind and solar power, helping fuel the region’s renewables boom.
Former BP CEO Lord John Browne discusses the future of the fossil fuel industry, why engineering has been so critical to advancing civilization, and how social policy is adapting to those advances. Watch Video
Climate change, advancing technologies and shifting workforce dynamics are among the top priorities for small businesses in the UK, according to survey results released by Goldman Sachs’ 10,000 Small Businesses UK at the firm’s Business 2030 conference held in London earlier this month. We spoke with Goldman Sachs’ Charlotte Keenan, who leads the firm’s Office of Corporate Engagement for the EMEA and APAC regions, to share how entrepreneurs are running their businesses in the face of global uncertainty. Learn More
Faced with geopolitical uncertainty, a slowing economy and negative yields, more than 180 German companies shared their strategies and challenges with investors at Goldman Sachs’ eighth annual German Corporate Conference, held in Munich last month. We sat down with Goldman Sachs’ Michael Schmitz, co-head of the Securities Division in Germany and Austria, to discuss key takeaways from the event. Learn More
Computer scientist Stuart J. Russell discusses how artificial intelligence is shaping both the future of innovation and the future of work and his views on how society can adapt to those changes. Watch Video
Europe’s slow economic growth and low inflation have led many to wonder if the region is at risk of “Japanification.” In this episode of The Long & Short of It, Sharon Bell of Goldman Sachs Research explains some of the lessons investors can take from Japan’s recent past to better understand Europe’s future. Watch Video
Kaspar Basse discusses his experience launching and running Joe & The Juice over the last 17 years, his efforts to bring continuous innovation to the industry and why he says people are the secret to his success. Watch Video
Leda Braga discusses founding and building the culture of the investing firm Systematica Investments, how science and technology drives her investment strategy, and her observations on the latest trends in the systematic investing landscape. Watch Video
The shift to a low-carbon economy is changing the competitive landscape of the energy industry. Goldman Sachs Research explains how big oil and utility companies are finding new opportunities as they transition to a renewable future. Watch Video
Ahead of this week's 23rd annual European Financials Conference in Paris -- one of Goldman Sachs' longest-running events in Europe -- we sat down with Jernej Omahen, head of European Financials Research, to discuss the challenges facing Europe's banks and insurers, from earnings pressures, to political and macro uncertainty, to competition from fintech startups. Learn More
Niklas Zennström, CEO and Founding Partner of Atomico and founder of Skype, discusses his journey as a tech entrepreneur and his views on how the tech community is putting a new focus on addressing broader societal issues. Watch Video
Saadia Zahidi, author of Fifty Million Rising, discusses the “quiet revolution” of Muslim women entering the workforce, and the cultural and economic shifts it is causing throughout the Muslim world. Watch Video
From AI to mobility, we asked leading figures at the Goldman Sachs Disruptive Technology Symposium in London what they see as the next big technology trend of the future. Watch Video
Dame Ellen MacArthur discusses her world record-breaking sailing career and her current efforts to create a more “circular” economy, where resources and power recirculate and regenerate to eliminate plastic waste and pollution. Watch Video
Fashion designer Anya Hindmarch discusses the innovation driving her fashion business, the storytelling in her designs and how technology continues to change the way she markets her products to the consumer. Watch Video